Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Could Lorenzo be bombing out?

RECON made it just in time in my humble opinion. Wow!

That is just one pass too...

[WindRunner]

I'd say we have Lorenzo right now with 45 kt winds.

I don't know how we couldn't . . . unless of course, they take that 60kt wind into account as being representative

Yeah in which case we almost have Hurricane Lorenzo...but not until FL winds go into the 60s or the pressure gets under 1000 will I consider that.

I don't think the TPC is going to be that crazy . . . though this next set may be interesting . . .

[CrazyC83]

I don't think the TPC is going to be that crazy . . . though this next set may be interesting . . .

Agreed. 1004mb and 45 kt is where I think it is now.

[WindRunner]

Well it is certainly a tropical storm. I doubt these 60 kts are correct though.

To be honest, I don't think so either. But then you can look at the rain rate data (next column over after SFMR winds) and see that the SFMR winds spiked where the rain rates spiked . . . which certainly makes you wonder. The next set of obs will tell for sure.

EDIT: Holy Crap!!!


173100 2010N 09557W 9599 00407 9990 +180 +999 233058 062 062 055 01
173130 2009N 09556W 9606 00401 9990 +179 +999 222061 063 066 054 01
173200 2008N 09555W 9596 00422 9990 +178 +999 228054 057 065 052 01
173230 2007N 09553W 9589 00435 9990 +174 +999 235052 053 066 046 01
173300 2006N 09552W 9597 00433 9990 +174 +999 237050 051 067 045 01
173330 2005N 09551W 9594 00441 9990 +171 +999 239049 050 065 044 01
173400 2003N 09550W 9597 00440 0095 +176 +176 241045 050 063 044 01
173430 2002N 09549W 9595 00437 9990 +179 +999 233043 047 062 047 05

67kts, all unflagged!

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 271739
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20070927
173100 2010N 09557W 9599 00407 9990 +180 +999 233058 062 062 055 01
173130 2009N 09556W 9606 00401 9990 +179 +999 222061 063 066 054 01
173200 2008N 09555W 9596 00422 9990 +178 +999 228054 057 065 052 01
173230 2007N 09553W 9589 00435 9990 +174 +999 235052 053 066 046 01
173300 2006N 09552W 9597 00433 9990 +174 +999 237050 051 067 045 01
173330 2005N 09551W 9594 00441 9990 +171 +999 239049 050 065 044 01
173400 2003N 09550W 9597 00440 0095 +176 +176 241045 050 063 044 01
173430 2002N 09549W 9595 00437 9990 +179 +999 233043 047 062 047 05
173500 2001N 09548W 9587 00439 9990 +179 +999 234043 046 059 040 05
173530 2000N 09547W 9593 00438 0095 +181 +181 229039 041 045 040 01
173600 1959N 09546W 9599 00443 0100 +184 +184 230036 039 048 026 00
173630 1958N 09545W 9592 00442 0095 +183 +183 231035 038 046 018 00
173700 1956N 09544W 9597 00436 0100 +184 +184 232030 032 048 020 00
173730 1955N 09543W 9590 00443 0093 +211 +211 234028 030 036 012 00
173800 1954N 09542W 9609 00438 0099 +207 +207 225024 025 041 010 00
173830 1953N 09541W 9592 00444 0094 +201 +201 224025 026 036 008 00
173900 1951N 09540W 9598 00437 0096 +205 +205 213026 028 036 009 00
173930 1950N 09539W 9591 00442 0093 +207 +207 211027 029 035 009 00
174000 1949N 09538W 9590 00443 0091 +214 +214 206028 029 035 008 00
174030 1948N 09537W 9595 00437 0089 +220 +220 206028 028 034 006 00

