Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271629
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20070927
162100 2303N 09302W 3924 07774 0459 -160 -370 046014 015 000 003 00
162130 2300N 09304W 3926 07772 0458 -160 -366 046015 015 000 002 00
162200 2258N 09305W 3926 07774 0458 -160 -390 049016 017 000 002 00
162230 2256N 09307W 3924 07776 0460 -159 -394 057015 015 001 001 00
162300 2254N 09309W 3927 07773 0459 -155 -362 061015 015 000 002 00
162330 2252N 09311W 3923 07781 0459 -159 -364 061016 016 000 002 00
162400 2250N 09313W 3927 07769 0458 -160 -368 057018 018 000 002 00
162430 2248N 09314W 3924 07778 0459 -160 -367 063017 017 000 002 00
162500 2246N 09316W 3927 07770 0459 -160 -313 067016 017 000 002 00
162530 2244N 09318W 3924 07776 0459 -160 -319 066018 018 000 003 00
162600 2242N 09320W 3926 07766 0458 -160 -340 071018 018 000 003 00
162630 2240N 09322W 3926 07778 0458 -160 -358 070018 019 000 002 00
162700 2238N 09324W 3927 07775 0458 -158 -359 068019 019 000 002 00
162730 2236N 09326W 3930 07762 0456 -155 -361 067020 020 000 002 00
162800 2234N 09327W 3923 07770 0454 -157 -378 067020 021 000 003 00
162830 2232N 09329W 3926 07769 0454 -155 -383 070020 020 000 002 00
162900 2230N 09331W 4009 07614 0446 -148 -355 068020 020 002 002 00
162930 2228N 09333W 4184 07287 0425 -125 -312 069021 021 001 002 00
163000 2226N 09334W 4358 06976 0403 -110 -224 073020 021 001 002 00
163030 2225N 09336W 4523 06693 0388 -090 -249 081018 018 000 003 00
$$

Beginning the descent.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah Wxman57. Just when it catchs its convegents at the surface the shear comes back. Its funny how that works.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271639
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20070927
163100 2223N 09338W 4685 06423 0370 -077 -165 092018 018 005 001 00
163130 2221N 09339W 4841 06171 0360 -060 -133 098019 020 011 000 00
163200 2219N 09341W 5015 05895 0341 -045 -099 091020 020 014 000 00
163230 2218N 09343W 5198 05607 0320 -032 -085 087016 018 010 001 00
163300 2216N 09344W 5381 05331 0301 -014 -074 085015 016 019 000 00
163330 2214N 09346W 5574 05044 0117 -007 -043 078016 016 016 000 00
163400 2213N 09347W 5801 04725 0117 +008 -024 082016 016 015 000 00
163430 2211N 09349W 6017 04441 0119 +029 -008 088015 016 012 001 00
163500 2209N 09350W 6236 04147 0124 +051 +000 081015 015 016 000 00
163530 2208N 09352W 6458 03857 0128 +065 +012 083014 014 015 000 00
163600 2206N 09353W 6681 03579 0122 +085 +031 091014 015 015 000 03
163630 2205N 09355W 6990 03197 0127 +101 +057 114010 011 999 999 03
163700 2203N 09357W 7277 02854 0118 +124 +069 137011 012 999 999 03
163730 2202N 09358W 7578 02511 0119 +140 +096 113014 016 999 999 03
163800 2200N 09400W 7886 02175 0138 +143 +116 119015 016 015 000 03
163830 2159N 09401W 8097 01948 0134 +159 +113 138012 013 014 000 00
163900 2157N 09403W 8307 01727 0128 +170 +170 165013 015 020 000 00
163930 2156N 09404W 8540 01491 9990 +185 +999 165012 015 013 000 05
164000 2155N 09406W 8883 01161 9990 +192 +999 165009 010 999 999 05
164030 2153N 09407W 9177 00865 0132 +206 +198 171011 012 008 000 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271649
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20070927
164100 2152N 09408W 9355 00696 0127 +215 +202 179012 012 006 001 03
164130 2151N 09410W 9557 00496 0116 +224 +221 180013 013 004 001 03
164200 2150N 09411W 9593 00461 0110 +227 +220 178013 013 010 000 00
164230 2149N 09413W 9585 00470 0112 +230 +203 179014 015 011 000 03
164300 2148N 09414W 9597 00459 0113 +230 +210 187014 014 007 000 00
164330 2147N 09415W 9598 00457 0111 +229 +215 185014 015 011 000 00
164400 2146N 09416W 9591 00462 0111 +225 +219 179014 015 005 001 00
164430 2144N 09417W 9613 00443 0110 +228 +221 176015 016 009 000 00
164500 2143N 09418W 9591 00459 0109 +226 +223 172015 017 007 003 00
164530 2142N 09419W 9598 00454 0109 +226 +223 172019 020 016 000 00
164600 2141N 09420W 9591 00459 0107 +227 +222 172018 019 016 002 00
164630 2140N 09422W 9596 00454 0106 +226 +220 173019 020 015 002 00
164700 2139N 09423W 9596 00454 0106 +225 +217 173019 019 021 000 00
164730 2138N 09424W 9595 00454 0105 +227 +212 174019 020 022 000 00
164800 2137N 09425W 9593 00455 0105 +228 +212 179019 019 019 002 00
164830 2136N 09426W 9592 00457 0105 +225 +219 177020 021 023 000 00
164900 2135N 09427W 9593 00454 0105 +225 +220 181021 022 021 002 00
164930 2134N 09428W 9592 00457 0105 +223 +221 175021 022 023 001 00
165000 2133N 09429W 9599 00450 0105 +224 +221 173022 023 026 000 00
165030 2132N 09430W 9594 00453 0104 +224 +214 177021 022 024 001 00
$$

