Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Buck]

I would be most worried if I was in Bermuda.

Yep. They sure don't want another Fabian.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Shear is forecasted to lessen in 72 hours so if
karen can keep bursting convection until then there
is a chance it might reintensify to hurricane strength.
The Euro goes insane and on the map of euro is
white which is off the charts like category 3-4
- Trackwise we have to wait in see,
intensity wise---> folks it's going to boil down to
that ridge....

Personally, BERMUDA, the caribbean islands and the
bahamas, and south florida to the carolinas should
watch karen VERY very closely.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With BAMM, UKMET, GFDL, and CMC showing a bend
back west I think the NHC may show a westward Bend in the
track at the 4-5 day period.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no recon flight tonight... it was cancelled as the Doppler data cannot be collected from such a sheared system

[KWT]

Yeah hurakan, even if it misses land there is every chance it could hit Bermuda if it can get to about 60-65W. Florence last year was at 15N around 42-44W and it came close to Bermuda and hit Newfoundland as a powerful extra tropical system.

[cycloneye]

there is no recon flight tonight... it was cancelled as the Doppler data cannot be collected from such a sheared system

Thanks for letting me and the rest know.

[chadtm80]

Those are the latest chris_fit

[KWT]

I suspect they will just cancel out that slight right bend they have at the end of the forecast track.

[Derek Ortt]

Recon was cancelled for tonight... Doppler data could not be collected due to the highly sheared state

I did not receive any e-mails indicating a last minute change to the cancellation

[Derek Ortt]

I am checking my e-mail in the event that there has been a reversal... I found out the info about tonight's flight from the daily HRD briefing

latest word... ALL RECON CANCELLED. Just got th e-mail a few minutes ago

[Derek Ortt]

ALL RECON CANCELLED

[gatorcane]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

[gatorcane]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

[chris_fit]

Those are the latest chris_fit

Guess so! My apologies. I noticed the time of 9AM and figured they were outdated.

Thanks for the heads up.

[canegrl04]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

Interesting that early this week,the cone had Karen making her distinct NW turn by today.Shes not doing that. It is getting scary that the trend now is more toward a US hit

[jasons2k]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

You've said this many, many times so far. You even posted this exact post in the models thread. I think we all know where you stand.

OTOH some of our pro mets in the model thread have commented that this is a 10-day forecast and chances of it verifying are slim.

The only thing that will "scare" people are posts like this.

[gatorcane]

jschlitz the Euro has been applauded as the golden model for the tropics this year. Granted 240 hours is far but it similarly predicted both Dean and Felix.

Now when it shows a threat to the U.S, we discount it? I think the chances are slim but my comment is that just the fact it is showing this is scary considering that I live near Miami.

[SoonerMaximus]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

Interesting that early this week,the cone had Karen making her distinct NW turn by today.Shes not doing that. It is getting scary that the trend now is more toward a US hit

Is this trend left of track largely due to the current weakening and lack of upper atmospheric influence?

[gatorcane]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

Interesting that early this week,the cone had Karen making her distinct NW turn by today.Shes not doing that. It is getting scary that the trend now is more toward a US hit

Is this trend left of track largely due to the current weakening and lack of upper atmospheric influence?

The trend left is due to some of the models showing a weaker Karen that moves more with the low-level steering currents.

[whereverwx]

Forecasts change. (sarcasm)