Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Huh?!

I'm not in agreement with that at all. I expect continued intensification for at least the next 6-12 hours, and Hurricane Lorenzo by this evening at the latest.

We'll find out who is right soon enough! Let's see who Lorenzo is listening to!

[WindRunner]

I'm really frustrated that they haven't released any dropsondes in the convection yet . . . I'd really like to see a little ground truth that would (hopefully) settle our debate . . . at least for the hour, since things would probably be different beyond that . . .

[KWT]

The only thing I can imagine they are thinking is shear will hve just enough of an effect to help keep strength down, while ther eis explosive convection on the southern side the northern side is pretty void of convection. Even then though you can still readily get a cat-1/2 out of such a structure if the convection is deep enough.

[WindRunner]

This of course has to happen immediately before 3 straight hours of classes . . . I do get a little break come 4, so maybe another special advisory will be out by then? That'd be insane . . . though oddly believable . . .

[CrazyC83]

This of course has to happen immediately before 3 straight hours of classes . . . I do get a little break come 4, so maybe another special advisory will be out by then? That'd be insane . . . though oddly believable . . .

They won't issue a special advisory an hour before the scheduled full advisory. They'd just say "Update: Hurricane Lorenzo" and do the work at 4 pm CDT.

[Derek Ortt]

of coruse this happens when I had to go to NHC

[CrazyC83]

of coruse this happens when I had to go to NHC

It's amazing how bad the tropics can time themselves! I don't think anyone was expecting this much this fast!

[WindRunner]

This of course has to happen immediately before 3 straight hours of classes . . . I do get a little break come 4, so maybe another special advisory will be out by then? That'd be insane . . . though oddly believable . . .

They won't issue a special advisory an hour before the scheduled full advisory. They'd just say "Update: Hurricane Lorenzo" and do the work at 4 pm CDT.

Yeah, I know the NHC would never do it operationally . . . but it doesn't mean the data wouldn't warrant one by then. It'll be interesting to see . . .

[CrazyC83]

This of course has to happen immediately before 3 straight hours of classes . . . I do get a little break come 4, so maybe another special advisory will be out by then? That'd be insane . . . though oddly believable . . .

They won't issue a special advisory an hour before the scheduled full advisory. They'd just say "Update: Hurricane Lorenzo" and do the work at 4 pm CDT.

Yeah, I know the NHC would never do it operationally . . . but it doesn't mean the data wouldn't warrant one by then. It'll be interesting to see . . .

Correct. There would be a quick update stating the new intensity without track updates or anything else.

Using the data available, I'd go 60 kt/1000mb right now.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 271828
XXAA 77188 99205 70957 08205 99002 26639 34523 00016 26440 34523
92702 22838 01012 85439 22257 32012 88999 77999
31313 09608 81818
61616 AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 08
62626 SPL 2048N09571W 1820 MBL WND 35021 AEV 00000 DLM WND 36015
002858 WL150 34523 075 =
XXBB 77188 99205 70957 08205 00002 26639 11894 21235 22864 22858
33850 22257 44845 21456
21212 00002 34523 11951 35519 22923 01511 33892 02012 44880 04506
55858 33010 66845 31514
31313 09608 81818
61616 AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 08
62626 SPL 2048N09571W 1820 MBL WND 35021 AEV 00000 DLM WND 36015
002858 WL150 34523 075 =

