2006 Pattern Repeat?

[Sanibel]

Atlantic continues to be hostile for formation with troughs and high shear cutting down forming storms that go above the Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree Sanibel, north of the caribbean conditions are
clearly very hostile. 40 kts to shear taking over karen
and then the same shear to rip up the cape verde wave.

[Frank2]

Since October is close at hand, it seems more and more likely that the season will end in October, since the pattern of sweeping cold fronts (and the strong troughs that preceed them) is already becoming apparent over North America - which only increases shear in the Gulf and Western Atlantic...

[gilbert88]

Since October is close at hand, it seems more and more likely that the season will end in October, since the pattern of sweeping cold fronts (and the strong troughs that preceed them) is already becoming apparent over North America - which only increases shear in the Gulf and Western Atlantic...

I remember you've been announcing the season's end since August. At least you know you will be correct someday, huh?

[DanKellFla]

Since October is close at hand, it seems more and more likely that the season will end in October, since the pattern of sweeping cold fronts (and the strong troughs that preceed them) is already becoming apparent over North America - which only increases shear in the Gulf and Western Atlantic...

I remember you've been announcing the season's end since August. At least you know you will be correct someday, huh?

I'll take it.

Well, doesn't look like a 2006 pattern repeat. It is (was...) a year unto itself. Two Cat 5s making landfall at nearly the same place and windy/rainy days elsewhere.

[Sanibel]

By "pattern" I really meant unfavorable Atlantic conditions that prohibit storms in high SST's. These hostile upper winds, ULL's, and troughs in prime season seem to confirm that. This season is obviously different from 2006 in the number of storms, strong Caribbean low-runners, and storm paths - but that is almost always the case from year to year. What has repeated is the storm weakening atmosphere. It's also slightly drier. There haven't been many deep rainers this year with broad, deeply moist convection.

[Gustywind]

Since October is close at hand, it seems more and more likely that the season will end in October, since the pattern of sweeping cold fronts (and the strong troughs that preceed them) is already becoming apparent over North America - which only increases shear in the Gulf and Western Atlantic...

I remember you've been announcing the season's end since August. At least you know you will be correct someday, huh?

Absolutely good post and good memory , we will say if there's 2 cat 4 in October that season will end in November too folks

[stormchazer]

Why not wait until Nov. then we can determine what kind of season 2007 was? I mean your last post was on the 15th so it took 12 days to rehash this "its 2006 pattern". Oh I mean its now become "its not as active like 2006."

I think there is still plenty of season left. Some of the other threads are posting local NWS reports progging reducing shear in the Atlantic in the coming week. In November we will sit down to a crow feast. The only thing to decide is who is eating.

My opinion of course.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

perhaps the bahama blob and the karen the krazy will
defeat the shear...