Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271413
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 20 20070927
135400 1424N 04734W 7812 02234 0099 +147 +140 082025 026 043 000 00
135500 1428N 04736W 7811 02238 0102 +147 +139 084023 024 043 000 00
135600 1432N 04738W 7810 02239 0107 +144 +138 088022 023 042 000 00
135700 1435N 04741W 7812 02241 0113 +141 +139 083031 033 043 000 00
135800 1439N 04743W 7809 02248 0121 +135 +135 081028 030 042 000 00
135900 1443N 04745W 7811 02248 0120 +137 +137 083024 026 041 000 00
140000 1446N 04747W 7811 02249 0121 +138 +138 076023 026 039 000 00
140100 1450N 04750W 7811 02248 0121 +139 +138 074022 025 041 000 00
140200 1454N 04752W 7811 02250 0122 +141 +135 066027 028 040 000 00
140300 1457N 04754W 7811 02252 0125 +139 +134 065028 029 041 000 00
140400 1501N 04756W 7811 02251 0126 +138 +129 063029 030 041 000 00
140500 1504N 04758W 7812 02250 0124 +143 +117 070032 033 040 000 00
140600 1508N 04801W 7811 02254 0126 +143 +111 067036 037 040 000 00
140700 1511N 04803W 7811 02253 0132 +139 +107 067037 037 039 000 00
140800 1514N 04806W 7580 02511 0132 +127 +105 069034 036 037 001 00
140900 1513N 04810W 7296 02834 0136 +105 +099 067032 037 039 000 00
141000 1512N 04815W 6936 03255 0120 +092 +074 055026 027 040 000 00
141100 1512N 04820W 6602 03662 0110 +071 +058 053023 024 038 000 00
141200 1511N 04824W 6405 03915 0112 +058 +040 049022 024 034 000 00
141300 1510N 04829W 6184 04205 0105 +049 +005 039020 022 033 000 00

Plane ascending and returning to Barbados.

[gatorcane]

wow the NHC will really have to adjust the track left. She is nothing but a nake swirl......heading with the low-level flow West....

[Gustywind]

NRL site latest
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[HenkL]

A final VDM:

URNT12 KWBC 271400
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1339Z
B. 13 DEG 32 MIN N
47 DEG 3 MIN W
C. NA
D. 31 KT
E. 200 DEG 08 NM
F. 199 DEG 32 KT
G. 143 DEG 38 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 18 C/2141 M
J. 19 C/2139 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/NA
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0212A KAREN OB 13 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 1159Z
MAX SFMR WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 1105Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT
46 KT SFC WIND OUTBOUND LEG

[HURAKAN]

437
WTNT32 KNHC 271434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2007

...KAREN DISORGANIZED BUT MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 920
MILES...1485 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

436
WTNT42 KNHC 271434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

THIS MORNING'S NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER EXPERIMENTAL MISSION
REVEALED AN SFMR MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 56 KT...A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 57 KT ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND ANOTHER PEAK WIND ABOUT 20 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE WIND PROFILE RESEMBLES LAST NIGHT'S MISSION WHICH ALSO
INDICATED AN UNUSUAL HORIZONTAL WIND PROFILE. BASED ON THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.

THE 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS...SHIPS...AND THE LOGISTICAL GROWTH EQUATION MODEL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...BUT MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARD...THERE ARE GENERALLY TWO
DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTERS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW MOTION INDICATIVE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW...WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS REFLECT A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INFLUENCED
BY AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND OF 37 KT AROUND
1300 UTC...ABOUT 80 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 13.7N 47.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 14.7N 48.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 50.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 52.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 53.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 55.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 57.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 58.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

Karen doesnt look like she will make it for a few more days

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2007

...KAREN DISORGANIZED BUT MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 920
MILES...1485 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA


000
WTNT42 KNHC 271434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

THIS MORNING'S NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER EXPERIMENTAL MISSION
REVEALED AN SFMR MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 56 KT...A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 57 KT ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND ANOTHER PEAK WIND ABOUT 20 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE WIND PROFILE RESEMBLES LAST NIGHT'S MISSION WHICH ALSO
INDICATED AN UNUSUAL HORIZONTAL WIND PROFILE. BASED ON THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.