Now at operational altitude. 26 kt SFMR.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271659
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20070927
165100 2131N 09431W 9593 00455 0104 +225 +211 179023 023 024 002 00
165130 2130N 09433W 9591 00455 0103 +226 +211 181025 026 024 000 00
165200 2129N 09434W 9592 00454 0103 +223 +217 178027 028 024 000 00
165230 2128N 09435W 9595 00451 0102 +226 +209 175028 028 027 000 00
165300 2127N 09436W 9593 00453 0102 +224 +214 177028 029 027 000 00
165330 2126N 09437W 9591 00453 0101 +223 +217 175025 026 029 000 00
165400 2125N 09438W 9595 00450 0102 +222 +217 174024 025 027 000 00
165430 2124N 09439W 9593 00454 0103 +221 +221 177022 023 026 000 00
165500 2123N 09440W 9596 00451 0103 +221 +220 174024 025 026 000 00
165530 2122N 09441W 9595 00450 0102 +222 +219 175023 024 027 000 00
165600 2121N 09442W 9626 00435 0110 +223 +221 172022 024 026 000 00
165630 2120N 09443W 9750 00318 0111 +233 +228 171023 025 025 001 00
165700 2119N 09444W 9772 00298 0110 +235 +224 172026 027 027 000 00
165730 2118N 09446W 9768 00301 0109 +235 +228 171024 025 029 000 00
165800 2117N 09447W 9771 00298 0109 +235 +227 172024 026 030 000 00
165830 2116N 09448W 9767 00302 0109 +234 +229 174024 025 029 000 00
165900 2115N 09449W 9773 00295 0108 +235 +224 175025 026 028 000 00
165930 2114N 09450W 9767 00300 0108 +235 +226 171025 025 029 000 00
170000 2113N 09451W 9775 00293 0108 +235 +226 167025 026 031 000 00
170030 2112N 09452W 9766 00301 0107 +234 +229 165024 025 028 000 00
$$

