Still - that was my earlier thinking about the forecast of a "late La Nina" - even if it did take place (it now seems to be in progress), late-season conditions become less and less favorable...
Folks have to remember that La Nina or no, the Fall season is not delayed, in order for late-seaon activity to take place (in fact, it helps to end hurricane season), so, hopefully La Nina came too late for it to be of any consequence - we'll see...
P.S. As someone else on this board mentioned yesterday - hurricane season appeared to only have a three-week period of favorable conditions (during Dean and Felix) - the remainder of the season, before and after that period, seems to be (or was) very unfavorable - no one, from Key West to Brownsville, is complaining ('cept a few folks here - LOL)...
Not too much out there...
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>>P.S. As someone else on this board mentioned yesterday - hurricane season appeared to only have a three-week period of favorable conditions (during Dean and Felix) - the remainder of the season, before and after that period, seems to be (or was) very unfavorable - no one, from Key West to Brownsville, is complaining ('cept a few folks here - LOL)...
That was a completely bogus interpretation of the season, although I didn't address it with that poster. 2007 has been very active with a long way to go (might get to 16 or 17 depressions at least). And when you're talking about a close-in season, many of those systems will be sheared. The only system that really fits in with the posters thoughts was TD #10.
Steve
That was a completely bogus interpretation of the season, although I didn't address it with that poster. 2007 has been very active with a long way to go (might get to 16 or 17 depressions at least). And when you're talking about a close-in season, many of those systems will be sheared. The only system that really fits in with the posters thoughts was TD #10.
Steve
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
At this point, we've had 13 tropical systems, but, of the 13, 10 were minimal tropical storms or depressions, so, I would not say the poster's statement was bogus, since that is an unusually high number of weak systems (thankfully)...
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
I agree with Frank2. It can't be ignored that a large number of those storms were just technical storms that were badly sheared and badly lacking in convection and moisture. This can correctly be generally considered "negative". The only strong storms this year were under strong ridges in the Caribbean.
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>>At this point, we've had 13 tropical systems, but, of the 13, 10 were minimal tropical storms or depressions, so, I would not say the poster's statement was bogus, since that is an unusually high number of weak systems (thankfully)...
>>I agree with Frank2. It can't be ignored that a large number of those storms were just technical storms that were badly sheared and badly lacking in convection and moisture. This can correctly be generally considered "negative". The only strong storms this year were under strong ridges in the Caribbean.
Key is, "at this point." This does not in any way, shape or form equate to "there were only 3 weeks of favorable conditions." There were favorable conditions every single day of the season. It just so happens that areas that might have been favorable didn't have development. It was a universal statement that was bogus which is why I called it what it that.
But...
Just "technical" storms? Okay, well let's wait and see how the season finishes up before making final or universal prognostications. I'm okay with, 'the season generally featured weak or sheared systems butted up against upper troughs (or whatever the case may be), but posters have been ringing the death knell on 2007 since June. Yes, since June. And July. And August. And as recently as September 10th. Not every season is going to have 1 Category 5 much less 2 that made landfall. Some seasons may feature more hurricanes than others. Some may be Atlantic seasons, some Gulf, some East Coast, etc. You have to wait until the entirety of the season is done before tallying up the score (or at least when it's obvious the season is over). As it stands now, we're at 11/3/2. A 'normal' season is 11/6/2 (as defined by NOAA). We have a long way to go. If we end up with 15 named storms where only 3 were "technical hurricanes", would anyone say the season was impotent if there were 7 landfalling tropical storms? Or will statements like that be qualified to state that many of the storms didn't get going because they formed too close to land, faced poor positioning with upper level lows or what have you? That's what I'm talking about. Because despite the fact that there are only a depression and a tropical storm out there right now, there are areas of the Atlantic favorable and capable of supporting substantially more.
We don't yet know how many more hurricanes we'll see, but the first person that says 17/3/2 was the result of 3 weeks of favorable conditions is only kidding themselves. "Favorable" being the operative word. If conditions are such that "favorable" led to development of more storms but they were weaker, then that person should have said, "conditions weren't favorable for every possible threat to turn into a Category 5 storm." And I think everyone would be fine with that although what would be the point in even saying it? Same thing here. What's the point? To downplay the season before we even know what it was? I don't get it or the reasoning behind even making those kinds of statements except for someone to be a wannabe expert or be on the record for their guru-like proclimations. IMHO, it's the ultimate in e-testosterone to do that kind of thing. Someone is going to be right, but how many of those someones are research climatoligists? I'd suggest none. They're wanting recognition or whatever. That's bogus too. Lay people like most of us have to earn their credibility. And that might come from being right 20% or less of the time but being able to recognize threats when they're out there. JMO and no knock on you Frank. I know you have a side agenda with this season, but you weren't the one who flatly stated that the season was prime for only 3 weeks. You did agree with it. And it was wrong unless you're specifically talking about 3 weeks where we'd see south-running, landfalling Category 5 systems. And that's not what was said.