THE 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS...SHIPS...AND THE LOGISTICAL GROWTH EQUATION MODEL. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...BUT MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARD...THERE ARE GENERALLY TWO
DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTERS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW MOTION INDICATIVE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW...WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS REFLECT A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INFLUENCED
BY AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND OF 37 KT AROUND
1300 UTC...ABOUT 80 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 13.7N 47.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 14.7N 48.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 50.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 52.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 53.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 55.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 57.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 58.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[CrazyC83]

On its current track with a slight NW bend, it can get out of the shear in as little as 24 hours...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[fci]

This season has really been amazing.
Karen looked incredible two days ago; well organized, about the size of Texas.
Now, like Ingrid and Invests before her; she runs into the shear wall that will most likely be her demise.
Two Cat 5's (Dean and Feliz) hit almost the same sparsely populated spot in a short period time
(And I am NOT minimizing the damage and hardship that these two Cat 5's caused; please do not attack me if I don't write a one page note about how much I feel for them. I do but just mentioning that this has been a relatively non-destrucive season FROM THE CONUS standpoint should not elict a chastising!)
Pretty unique season with a guardian angel so far for the East Coast.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't count out Karen just yet. If she can get to the area around 25N/55W, that is an area of high heat content and minimal shear. And we still have a 55 kt storm...

[Sanibel]

I really thought Karen would go hurricane no doubt. Shear has been a shocker this year. Like last year, the main Atlantic is hostile.

[Gustywind]

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
Hum...weakning trend pressures are not falling right now ... not good for Karen !

[CrazyC83]

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
Hum...weakning trend pressures are not falling right now ... not good for Karen !

The weakening should continue for the next 24 hours or so. The GFDL brings Karen up to a Cat 4 now as she exits the shear. However, the estimated 990mb pressure yesterday was probably a bit overestimated I think.

Her current structure reminds me of Alberto last year...

[Derek Ortt]

The MDR produced 2 cat 5's... could not have been that hostile

[Lifesgud2]

This will be poof soon...US is protected from ANY storms this year. Yee hawww

[tolakram]

This will be poof soon...US is protected from ANY storms this year. Yee hawww

A fun thing to do, in order to get some perspective, is to review other years activity to see what's possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_At ... ne_seasons

[curtadams]

The weakening should continue for the next 24 hours or so. The GFDL brings Karen up to a Cat 4 now as she exits the shear. However, the estimated 990mb pressure yesterday was probably a bit overestimated I think.

Her current structure reminds me of Alberto last year...

Doesn't remind me of Alberto. Alberto generally had one area of strong convection, usually associated with the LLC albeit sheared. Karen right now has an arc of convection at some distance and nothing that looks directly associated with the LLC. IMO she looks subtropical.

[CrazyC83]

All it takes is one bad storm to ruin an entire year. There could be only a small number of significant storms, but if one is like Katrina, it would make everything else forgotten...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there any way shear can decrease...will
Karen make it through this hostile environment-

It was looking so awesome yesterday when it was
almost a hurricane!

[HURAKAN]

Houston, Karen has a problem!!

[CrazyC83]

Is there any way shear can decrease...will
Karen make it through this hostile environment-

It was looking so awesome yesterday when it was
almost a hurricane!

She looks to be about halfway through the shear. Slightly left of northwest (between NW and WNW) is an area of little shear and high heat content.



If she gets there (and I think she will), there is a good chance she can become strong again. Shear starts to drop in about 175 miles (since the decreasing trend suggests it is weakening as far south as 17°N) and becomes like nothing by 300 miles.