Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[hial2]

Is there any chance of karen rebounding into something nasty ?

After the shear subsides in 2 days or so...Euro rebounds it and explodes it to a
cat 3/4.

To whom or how close to whom are you speaking of????

Tropical Storm Karen(2007) please go the way Ingrid did, thank you, signed by everyone but people I disagree with...

My 3 cents: Miami/West Palm area first,crossing over to the Gulf to Texas via Naples,getting caught by an incoming front and heading east thru Ms and La,back to Florida over Tampa exiting Florida over Jax and heading north to NC where it will break the horrible draught with 2-3 ft of rain water..Oh,and never weaker than a cat2

My apologies to those I omitted....

[punkyg]

punky,
she should be in fairly high shear right now but with convection explosion over the center i just don't know.

So your saying was that the shear was only around for earlier today and that she'll do better tonight then last night.
wow i never use them googled eyed smilies

[HurricaneRobert]

My 3 cents: Miami/West Palm area first,crossing over to the Gulf to Texas via Naples,getting caught by an incoming front and heading east thru Ms and La,back to Florida over Tampa exiting Florida over Jax and heading north to NC where it will break the horrible draught with 2-3 ft of rain water..Oh,and never weaker than a cat2

My apologies to those I omitted....

Maybe it will get bigger. (Picture this on the other coast:

[Category 5]

What a blowup, Not bad for a sheered system eh.

[bwhorton2007]

look at the upper level clouds they are screaming over her but convection is still building
over the center as of now i really don't have an explanation except that the trough in the area was weaker than expected and as a result shear maybe easing earlier than forecast.that's all i can come up with at the moment.

[ronjon]

Yes, the ridge is strong and the models are responding to an ever increasing bad synoptic setup. The only difference between the 12Z Euro and the 18Z GFS is that the Euro is about 12-24 hrs faster and the GFS has a strong cold front barrelling toward the east coast that deflects Karen away from S FL at the last minute. However, when I looked at the 12Z Euro 500 mb pattern it had no such front, and in fact, had high pressure firmly entrenched along the east coast with a sharp trough off the US west coast at 10 days out. We all know how weather patterns can change, especially 7-10 days out, so we'll have to see if we get some model consistency over the next few days on Karen's future track.

[bwhorton2007]

Also though large in size she isn't a monster in the upper atmosphere right now and that may be allowing her to slide under the worst of the shear also.

[Derek Ortt]

this convection will die by morning

In this type of environment, the convection usually builds and dies within a 12 hour period then repeats

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

866
WHXX04 KWBC 272330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KAREN 12L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.1 48.0 295./12.0
6 14.5 48.8 294./ 9.3
12 14.8 49.8 288./ 9.7
18 15.5 50.8 307./12.1
24 16.3 51.4 321./ 9.5
30 16.5 51.9 295./ 5.7
36 16.8 52.2 313./ 4.3
42 17.4 53.4 297./12.7
48 17.8 53.7 320./ 5.1
54 18.2 54.2 313./ 6.3
60 18.3 54.4 285./ 2.2
66 18.9 55.1 311./ 8.9
72 19.7 55.7 321./ 9.8
78 20.4 55.6 11./ 7.0
84 21.1 56.0 332./ 7.9
90 21.5 56.6 304./ 7.0
96 22.2 57.0 326./ 7.7
102 22.7 57.6 313./ 7.4
108 23.0 58.4 294./ 8.1
114 23.1 59.2 275./ 7.3
120 23.2 59.7 275./ 5.1
126 23.1 60.3 261./ 5.7

The 18z GFDL

[Emmett_Brown]

True... this will likely pulse, then get sheared again. I think these pulses will hold Karen together in a steady state for the next couple of days. Should keep it from being an Ingrid unless shear gets worse.

Those West trending models sure are interesting...

[ronjon]

[bwhorton2007]

also look at the noaa floater of the entire tropical atlantic
looks like karen is moving due west at the moment.

[Emmett_Brown]

This upper air pattern still looks pretty unfavorable. Yup, this pulse could be short lived.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[curtadams]

From the way the coldest cloudtops jerked east it looks like the westerly shear finally took. I suspect the MLC was separated from the LLC by that and that convection will fade now. We'll see over the next few hours.

Very hard to determine motion now that the LLC is under the CDO. You can't separate motion from shear changes with just a geosync satellite shot.

[ronjon]

Karen, sister of Floyd?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/hurricane/at19996.asp

[Category 5]

Karen, sister of Floyd?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/hurricane/at19996.asp

We shouldn't be comparing it to Devestating past hurricanes yet.

[cycloneye]

27/2345 UTC 14.0N 48.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html


The navy shows that it was a hurricane yesterday. Why do they do that?

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/12L.KAREN/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html


The navy shows that it was a hurricane yesterday. Why do they do that?

That was because the models initiated at 65 kt (even though the NHC did not recognize that in advisories). Officially it would still go down as Tropical Storm Karen (at least operationally).