Steve
>>I agree with Frank2. It can't be ignored that a large number of those storms were just technical storms that were badly sheared and badly lacking in convection and moisture. This can correctly be generally considered "negative". The only strong storms this year were under strong ridges in the Caribbean.
Key is, "at this point." This does not in any way, shape or form equate to "there were only 3 weeks of favorable conditions." There were favorable conditions every single day of the season. It just so happens that areas that might have been favorable didn't have development. It was a universal statement that was bogus which is why I called it what it that.
But...
Just "technical" storms? Okay, well let's wait and see how the season finishes up before making final or universal prognostications. I'm okay with, 'the season generally featured weak or sheared systems butted up against upper troughs (or whatever the case may be), but posters have been ringing the death knell on 2007 since June. Yes, since June. And July. And August. And as recently as September 10th. Not every season is going to have 1 Category 5 much less 2 that made landfall. Some seasons may feature more hurricanes than others. Some may be Atlantic seasons, some Gulf, some East Coast, etc. You have to wait until the entirety of the season is done before tallying up the score (or at least when it's obvious the season is over). As it stands now, we're at 11/3/2. A 'normal' season is 11/6/2 (as defined by NOAA). We have a long way to go. If we end up with 15 named storms where only 3 were "technical hurricanes", would anyone say the season was impotent if there were 7 landfalling tropical storms? Or will statements like that be qualified to state that many of the storms didn't get going because they formed too close to land, faced poor positioning with upper level lows or what have you? That's what I'm talking about. Because despite the fact that there are only a depression and a tropical storm out there right now, there are areas of the Atlantic favorable and capable of supporting substantially more.
We don't yet know how many more hurricanes we'll see, but the first person that says 17/3/2 was the result of 3 weeks of favorable conditions is only kidding themselves. "Favorable" being the operative word. If conditions are such that "favorable" led to development of more storms but they were weaker, then that person should have said, "conditions weren't favorable for every possible threat to turn into a Category 5 storm." And I think everyone would be fine with that although what would be the point in even saying it? Same thing here. What's the point? To downplay the season before we even know what it was? I don't get it or the reasoning behind even making those kinds of statements except for someone to be a wannabe expert or be on the record for their guru-like proclimations. IMHO, it's the ultimate in e-testosterone to do that kind of thing. Someone is going to be right, but how many of those someones are research climatoligists? I'd suggest none. They're wanting recognition or whatever. That's bogus too. Lay people like most of us have to earn their credibility. And that might come from being right 20% or less of the time but being able to recognize threats when they're out there. JMO and no knock on you Frank. I know you have a side agenda with this season, but you weren't the one who flatly stated that the season was prime for only 3 weeks. You did agree with it. And it was wrong unless you're specifically talking about 3 weeks where we'd see south-running, landfalling Category 5 systems. And that's not what was said.
Steve
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
Season cancel!!!!! 
Actually I'd understand these "bust season" claims if it weren't for the TWO Category 5's that caused extensive damage in Mexico and Central America. The rest of the storms haven't been very remarkable for this decade's standards (and yes, that would include Humberto).
Still, I'd rather not comment on the flip-flopping posts from a certain group of people who have been all along complaining about their state not being leveled (yet) by a major hurricane on this season.
Actually I'd understand these "bust season" claims if it weren't for the TWO Category 5's that caused extensive damage in Mexico and Central America. The rest of the storms haven't been very remarkable for this decade's standards (and yes, that would include Humberto).
Still, I'd rather not comment on the flip-flopping posts from a certain group of people who have been all along complaining about their state not being leveled (yet) by a major hurricane on this season.
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
For me this was a remarkable season just from Dean alone - then we had Felix! But there seems to be an undefined atmospheric that is keeping the Atlantic hostile from last year to this year - despite SST's.
Since the Caribbean seems to be the hot spot this year for strong cyclones, I'm looking down there for the next big one.
Since the Caribbean seems to be the hot spot this year for strong cyclones, I'm looking down there for the next big one.
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
I'm up very early this morning - don't think I've ever been the only one on this site (good to see that everyone is getting some sleep)...
Late last evening I heard about Lorenzo's surprising increase in intensity - it sounds similar to Humberto...
Now that this system is inland, and, Karen having really weakened this morning, there really isn't much else out there at this time (even TWC mentioned that last evening), so....
Personally - sure, a forming hurricane can get my blood pressure going, but, what it means to so many is something else - I don't think some here realize all the serious problems that something like this can bring to millions of people, so, while it can be exciting to see, it's better when the tropics are quiet...
