Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[frederic79]

Tell me if I have the potential setup straight for next week. Late Friday or early Saturday a strong cold front enters the Gulf from the NW. It lingers until around Monday while low pressure and/or the remnants of 97L develops somewhere near Cuba/Yucatan Channel. Whatever it becomes is slowly nudged toward the central/eastern Gulf Coast. This occurs because the blocking high over the southeast CONUS slides east and the ridge, whose axis is now centered off the Eastern Seaboard, guides the developing cyclone towards the Gulf Coastal states. Is this sort of what the Euro depicted a day or so ago?

[Big O]

Tell me if I have the potential setup straight for next week. Late Friday or early Saturday a strong cold front enters the Gulf from the NW. It lingers until around Monday while low pressure and/or the remnants of 97L develops somewhere near Cuba/Yucatan Channel. Whatever it becomes is slowly nudged toward the central/eastern Gulf Coast. This occurs because the blocking high over the southeast CONUS slides east and the ridge, whose axis is now centered off the Eastern Seaboard, guides the developing cyclone towards the Gulf Coastal states. Is this sort of what the Euro depicted a day or so ago?

Today's 12Z ECMWF appears to have a stronger ridge anchored over the Eastern and possibly the Central Gulf of Mexico. This run shows a TC forming in the extreme NW Carribean or SE GOM and moving due west to a position off the Texas coast by Day 10.

I'm not sure if I buy this given the time of year (i.e., climatology). My gut still tells me central or NE GOM landfall if this potential system ever develops.

[Dean4Storms]

From NWS Mobile, they mention this low.........

FXUS64 KMOB 262100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]: A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A
NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT GET ABSORBED BY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LW TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND COOL
AIR DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY MORNING WHEN LOOKING AT 950 MB THETA-E FIELDS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED ON RADAR
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR SUNSET...BUT REMAIN OVER THE GULF
WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS TIME SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CLEARING SKIES AND NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. /22

&&

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]: CENTER OF LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO CUT BACK OR ELIMINATE
POPS ALL TOGETHER. GFS ALSO HAS UPPER RIDGE REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN INTERESTING DEEP LOW FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING...THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AROUND MIDWEEK. /22

&&

MARINE: COMPLEX SFC PATTERN OVER SERN STATES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LATEST SFC MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA RIDGING WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF
THE MARINE AREA...TD13 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. TD13 IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD...AND THE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST. AS THE KEYS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...THE
SERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SWITCH TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SMALL SEA STATE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
BY NEXT MONDAY...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
AND BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY. 12/DS

[ROCK]

FWIW- the EURO now the 18GFS show 1009 low in the CGOM at 162hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tell me if I have the potential setup straight for next week. Late Friday or early Saturday a strong cold front enters the Gulf from the NW. It lingers until around Monday while low pressure and/or the remnants of 97L develops somewhere near Cuba/Yucatan Channel. Whatever it becomes is slowly nudged toward the central/eastern Gulf Coast. This occurs because the blocking high over the southeast CONUS slides east and the ridge, whose axis is now centered off the Eastern Seaboard, guides the developing cyclone towards the Gulf Coastal states. Is this sort of what the Euro depicted a day or so ago?

Today's 12Z ECMWF appears to have a stronger ridge anchored over the Eastern and possibly the Central Gulf of Mexico. This run shows a TC forming in the extreme NW Carribean or SE GOM and moving due west to a position off the Texas coast by Day 10.

I'm not sure if I buy this given the time of year (i.e., climatology). My gut still tells me central or NE GOM landfall if this potential system ever develops.

With 2 hurricanes after this date hitting Texas in seven decades, you won't go broke betting against a Texas landfall for any storm or potential storm in 2007.


Only a little over 2 months before I start watching the snow cover GFS maps from AccuWeather. In 2004, although it lost it for a few days in the middle, the 10 to 15 day GFS on most runs did a good job calling the dusting of snow that fell on my car and palm trees on Christmas Eve.

[Meso]

06z GFS :

[ronjon]

Meso, you beat me to it but I'll post another time slice of the 06z GFS anyway. Both the 00z and 06z GFS runs today develop a tropical cyclone in the SE GOM and slowly move it west and then north to near LA by the middle of next week. Should get interesting around here if that occurs. This is the system that wxman57 alluded to a couple of days ago.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like we could easily be dealing with a SW Louisiana storm out of this. It might even make it as far west as SE Texas...which is very possible with the ridge in place...but for now I will hold back on that considering the time of year. Hopefully this is TX and SW LA's last threat for the year though. I am really ready to stop worrying about the tropics and to get more in my "winter mode". lol.

[hurricanetrack]

Look at the 200mb levels- another one of THOSE again. Upper low practically right on top of it and then it's nothing but shear city from there.

