Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

If upgraded at the 7 pm advisory, would this be the fastest ever a storm went from TD to hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

If upgraded at the 7 pm advisory, would this be the fastest ever a storm went from TD to hurricane?

Probably operationally, but it will be changed in the best track.

Also, I find it funny that the Spanish advisory is up to date on Karen, but there are none for Lorenzo.

[PhillyWX]

This reminds me a bit like Stan, only farther north.

[PhillyWX]

If upgraded at the 7 pm advisory, would this be the fastest ever a storm went from TD to hurricane?

Probably operationally, but it will be changed in the best track.

Also, I find it funny that the Spanish advisory is up to date on Karen, but there are none for Lorenzo.

I wish I could find it funny as well.

I don't mean to rip the NHC on this, but looking at the storm at 11 AM it looked like a TS to me. Dvorak has been wrong before and this should have been one of those cases where radar was used and given the presentation and how it was going to continue to strengthen an upgrade would have been prudent at 11 AM. It looks bad for them to have to upgrade from a TD to a 60 mph TS at 2 PM ET because they relied on computer estimates and waited for the recon.

[HurricaneRobert]

This reminds me a bit like Stan, only farther north.

This is like another one from that season - Jose.

[HURAKAN]

This reminds me a bit like Stan, only farther north.

The difference is that Stan was moving faster.

[HURAKAN]

Look at the white spot in the center, very intense convection.

[PhillyWX]

This reminds me a bit like Stan, only farther north.

This is like another one from that season - Jose.

Or Bret or Gert. There were a few in 2005 that blew up and moved inland.

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a hurricane!!!

[HurricaneRobert]

Stan took a while to develop. Wasn't it able to pull moisture in from the Pacific, soaking Guatemala completely? Lorenza has a lot of power, but not the abilities of that storm.

[punkyg]

Guys i'm excited this is gonna be my first time seeing a hurricane that looks like a lopsided ball.

do you think lorenzo will be stronger then 80mph

[BigA]

I honestly hope the people there are ready for this storm. Theres a radar image at this site. http://johnzap.com/WEATHERveracruz.html
If you are so inclined, pray for the people there. This could be a nasty flood event.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't believe what this did today.

[wxman57]

If upgraded at the 7 pm advisory, would this be the fastest ever a storm went from TD to hurricane?

Don't forget Humberto. 15Z it was a TD, at 05Z (16 hrs hater) it was a hurricane. However, it was likely a TD at least 12 hours before then, but the NHC didn't upgrade it. And Lorenzo was almost certainly a TS this morning, but the plane had left when it intensified.

[CrazyC83]

If upgraded at the 7 pm advisory, would this be the fastest ever a storm went from TD to hurricane?

Don't forget Humberto. 15Z it was a TD, at 05Z (16 hrs hater) it was a hurricane. However, it was likely a TD at least 12 hours before then, but the NHC didn't upgrade it. And Lorenzo was almost certainly a TS this morning, but the plane had left when it intensified.

Yep, even if we assumed it became a TS right after the 7 am advisory (at that point definitely a TD), it would be only a 12 hour race through tropical storm classification...

[CrazyC83]

When is the next Recon flight? Late this evening?

[whereverwx]

Here's a nice afternoon visible:

[cycloneye]

When is the next Recon flight? Late this evening?

A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0613A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 20.1N 96.7W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[CrazyC83]

When is the next Recon flight? Late this evening?

A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0613A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 20.1N 96.7W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Just as I thought: 9:30 pm CDT.