From what I'm learning as I get older - we should give thanks anytime trouble does not happen...
As for the season - I'd be foolish to ever say when it's going to end (as my late Sister would say about the end of hurricane season - "Frank, only God knows that answer"), but, conditions (aside from a limited area here and there) seem to now be fairly hostile, so, it's probably pretty safe to say that it won't be too much longer before the season is over...
We'll see what happens...
Have a good day, everyone...
Frank
Late last evening I heard about Lorenzo's surprising increase in intensity - it sounds similar to Humberto...
Now that this system is inland, and, Karen having really weakened this morning, there really isn't much else out there at this time (even TWC mentioned that last evening), so....
Personally - sure, a forming hurricane can get my blood pressure going, but, what it means to so many is something else - I don't think some here realize all the serious problems that something like this can bring to millions of people, so, while it can be exciting to see, it's better when the tropics are quiet...
From what I'm learning as I get older - we should give thanks anytime trouble does not happen...
As for the season - I'd be foolish to ever say when it's going to end (as my late Sister would say about the end of hurricane season - "Frank, only God knows that answer"), but, conditions (aside from a limited area here and there) seem to now be fairly hostile, so, it's probably pretty safe to say that it won't be too much longer before the season is over...
We'll see what happens...
Have a good day, everyone...
Frank
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
Frank2 wrote:I'm up very early this morning - don't think I've ever been the only one on this site (good to see that everyone is getting some sleep)...
Late last evening I heard about Lorenzo's surprising increase in intensity - it sounds similar to Humberto...
Now that this system is inland, and, Karen having really weakened this morning, there really isn't much else out there at this time (even TWC mentioned that last evening), so....
Personally - sure, a forming hurricane can get my blood pressure going, but, what it means to so many is something else - I don't think some here realize all the serious problems that something like this can bring to millions of people, so, while it can be exciting to see, it's better when the tropics are quiet...
From what I'm learning as I get older - we should give thanks anytime trouble does not happen...
As for the season - I'd be foolish to ever say when it's going to end (as my late Sister would say about the end of hurricane season - "Frank, only God knows that answer"), but, conditions (aside from a limited area here and there) seem to now be fairly hostile, so, it's probably pretty safe to say that it won't be too much longer before the season is over...
We'll see what happens...
Have a good day, everyone...
Frank
Frank u r the most dilusional man i have ever seen....
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Emmett_Brown
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
Hey, he can always hope. As for nothing going on, that is pretty much true. Tropics are busy with disturbances, but hurricanes have been a rare breed so far. As for the season being over, I dont think it is. My gutt says that we will get 2 majors in October in the Carribean. It has been the most favorable area this year, and we are just getting ready for the second peak.
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Td14 now formed, so we've had 7 systems upgraded in September to tropical storm status, also one TD and also TD14 which may well become a TS as well...so you CANNOT call this an inactive September, in fact its not that far from record breakingly active in terms of tropical storms.
Funny considering we were meant to have an early end in early September?
Funny considering we were meant to have an early end in early September?
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
Dilusional, no - hopeful, si...
Guess I just recall those terrible days after Andrew, when people in Homestead were fainting from being without food and water for several days, or, in the days after Katrina, when a news crew came upon a family who were pushing a cart - that contained a deceased member of their family, because they could not find a funeral home that was not closed or flooded out, so, as odd as this might sound, it's hard for me not to hope for a peaceful end to each season...
As Steve said, one day I'll be right - granted, we might be carving the Thanksgiving turkey, or, it'll be snowing in Jacksonville, but...
LOL
Guess I just recall those terrible days after Andrew, when people in Homestead were fainting from being without food and water for several days, or, in the days after Katrina, when a news crew came upon a family who were pushing a cart - that contained a deceased member of their family, because they could not find a funeral home that was not closed or flooded out, so, as odd as this might sound, it's hard for me not to hope for a peaceful end to each season...
As Steve said, one day I'll be right - granted, we might be carving the Thanksgiving turkey, or, it'll be snowing in Jacksonville, but...
LOL
Last edited by Frank2 on Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
gilbert88 wrote:Season cancel!!!!!
Actually I'd understand these "bust season" claims if it weren't for the TWO Category 5's that caused extensive damage in Mexico and Central America. The rest of the storms haven't been very remarkable for this decade's standards (and yes, that would include Humberto).
Still, I'd rather not comment on the flip-flopping posts from a certain group of people who have been all along complaining about their state not being leveled (yet) by a major hurricane on this season.
I am certain that Absolutely no one on here wants a severe hurricane.
A minimal tropical storm is fun to watch but anything stronger no thanks.
This thread is merely a delineation of observations and facts concerning the
season. We all take different positions and debate them.
