INVEST 98L: FL East Coast: Discussions & Images

[cpdaman]

well the fort lauderdale feature will get drawn up ( the mid level low) but i'm not sure the key west LLC will be moving to NE rapidly any time soon, actually today it has drifted slightly south since this morning.

i remember WXMAN57 had a developing NW caribean system w/ a strong gradient (from mid atlantic high pressure) late this weekend

i wonder if the key west low will play any part in this or wether it will just wither away (more likely IMO)

1. it does look a lil better to me on ir2 and their is new convection just east of the center (running N-S from north coast of cuba)

2. pressures have risen though in the keys, but this could be due to it drifting more SSE

[americanrebel]

So I guess nothing is going on with this system. And everybody is worried about #13 and Karen.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270259
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1070 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.

[BigA]

Interesting. A lot of the models seem to have it move northeast, then south, then back west. Shear looks less in the region than it was earlier today. This seems like an intriguing setup as to whether it will be caught by the trough or left to sit east of North Carolina.

[americanrebel]

What is the system heading towards Cuba coming off of Hispanolia? is that 97L or 98 L

[Dean4Storms]

Can certainly still make out a spin at the surface this late evening south of Key West and it appears to be drifting slowly SSW. Meanwhile what appears to be a mid-level spin east of FT. Lauderdale appears to have deepening convection. This may indeed form a LLC later or on Thurs out east of Florida if this convection persists as it does appear to be moving off to the NE as the models indicate.


I wonder if this remnant low south of Key West is not our culprit in the Gulf come next week and could even be enhanced by 97L once it arrives?

[bwhorton2007]

right now i see nothing perhaps an invest was placed too early? Untill i see organised
persistant showers and thunderstorms this area gets a no go from me.

[PhillyWX]

Interesting. A lot of the models seem to have it move northeast, then south, then back west. Shear looks less in the region than it was earlier today. This seems like an intriguing setup as to whether it will be caught by the trough or left to sit east of North Carolina.

It will likely get absorbed by the trough. You're dealing with tropical models that don't handle frontal boundaries well. This system is also outside of the tropics and can be prone to greater errors by the tropical models. I would look at the NAM and GFS as well in this situation.

[Meso]

ABNT20 KNHC 270914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 970 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD BE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST-CENTRAL COAST...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS DIMINISHED.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Thunder44]

Visible imagery shows a LLC forming just east of Central Fl coast:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

It's fighting synoptic elongation vs the attempt to form over the Gulf Stream.

[HURAKAN]

813
ABNT20 KNHC 271513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES
EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT BECOME ABSORBED BY
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT.

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING FOR A HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[DanKellFla]

Poof....

Hopefully, that is as bad as it will get for Florida this year.

[wxman57]

Bones is a bit late, sorry:

[BigA]

Isn't it still up on the NRL site?

[HURAKAN]

Isn't it still up on the NRL site?

Still there!!

[chadtm80]

Still there but have not updated models in 24 hours.. Best track hasnt been updated either.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Bones is a bit late, sorry:

No!!! Don't die on me 98L. WHY!!!??? Why dost thou die???

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE
DAY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

You can stick a fork on it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

gOOD BYE 98L you funny
ol critter