Trying to hit the center . . . 1002mb/23kt winds. Can't necessarily reduce the pressure another 2mb based on the winds, though, unless we have some report of a calm center.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271829
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20070927
182100 2030N 09541W 8444 01507 0018 +210 +158 192008 015 029 000 03
182130 2031N 09543W 8415 01533 0012 +214 +152 348004 007 031 000 00
182200 2032N 09544W 8446 01505 0014 +217 +155 028010 015 033 000 00
182230 2033N 09545W 8417 01536 0020 +211 +154 045019 021 033 000 00
182300 2034N 09547W 8437 01517 0019 +217 +146 044019 022 033 000 00
182330 2035N 09548W 8418 01540 0018 +222 +137 051018 020 031 000 00
182400 2037N 09549W 8432 01525 0022 +217 +142 062022 023 030 000 00
182430 2038N 09550W 8435 01529 0029 +214 +145 061021 022 027 001 00
182500 2039N 09552W 8423 01541 0037 +200 +152 062023 025 031 000 00
182530 2040N 09553W 8438 01526 0036 +208 +147 048026 028 032 000 00
182600 2041N 09554W 8424 01542 0038 +204 +151 054030 032 034 000 00
182630 2042N 09556W 8434 01535 0041 +207 +142 049035 036 035 000 00
182700 2044N 09557W 8433 01536 0041 +212 +127 048033 033 035 000 00
182730 2045N 09558W 8431 01543 0044 +211 +128 050032 033 037 000 00
182800 2046N 09559W 8432 01545 0052 +202 +128 048034 035 037 000 00
182830 2047N 09601W 8422 01557 0054 +205 +118 050034 035 038 000 00
182900 2048N 09602W 8432 01550 0057 +205 +130 048032 033 038 000 00
182930 2049N 09603W 8426 01555 0060 +201 +126 045031 032 039 000 00
183000 2050N 09605W 8432 01552 0062 +200 +139 044030 030 041 000 00
183030 2052N 09606W 8428 01558 0067 +194 +150 042035 037 040 000 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271839
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20070927
183100 2053N 09607W 8428 01558 0067 +195 +143 040037 038 040 000 00
183130 2054N 09608W 8432 01555 0069 +193 +144 041037 037 039 000 00
183200 2055N 09610W 8435 01556 0076 +185 +152 040037 038 039 000 00
183230 2056N 09611W 8430 01560 0076 +187 +152 036034 035 039 000 00
183300 2057N 09612W 8428 01565 0079 +184 +153 038035 035 037 000 00
183330 2057N 09612W 8428 01565 0082 +180 +158 038035 035 037 000 00
183400 2059N 09614W 8430 01566 0086 +175 +162 036034 034 035 000 00
183430 2100N 09616W 8428 01569 0089 +172 +167 034035 036 036 000 00
183500 2102N 09617W 8431 01566 0091 +172 +172 033036 037 036 001 00
183530 2103N 09618W 8427 01570 0093 +170 +164 033040 041 035 000 00
183600 2104N 09619W 8430 01571 0094 +174 +156 034039 040 035 000 00
183630 2105N 09621W 8430 01572 0097 +171 +170 031038 038 035 000 00
183700 2106N 09622W 8429 01572 0098 +169 +169 030038 038 035 000 00
183730 2107N 09623W 8432 01572 0097 +172 +167 033038 039 035 000 00
183800 2108N 09624W 8431 01571 0100 +175 +153 030039 040 036 000 00
183830 2109N 09625W 8427 01575 0100 +172 +150 032039 039 034 000 00
183900 2110N 09627W 8434 01576 0103 +174 +154 031037 039 034 000 03
183930 2109N 09628W 8433 01571 0101 +168 +168 028038 039 035 000 03
184000 2108N 09630W 8430 01576 0104 +167 +167 027037 038 037 000 03
184030 2107N 09631W 8439 01567 0099 +173 +166 021034 035 039 000 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 271841
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/18:19:00Z
B. 20 deg 29 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1449 m
D. 69 kt
E. 161 deg 11 nm
F. 220 deg 052 kt
G. 141 deg 020 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. NA C/ 1519 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT SW QUAD 17:31:30 Z

[Chacor]

Ugh. You know what I hate? People bitching. TPC has to find a good compromise, and it'll never please anyone. I'll just say this, if you aren't a pro, please remember to include the disclaimer in any post you make about your thoughts. I'd much rather be reading useful posts than "I think this will be a 70 kt cane" without any support.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271849
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20070927
184100 2105N 09631W 8424 01578 0099 +171 +170 021036 037 038 000 00
184130 2103N 09631W 8437 01565 0100 +169 +162 024039 039 037 001 00
184200 2101N 09631W 8424 01578 0098 +172 +150 025039 040 039 000 00
184230 2059N 09631W 8434 01566 0096 +173 +163 018037 039 038 003 00
184300 2057N 09631W 8445 01555 0097 +165 +160 019039 041 033 004 00
184330 2055N 09631W 8428 01571 0093 +172 +163 014041 043 036 003 00
184400 2053N 09631W 8431 01566 0094 +169 +169 011043 044 037 001 00
184430 2051N 09631W 8426 01571 0097 +163 +163 014044 047 040 002 00
184500 2049N 09631W 8442 01555 0091 +171 +171 012044 046 039 001 00
184530 2047N 09631W 8428 01567 0091 +165 +165 011046 047 039 001 00
184600 2045N 09631W 8416 01577 0091 +161 +161 013045 048 041 003 00
184630 2043N 09632W 8435 01553 0093 +158 +158 014050 052 051 014 03
184700 2041N 09633W 8427 01566 0100 +150 +150 356049 051 050 015 00
184730 2039N 09634W 8428 01565 0097 +156 +156 352041 045 039 008 03
184800 2037N 09634W 8426 01565 0097 +154 +154 357037 039 036 006 03
184830 2035N 09634W 8432 01557 0101 +147 +147 000041 042 035 005 03
184900 2033N 09633W 8425 01563 0090 +161 +161 358042 044 036 004 03
184930 2032N 09632W 8428 01561 0084 +169 +169 358043 045 038 005 03
185000 2030N 09632W 8430 01560 0087 +164 +164 006038 042 039 002 03
185030 2028N 09631W 8429 01558 0082 +170 +170 009034 039 038 001 00
$$