The posts here are not meant as complaints, but may seem
assertive because I have to take into account the fact that
there are many that strongly oppose my viewpoint on this issue.
So certainly no one is complaining about wanting to get hit.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Frank2 wrote:I'm up very early this morning - don't think I've ever been the only one on this site (good to see that everyone is getting some sleep)...
Late last evening I heard about Lorenzo's surprising increase in intensity - it sounds similar to Humberto...
Now that this system is inland, and, Karen having really weakened this morning, there really isn't much else out there at this time (even TWC mentioned that last evening), so....
Personally - sure, a forming hurricane can get my blood pressure going, but, what it means to so many is something else - I don't think some here realize all the serious problems that something like this can bring to millions of people, so, while it can be exciting to see, it's better when the tropics are quiet...
From what I'm learning as I get older - we should give thanks anytime trouble does not happen...
As for the season - I'd be foolish to ever say when it's going to end (as my late Sister would say about the end of hurricane season - "Frank, only God knows that answer"), but, conditions (aside from a limited area here and there) seem to now be fairly hostile, so, it's probably pretty safe to say that it won't be too much longer before the season is over...
We'll see what happens...
Have a good day, everyone...
Frank
Frank u r the most dilusional man i have ever seen....
Frank is correct about the hostile conditions.
That is scientific evidence supporting his claims.
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
Thanks - I wouldn't have commented at all if there were major systems on the map, but, aside from Dean and Felix (I hardly posted at all during those times - that's my way of saying that it's a serious situation), there hasn't been a major system all season, aside from the two systems mentioned...
Some became upset because my original post here mentioned not much out there - even though there were two or three systems (invests and actual depressions or storms) on the map at the same time, but...
But, the truth was that none of these systems (except for Lorenzo, at the last minute) really amounted to anything, and, that was the reason I first posted...
If they had been three intensifying systems at the same time, on the other hand, I wouldn't have posted this topic at all...
Also, I was trying (not too well, apparently) to quell the many NOLA-type guesses, and, per my old friends from that area, it's New Orleans, not NOLA (I hate media-ese). NOLA sounds like the Florida company that sprays for bugs (Truly NOLen)...
Anyway, that's my explanation...
Have a nice weekend, everyone...
Frank
Some became upset because my original post here mentioned not much out there - even though there were two or three systems (invests and actual depressions or storms) on the map at the same time, but...
But, the truth was that none of these systems (except for Lorenzo, at the last minute) really amounted to anything, and, that was the reason I first posted...
If they had been three intensifying systems at the same time, on the other hand, I wouldn't have posted this topic at all...
Also, I was trying (not too well, apparently) to quell the many NOLA-type guesses, and, per my old friends from that area, it's New Orleans, not NOLA (I hate media-ese). NOLA sounds like the Florida company that sprays for bugs (Truly NOLen)...
Anyway, that's my explanation...
Have a nice weekend, everyone...
Frank
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Re: Not too much out there (today)...
For sure - this is from Melissa's TCD:
It's interesting that the professional folks continue to say that "we now entering (or are in) a La Nina pattern", but, it sure doesn't look like it - if anything, it seems like we are still in an El Nino pattern (even though the Pacific ocean temps do not indicate this)...
Even TWC alluded to this last night, saying that this has been "an exceptional hurricane season" - of the 14 tropical systems (or 13 named systems), two were Category 5 hurricanes, two were "short-fuse" Category 1 hurricanes (twin brothers Humberto and Lorenzo), but, the rest were well-sheared tropical storms (or tropical storms that became well-sheared)...
Each hurricane season is unique unto itself, that is for certain...
P.S. Florida is seeing it's first cool front this weekend - and heavy snows in the mountain west, so...
P.P.S. There is some talk about a low forming in the central Bahamas, but, that discussion sounds very similar to what was said in the days before TD10 formed in the same area...
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...
It's interesting that the professional folks continue to say that "we now entering (or are in) a La Nina pattern", but, it sure doesn't look like it - if anything, it seems like we are still in an El Nino pattern (even though the Pacific ocean temps do not indicate this)...
Even TWC alluded to this last night, saying that this has been "an exceptional hurricane season" - of the 14 tropical systems (or 13 named systems), two were Category 5 hurricanes, two were "short-fuse" Category 1 hurricanes (twin brothers Humberto and Lorenzo), but, the rest were well-sheared tropical storms (or tropical storms that became well-sheared)...
Each hurricane season is unique unto itself, that is for certain...
P.S. Florida is seeing it's first cool front this weekend - and heavy snows in the mountain west, so...
P.P.S. There is some talk about a low forming in the central Bahamas, but, that discussion sounds very similar to what was said in the days before TD10 formed in the same area...
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