31 kt SFMR

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271709
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20070927
170100 2111N 09453W 9773 00293 0106 +232 +228 163026 027 029 000 00
170130 2110N 09454W 9768 00297 0105 +231 +226 162027 028 028 000 00
170200 2109N 09455W 9770 00296 0105 +231 +226 164027 028 027 000 00
170230 2108N 09457W 9770 00294 0104 +229 +227 162030 031 027 000 00
170300 2107N 09458W 9768 00296 0104 +224 +224 166026 026 029 000 00
170330 2106N 09459W 9772 00290 0103 +221 +221 164026 027 030 004 00
170400 2105N 09500W 9772 00290 0105 +211 +211 168030 033 034 006 00
170430 2104N 09501W 9766 00295 0101 +226 +226 172033 035 032 001 00
170500 2103N 09502W 9770 00292 0100 +230 +228 171032 033 033 000 00
170530 2102N 09503W 9772 00288 0100 +229 +223 170032 033 034 000 03
170600 2102N 09505W 9762 00296 0098 +228 +225 167031 032 032 000 00
170630 2102N 09506W 9770 00286 0097 +228 +225 163031 032 033 000 00
170700 2102N 09508W 9774 00283 0095 +228 +225 163031 031 032 000 00
170730 2101N 09510W 9767 00289 0093 +228 +225 160031 032 032 000 00
170800 2101N 09511W 9768 00284 0091 +226 +226 157032 032 030 000 03
170830 2101N 09513W 9770 00281 0089 +226 +226 154031 031 031 000 00
170900 2100N 09514W 9770 00280 0086 +228 +228 153033 034 034 000 00
170930 2100N 09516W 9771 00276 0085 +226 +226 150034 035 034 000 00
171000 2059N 09518W 9771 00272 0082 +227 +227 147034 035 034 000 00
171030 2059N 09519W 9769 00273 0079 +229 +229 149033 034 034 000 03
$$

35 kt FL, 34 kt SFMR. Hello Lorenzo! 1008mb pressure so far.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271719
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20070927
171100 2058N 09521W 9770 00271 0077 +229 +229 147033 034 034 000 00
171130 2057N 09522W 9772 00266 0074 +230 +230 146032 033 034 000 00
171200 2057N 09522W 9772 00266 0071 +230 +230 142030 030 032 000 00
171230 2056N 09525W 9771 00262 0067 +235 +232 133029 030 034 000 03
171300 2055N 09526W 9780 00252 0065 +236 +235 134026 028 031 000 00
171330 2054N 09527W 9767 00261 0063 +237 +231 123023 024 028 000 00
171400 2052N 09529W 9774 00255 0060 +249 +222 119019 020 030 000 03
171430 2051N 09529W 9767 00259 0059 +247 +224 101011 014 025 000 00
171500 2050N 09530W 9765 00261 0059 +241 +230 095009 010 021 000 03
171530 2048N 09530W 9772 00255 0061 +237 +232 101011 012 024 000 00
171600 2046N 09530W 9771 00259 0063 +232 +232 101013 014 025 000 00
171630 2045N 09530W 9768 00261 0064 +234 +232 113011 011 022 000 00
171700 2043N 09531W 9777 00253 0064 +236 +230 117010 011 021 000 03
171730 2042N 09531W 9772 00259 0065 +225 +225 156016 018 027 000 00
171800 2041N 09532W 9769 00255 0060 +223 +223 144018 020 026 002 00
171830 2039N 09533W 9774 00249 0059 +221 +221 142015 018 025 000 00
171900 2038N 09534W 9772 00252 0057 +234 +233 126013 014 025 000 00
171930 2037N 09535W 9770 00252 0055 +242 +225 114011 015 021 000 03
172000 2035N 09536W 9772 00249 0051 +249 +221 086012 013 021 000 00
172030 2034N 09536W 9771 00247 0050 +248 +221 055011 013 019 001 03
$$

Near the center, pressure 1005mb. SFMR still 34 kt.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think because it has 34 knots SFMR that it is a tropical storm yet. Why, because tropical depression ten had 38-39 knot SFMR readings...In had 40+ flight level winds. In it was never upgraded.

[HURAKAN]

Holding its convection so far. Dense and compact.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271729
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20070927
172100 2033N 09537W 9771 00249 0051 +240 +229 070010 012 024 000 00
172130 2031N 09537W 9777 00240 0049 +234 +234 111007 009 024 001 00
172200 2030N 09538W 9627 00372 0047 +226 +226 145013 016 028 002 03
172230 2028N 09538W 9589 00405 0044 +230 +230 136009 015 028 003 03
172300 2027N 09539W 9590 00404 0041 +230 +230 052014 022 025 004 03
172330 2026N 09540W 9591 00403 0043 +228 +228 030023 024 025 004 03
172400 2025N 09542W 9592 00403 0047 +208 +208 017030 034 041 012 00
172430 2024N 09544W 9588 00413 0050 +212 +212 359043 045 041 009 00
172500 2023N 09545W 9602 00398 0049 +224 +224 346045 046 041 006 03
172530 2022N 09547W 9593 00407 0050 +226 +226 340047 049 043 005 00
172600 2021N 09548W 9592 00413 0054 +224 +224 335046 049 043 005 00
172630 2021N 09549W 9600 00409 0059 +218 +218 332046 046 040 006 03
172700 2019N 09551W 9585 00425 0062 +225 +225 332046 047 040 005 00
172730 2018N 09552W 9595 00422 0068 +230 +228 330044 044 039 006 00
172800 2017N 09553W 9593 00429 0074 +229 +224 327040 041 039 010 00
172830 2016N 09554W 9591 00432 0079 +220 +220 319035 039 044 017 00
172900 2015N 09555W 9599 00424 0085 +197 +197 296036 039 057 035 03
172930 2014N 09556W 9595 00429 0076 +195 +195 305020 027 060 049 01
173000 2013N 09558W 9576 00436 9990 +191 +999 287035 039 051 052 05
173030 2011N 09558W 9608 00411 9990 +190 +999 263038 043 999 999 05
$$