Wind field expanding rapidly.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I don't believe Lorenza may intensify beyond ~65 kts (75 mph), so I'm not entirely disagreeing with the NHC. You can see some UL divergence that has left the LLC partially exposed. Additionally, I must admit I've been too critical of the NHC in recent posts... I was just concerned after the Humberto scenario. If that outcome never occurred, I would have placed all trust in the TPC. I don't want TPC to make mistakes, because I'm concerned about the unnecessary reaction from some people and a certain private meteorological company. Some issues going against hurricane status for Lorenzo include 1) close proximity to land; 2) it is difficult to judge exact 1-min sfc winds in a small tropical storm; and 3) the SFMR values may have been contaminated by heavy precipitation (common in "rabbit out of the hat" Bahia de Campeche systems). The TPC could easily be correct here - it's a tough call.

[Cryomaniac]

Ugh. You know what I hate? People bitching. TPC has to find a good compromise, and it'll never please anyone. I'll just say this, if you aren't a pro, please remember to include the disclaimer in any post you make about your thoughts. I'd much rather be reading useful posts than "I think this will be a 70 kt cane" without any support.

I'm half tempted to say "leave the modding to the mods". But you are pretty well respected here, and you also have a point.

To stay on the topic:

The following forecast is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and as such is not based on any information, meterological, economic or otherwise, it should not be used for any purpose

I'm pretty sure this will become a hurricane, and I think the oil futures people are too, since the price has gone up by $2.56 today, per Kitco.com. It's getting close to $83 a barrel, which is insane.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271900
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20070927
185100 2026N 09631W 8424 01570 0091 +164 +164 002041 044 040 007 00
185130 2024N 09631W 8432 01559 0094 +154 +154 350037 040 052 015 03
185200 2022N 09631W 8446 01536 9990 +149 +999 330043 046 999 999 05
185230 2021N 09629W 8428 01554 0092 +144 +144 335038 041 059 025 05
185300 2020N 09627W 8430 01553 0093 +147 +147 338034 039 056 017 03
185330 2020N 09625W 8435 01550 0082 +166 +166 355039 041 047 010 00
185400 2020N 09624W 8423 01561 0082 +165 +165 350041 042 040 005 00
185430 2019N 09622W 8428 01552 0084 +158 +158 338039 042 039 008 00
185500 2019N 09620W 8430 01550 0080 +162 +162 341044 044 038 007 00
185530 2019N 09618W 8428 01552 0078 +161 +161 339045 047 036 006 00
185600 2018N 09616W 8432 01548 0078 +162 +162 339047 048 038 007 00
185630 2018N 09614W 8424 01552 0076 +162 +162 337046 046 043 008 00
185700 2017N 09612W 8425 01548 0073 +157 +157 336048 052 044 009 00
185730 2017N 09610W 8430 01539 0071 +155 +155 330046 049 045 010 00
185800 2017N 09608W 8429 01537 0065 +161 +161 328046 048 045 008 00
185830 2016N 09606W 8425 01539 0060 +163 +163 327044 047 043 006 00
185900 2015N 09604W 8423 01537 0059 +158 +158 324047 049 047 009 03
185930 2015N 09602W 8415 01542 0061 +152 +152 316045 047 999 999 03
190000 2017N 09601W 8418 01539 0061 +151 +151 323042 043 044 014 00
190030 2018N 09600W 8446 01507 0044 +173 +173 337035 040 042 009 00
$$

59 kt SFMR

[chadtm80]

Sure looking NASTY.. "Gusty" Rainy day in Mexico none the less heh

[Buck]

Whoa... this was quick.