Well Organized TW in far Eastern Atlantic

Gustywind · #1 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Sep 25, 2007 7:28 pm

Another wave added tonight by the TWD...seems very interresting for the next couple of days...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITEIMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG 19W S OF 18N BASED ON SURFACE DATA...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS.
IN ADDITION...THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS. MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE APEX.

Maybe our next candidate and .... a low may try to form already :eek:

?

hummm that won't be a boring week for sure... :cheesy:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... =RGB,c=AIR

Africa is boiling!!! Look at this thunderstrom activity....late CV season in October down the road :eek:

: Warming global or la Nina :eek:

:you can vote lol but very appetizing for my untrained eyes...or my eyes are deceiving me?
I've noticed that, since Saturday each clusters exiting from Africa is more concentrated in spite of their "small size" but much souther ( Karen)than the month before...just an opinion

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
Do you tkink that this wave has a high potential to be something during the next couple of days?
Thoughts are welcomed...tkanks Gustywind

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:12 am

404
ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

HurricaneMaster_PR · #3 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:29 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES
EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:23 pm

10:30 PM TWO

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

#5 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:29 pm

This one sure ate up the wave ahead of it...

Gustywind · #6 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:24 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. 8-)

SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

Gustywind · #7 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:27 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
24W SOUTH OF 17W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN
LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW
CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS...MAINLY FROM
10N-14N. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. :wink:

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:37 am

Gustywind · #9 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:58 am

Yeah Hurakan nice presentation

Gustywind · #10 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:29 am

Little better organized this morning

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_lc.jpg
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg

#11 Postby **Fego** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:43 am

Loosing some convection but still looking well.

#12 Postby **Fego** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:45 am

MeteoSat 12 UTC

Gustywind · #13 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:14 am

Fego wrote:Loosing some convection but still looking well.

Yeah Fego matter of time give it 24-36h, after that it will be interresting to see if something is really organizing

Gustywind · #14 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:09 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING FOR A HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Gustywind · #15 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:17 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W...AND FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W.

Gustywind · #16 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:12 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERSANDTHUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAVE DECREASED... AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:44 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM
LORENZO...LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

#18 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:52 am

That's 99L. Looks like it developed into a TS overnight by the Cape Verde Islands. Oops! Here's the first visible:

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:56 am

99L IS UP: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=98353&p=1646276#p1646276

Well Organized TW in far Eastern Atlantic

Well Organized TW in far Eastern Atlantic

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Re: Well Organized TW in far Eastern Atlantic: 530 AM TWO page 1

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