67kts SFMR . . . with five unflagged readings over 65kts!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271739
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20070927
173100 2010N 09557W 9599 00407 9990 +180 +999 233058 062 062 055 01
173130 2009N 09556W 9606 00401 9990 +179 +999 222061 063 066 054 01
173200 2008N 09555W 9596 00422 9990 +178 +999 228054 057 065 052 01
173230 2007N 09553W 9589 00435 9990 +174 +999 235052 053 066 046 01
173300 2006N 09552W 9597 00433 9990 +174 +999 237050 051 067 045 01
173330 2005N 09551W 9594 00441 9990 +171 +999 239049 050 065 044 01
173400 2003N 09550W 9597 00440 0095 +176 +176 241045 050 063 044 01
173430 2002N 09549W 9595 00437 9990 +179 +999 233043 047 062 047 05
173500 2001N 09548W 9587 00439 9990 +179 +999 234043 046 059 040 05
173530 2000N 09547W 9593 00438 0095 +181 +181 229039 041 045 040 01
173600 1959N 09546W 9599 00443 0100 +184 +184 230036 039 048 026 00
173630 1958N 09545W 9592 00442 0095 +183 +183 231035 038 046 018 00
173700 1956N 09544W 9597 00436 0100 +184 +184 232030 032 048 020 00
173730 1955N 09543W 9590 00443 0093 +211 +211 234028 030 036 012 00
173800 1954N 09542W 9609 00438 0099 +207 +207 225024 025 041 010 00
173830 1953N 09541W 9592 00444 0094 +201 +201 224025 026 036 008 00
173900 1951N 09540W 9598 00437 0096 +205 +205 213026 028 036 009 00
173930 1950N 09539W 9591 00442 0093 +207 +207 211027 029 035 009 00
174000 1949N 09538W 9590 00443 0091 +214 +214 206028 029 035 008 00
174030 1948N 09537W 9595 00437 0089 +220 +220 206028 028 034 006 00
$$

WHOA!!! Lots of 60s...67 kt SFMR supports Hurricane Lorenzo

[CrazyC83]

Humberto 2!!! Have they ever upgraded anything from a TD to Hurricane???

Special advisory around 1:15 pm CDT I think.

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt expect 60's let alone 50's!

[DESTRUCTION5]

TD to Cane !!! Holy Crap..LOL

[WmE]

Holly, wow that's near hurricane force.

[CrazyC83]

This is absolutely amazing!!! Hurricane Lorenzo!!!

I expect a special advisory soon.

[WindRunner]

Except the NHC isn't even keeping up this time . . . a TD with hurricane force winds isn't something you see every decade . . . I think the last case like this was back in May 1998 or so with that open wave that moved through the DR and Haiti with 50-60kt winds . . . but I may be off on those dates.

[WindRunner]

I don't think because it has 34 knots SFMR that it is a tropical storm yet. Why, because tropical depression ten had 38-39 knot SFMR readings...In had 40+ flight level winds. In it was never upgraded.

Does 67kts SFMR work?

[CrazyC83]

Except the NHC isn't even keeping up this time . . . a TD with hurricane force winds isn't something you see every decade . . . I think the last case like this was back in May 1998 or so with that open wave that moved through the DR and Haiti with 50-60kt winds . . . but I may be off on those dates.

I think they might hold back some, but even still, that is astonishing. But I had that feeling...conditions are ripe for rapid deepening...

[lrak]

where the hect is the swell? Arg!

[Cyclenall]

WHAT!!?!1 I knew it was getting better every hour but not like that! The chances of those 60 readings being errors are not very high either. I think it's Lorenzo 100%.

[WindRunner]

"conditions ARE ripe."

Yep, we sure aren't done yet . . . if it's anything like Humberto, and it should be, we've still got probably 30-40kts more of strengthening to do before landfall . . .

[CrazyC83]

WHAT!!?!1 I knew it was getting better every hour but not like that! The chances of those 60 readings being errors are not very high either. I think it's Lorenzo 100%.

Not just Lorenzo, but Hurricane Lorenzo...

[CrazyC83]

"conditions ARE ripe."

Yep, we sure aren't done yet . . . if it's anything like Humberto, and it should be, we've still got probably 30-40kts more of strengthening to do before landfall . . .

I'd upgrade to Hurricane Warnings on the coast...

My guess: no 1 pm advisory, but instead a 1:15 pm special advisory...

[WmE]

Well if it pulls an Humberto then Cat3 isn't out of question. I doubt it will deepen that fast though, hopefully!!