120 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

180 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

This season is about as bad as it can get in terms of tropical cyclones developing in the wrong place for them to ever become more than something we speculate about on this board. Dean and Felix were obviously the exact opposites when conditions were actually favorable. That lasted only three weeks. Ever since, the Basin has been about as hostile as you could ever see. But hey- that's better than the alternative, right?

[flwxwatcher]

Excerpt from the HPC discussion on possible development.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
729 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

VALID 12Z MON OCT 01 2007 - 12Z THU OCT 04 2007

...ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR MORNING PRELIM UPDATE...
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD/FLORIDA/BAHAMAS

ALL MODELS LEAVE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE BASE OF AN EXITING NRN
STREAM TROF AND SUBTROPICAL WEAKNESS BETWEEN GULF MEX AND MS
VALLEY RIDGING AND RIDGING EWD IN THE ATLC.
CANADIAN MODEL EVER AGGRESIVE WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS CONTS TO
DAILY GENERATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA. MOST OF THE TIME
WAY OVERDONE BUT THE MODEL HINTS AT FAVORABLE CONDS FOR
CYCLOGENESIS TROPICAL OR NOT. ALL OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA FROM DAYS 4 TO
7. EXCLUDING THE DAILY OVERDONE CANADIAN WITH ITS HURRICANE THERE
REMAINS TWO CAMPS..GFS AND NOGAPS TAKING A WEAK LOW WWD THRU THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GULF MEXICO AND THE ECMWF/GFS ENS MEAN
AND UKMET WHICH DEVELOP MORE LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAHAMAS. THE
ECMWF/UKMET MID LEVELS ARE PREFERRED WITH THE UKMET SFC DEPICTION
AT 144 HRS INDICATING A SIG LOW IN THE NRN BAHAMAS CAPPED BY HIGH
PRESSURE NWD OFF THE NEW ENG COAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROF NWD FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SWD TO THE
BAHAMAS LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET
WOULD DRIFT ANY SFC LOW IN THIS AREA NWD. HPC UPDATED PROGS HAVE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NWD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAYS 6 AND
7 WITH A CONTD INVERTED SFC TROF OFFSHORE. PHASE DIAGRAMMING OF
THE UKMET INDICATES A HYBRID SYSTEM WHILE TROPICAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WOULD POTENTIALLY
HAVE WEAK SHEAR DAYS 5 AND 6 TUES/WED. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SCHECK/ROSENSTEIN

[Portastorm]

With 2 hurricanes after this date hitting Texas in seven decades, you won't go broke betting against a Texas landfall for any storm or potential storm in 2007.

I agree Ed. Think the Texas tropical season for 2007 is just about done. Even with this late season peak (thanks to La Nina), looks like the action will be east and/or south of us.

[alienstorm]

If we look at ex-97, there is an area of UL High centered south of Hispanoila this morning with a ridge extending northward to the eastern bahamas. The CMC, GFS, FSU MM5 all develop something in 3 - 5 days either south of Cuba or over the Central/Western Bahamas.

If we look at the area south of Hispanoila there seems to be some consolidation of weather, time will tell but it looks that this would be the area for development in the next several days. The weekend should prove to be interesting.

[Steve]

ECMWF switched over to a Bahamian/East of Florida solution in the 00z runs. FWIW

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like this is a situation that is going to take a few days to sort out. Maybe by this week-end we might have a handle on were we could get development and the path it might take.

[Sanibel]

Feels like a perfect set-up for the late season Caribbean storm we always watch for every season. Atlantic is cooking up waves that try to get going but get knocked down by shear and dryness. This is a good situation for a Caribbean storm to form in the only area this year that bred strong, moist, stacked systems.

[Vortex]

All Global models indicate lowering pressures and possible tropical development this weekend in the Bahamas....

9/27 00Z Global Models


FSU
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... hour=120hr

UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=132hr

NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=168

CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=108hr

GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

EURO

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092700!!/

[Lifesgud2]

not happening.

[caneman]

Care to share some of your wisdom and insight?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

whatever happens i just want to experience
a 40 mph minimal tropical storm, Nothing stronger hitting me before the season is out. maybe in october.

Tropical Storm barry was awesome to watch the wind and rain blow,
and so was last year's 40 mph tropical storm alberto.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Every single time I put my Hopes in the bahamas this season
I have been dissapointed. The bahamas system could develop, but
no, stupid shear or some other synoptic demon has to rip it apart.
Ugh. I am a stormchaser and I want to chase and experience Storms,
and I'm sorry but 2007 has just sucked with no tropical storms for
me to experience. I don't want hurricanes just minimal tropical storms
so I can do video stunts with them. But no...this season has to suck.

I judge a season based on what I can experience and get on video.

You know I WISH something would develop in the bahamas
and be a tropical storm and cross florida giving some 40 mph
max sustained winds that would rock.

For the past 3 weeks I have rooted for weak minimal
tropical storms to form in the bahamas and move across
florida so I can finally get a tropical system on video!!!

I hope this materializes or I will feel dissappointed.
Yes I am a loser.