Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Steve H.]

Actually I think this will happen, at least the ingredients should be there. This is taking in the mess that ole 97L has (which is looking healthy again) and general lowering of pressures in the SW Atlantic and Caribbean whilst heights rise along the east coast/NE and shear lessens. Even the NAM is showing something there now, so there is a lot of model support. I'm not saying this is the one, but I think '07 is going to leave its mark somewhere in the GOM/SE US before all is said and done.

[BigA]

A solid model consensus, but the North Carolina Outer Banks can be thankful that a model consensus does not mean its carved in stone (TS Gabrielle vs 970 mb Gabrielle). Nevertheless, the models are worth listening to, and its definitely something that might form. The 64,000 dollar question is what the shear in the area is going to be. Does anyone have an idea about that?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Actually I think this will happen, at least the ingredients should be there. This is taking in the mess that ole 97L has (which is looking healthy again) and general lowering of pressures in the SW Atlantic and Caribbean whilst heights rise along the east coast/NE and shear lessens. Even the NAM is showing something there now, so there is a lot of model support. I'm not saying this is the one, but I think '07 is going to leave its mark somewhere in the GOM/SE US before all is said and done.

I hope so. I don't want any devastation that's why I root for
tropical storms but not hurricanes. So I'll hope that this will
FINALLY be my chance to get a tropical storm on action on video-
that's if it decides to cross florida. I love and am obsessed like crazy with
these storms.

[HURAKAN]

Except Allison-like storms!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

true an allison would be horrible but a quick moving weak tropical storm
is awesome.

[Frank2]

Here's a link to an experimental FSU wind shear forecast model (white areas are forecast to be unfavorable for TC development) - it'll take a minute or so to load the loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~hrw22/2006-10-25_12Z_SHEAR.htm

doesn't look too favorable to me...

[AJC3]

Looking at both the H50 and H25 forecasts for days 3-6 from the ECM, UKM, and GFS, all three of these global models are forecasting a synoptic pattern that evolves in a similar manner to what formed the sloppy baroclinic mess than eventually became TD 10: a short wave trough digging down over the eastern CONUS/western ATLC, some vort energy dropping S-SW out of the base of this trough and getting trapped underneath whatever ridging develops in the wake of the departing short wave trough.

Big differences in the evolution of the pattern both surface and aloft, and it's still several days away. For instance, the GFS shows stronger retrogression of the H50 low, whereas the ECM's H50 low remains stationary over the Bahamas. For now, I think it would be more accurate to say that any low pressure development near FL early next week would be more baroclinic (non-tropical) than tropical, then...perhaps...having some potential to eventually acquire some tropical characteristics.

[caneman]

Frank,

I really appreicate your hard work and how much you really wish hurricane season would just go away but you do realize that the feature you posted was for the last week of October 2006 don't you?

[Blown Away]

Here's a link to an experimental FSU wind shear forecast model (white areas are forecast to be unfavorable for TC development) - it'll take a minute or so to load the loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~hrw22/2006-10-25_12Z_SHEAR.htm

doesn't look too favorable to me...

Great model, what is causing all the shear across the SE CONUS?

[hurricanetrack]

The fact that is was October 25, 2006. That would have to be my guess since that is what the DATE SAYS.

But- even if Frank posted the wrong animation, it matters little. There will be enough shear around to keep anything from going hog wild. Just check any run of the GFS 200mb field as of late. And I don't want to hear "oh, well, it's the GFS, so it can't be right". Why? Because it has been right so far. How's that hurricane in Houston doing? Oh ya, it was a 4 mph tropical depression in Florida. GFS got that one right.

And Ingrid? Still waiting for it to come back- GFS got that one too.

Point is, the US models are not showing anything close to the classic set up for a hurricane anywhere near the U.S. It is apparently not in the cards this season even though the La Nina in the Pacific is quite impressive. I am looking forward to seeing how the experts explain what happened this season and why it turned out so poor as opposed to the dire predictions being made as late as early August.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not much of a chance of happening. Way to much shear.

[ronjon]

12Z GFS continues to develop a GOM tropical cyclone next week. It's origin is not from the Bahamas but rather the NW caribbean.

[LaBreeze]

How much confidence does everyone have in this?

[Frank2]

Oh - that's pretty funny - well, the date of the run matched exactly with the present period, so, it's no wonder I thought it was current....

Being at work, I can't spend more than a very short time looking at what I'm looking at...

Still, it's probably about the same, shear-wise...

P.S. I agree about inaccurate dire predictions made by some in the business - last year was even worse in that sense (at least early in the season), and, their fear created so much anxiety, that those at the South Florida Water Management District unwisely decided to release 3 or 4 feet of Lake water early in the seaon - which only intensified the current water crisis in South Florida...

[Steve]

>>How much confidence does everyone have in this?

Me? Not much. I see what it's doing and certanily acknolwege the possibility (was what 57 put out on Monday), but in 2007, you don't want to prognosticate too early because you're probably going to be wrong. Simply knowing there is a threat potential and following or watching that threat should be sufficient until such time as something materializes. In the case of Humberto, that would have been too late. In most other cases, that's just what you have to do. Take TD #10 for instance. Everything was there, but it just never got strong. As a routine participant in a 100 page thread, everything was on the table. But until something does or doesn't happen, you just can't know. You can only guess. Do I think there may be a significant tropical system in the Bahamas, south of Florida or in the Gulf next week? Possibly.



Steve

[Steve]

>>Not much of a chance of happening. Way to much shear.

Whatever you meant to say, see the 10/25/06 date. Whether that's indicative of current vertical shear or not, well I don't know. I can't find a current representative model output from the MM5 for now.

Steve

[Frank2]

Steve, I just answered that issue (see above)...

[hurricanetrack]

Upper level winds suggest another hybrid weak system like TD 10 was. Certainly don't see how it could be much more than that...

[Steve]

>>Upper level winds suggest another hybrid weak system like TD 10 was. Certainly don't see how it could be much more than that...

Not sure how much confidence I have in shear forecasts 5-6 days out. We do know that there will be a large area of high pressure in the SE US. Whether there is a displaced or negatively placed upper system in the way or positioned such as to be a negative enhancement (as per GFS) remains to be seen. Most of the pros on here have said time and time again not to trust shear forecasts more than 36 hours out. That's who I listen to. Again, seeing or recognizing the potential is what matters 5 or 6 days out. Then you can adjust plans or whatever accordingly.

Steve

[Steve]

Gotcha, but the quote was for Matt. He's been known to go hog wild sometimes.

Steve