Pressure 1004mb. 49 kt FL, 44 kt SFMR (highest not suspect)

[WindRunner]

We have Lorenzo folks . . . several 40kt+ SFMR readings in on the last set . . . auto-xtrp puts the pressure at 1004, which could be a smidgeon on the low side.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 271729
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20070927
172100 2033N 09537W 9771 00249 0051 +240 +229 070010 012 024 000 00
172130 2031N 09537W 9777 00240 0049 +234 +234 111007 009 024 001 00
172200 2030N 09538W 9627 00372 0047 +226 +226 145013 016 028 002 03
172230 2028N 09538W 9589 00405 0044 +230 +230 136009 015 028 003 03
172300 2027N 09539W 9590 00404 0041 +230 +230 052014 022 025 004 03
172330 2026N 09540W 9591 00403 0043 +228 +228 030023 024 025 004 03
172400 2025N 09542W 9592 00403 0047 +208 +208 017030 034 041 012 00
172430 2024N 09544W 9588 00413 0050 +212 +212 359043 045 041 009 00
172500 2023N 09545W 9602 00398 0049 +224 +224 346045 046 041 006 03
172530 2022N 09547W 9593 00407 0050 +226 +226 340047 049 043 005 00
172600 2021N 09548W 9592 00413 0054 +224 +224 335046 049 043 005 00
172630 2021N 09549W 9600 00409 0059 +218 +218 332046 046 040 006 03
172700 2019N 09551W 9585 00425 0062 +225 +225 332046 047 040 005 00
172730 2018N 09552W 9595 00422 0068 +230 +228 330044 044 039 006 00
172800 2017N 09553W 9593 00429 0074 +229 +224 327040 041 039 010 00
172830 2016N 09554W 9591 00432 0079 +220 +220 319035 039 044 017 00
172900 2015N 09555W 9599 00424 0085 +197 +197 296036 039 057 035 03
172930 2014N 09556W 9595 00429 0076 +195 +195 305020 027 060 049 01
173000 2013N 09558W 9576 00436 9990 +191 +999 287035 039 051 052 05
173030 2011N 09558W 9608 00411 9990 +190 +999 263038 043 999 999 05

[CrazyC83]

I'd say we have Lorenzo right now with 45 kt winds.

There was a 60 kt SFMR reading but I am disregarding it for now unless the FL winds warrant such. The 49 kt FL winds translate to 44 kt at the surface.

[WindRunner]

Technically, the 60kt SFMR is not suspect either (01 is a flag for T/Td, not SFMR), but logic would say otherwise.

[HURAKAN]

Certainly the best of Lorenzo so far.

[CrazyC83]

Could Lorenzo be bombing out?

[WindRunner]

I'd say we have Lorenzo right now with 45 kt winds.

I don't know how we couldn't . . . unless of course, they take that 60kt wind into account as being representative

[CrazyC83]

I'd say we have Lorenzo right now with 45 kt winds.

I don't know how we couldn't . . . unless of course, they take that 60kt wind into account as being representative

Yeah in which case we almost have Hurricane Lorenzo...but not until FL winds go into the 60s or the pressure gets under 1000 will I consider that.

[srainhoutx]

Could Lorenzo be bombing out?

RECON made it just in time in my humble opinion. Wow!

[WmE]

Well it is certainly a tropical storm. I doubt these 60 kts are correct though.