Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT

Distint from the past advisories,they increase the intensity instead of having it steady or decrese.

[Evil Jeremy]

New Cone:

More south and west at the end. Not liking how it is shaping up.

[cycloneye]

KAREN SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...
IF THE STORM SURVIVES THE SHEAR...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE AS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING. RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS CHANGE IN SHEAR AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ACTUALLY
MAKE KAREN A HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE STORM ENDURES THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO.


Peeps,make your own conclusions about this paragrafh.

[americanrebel]

Sounds like they have no idea what or where this storm is going. I personally think this will be a storm weaken over the next couple days and go mostly WNW with a slight turn NW for a day or two, then turn back W maybe slightly WNW and start stregthening. I perdict a Major Hurricane in about 8-10 days heading toward the CONUS (Florida or the Carolinas). Just my humble opinion.

[JonathanBelles]

my forecast here: viewtopic.php?p=1646132#p1646132

Pretty general for Karen because of uncertainties.

[jaxfladude]

New Cone:

More south and west at the end. Not liking how it is shaping up.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

[americanrebel]

So on that path in 2 weeks we will be talking about Florida hit.

[CrazyC83]

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT

Distint from the past advisories,they increase the intensity instead of having it steady or decrese.

I think that the re-intensification is correct although I think it might weaken more then strengthen more. 50 kt seems right for the current intensity, maybe even 55 kt earlier with the solid convection.

[canegrl04]

New Cone:

More south and west at the end. Not liking how it is shaping up.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

IF that trend comes to pass,Karen is taking aim on Florida

[JonathanBelles]

How far south can it go?

[JTD]

Karen looking very very ill here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The track is concerning if it were to survive, but the question tonight is will it.

[jaxfladude]

Karen looking very very ill here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

The track is concerning if it were to survive, but the question tonight is will it.

Hopefully Karen does not make it or finally picks up forward speed and becomes a Fish or at the most a TS side swipe for Bermuda....

[canegrl04]

KAREN SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...
IF THE STORM SURVIVES THE SHEAR...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE AS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING. RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS CHANGE IN SHEAR AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
STRENGTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ACTUALLY
MAKE KAREN A HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THE
LONGER-RANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE STORM ENDURES THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO.


Peeps,make your own conclusions about this paragrafh.

The HWRF sometimes gets intensity dead on.They forecasted Dean to become a cat.5 while he was still a TS

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like we might have something to get all worked up about afterall. Still more than a week away but this is getting interesting to say the least.

As far as saying the NHC has no idea where it is going, well, that is too general a statement in my opinion. I think we all have SOME idea of where it is going, but not NO idea.

[Derek Ortt]

my thoughts... I'd be surprised if this is around by the time football starts on Sunday

Lets take the case of Andrew... yes, it had some SAL issues (though they were minor). However, the shear it experienced was only 20-25KT and only lasted for 36-48 hours. It dissipated for a time but came back (recon found no center; therefore, I refer to it as dissipated)

This thing has to endure about 5 days of 30-50KT shear... survival is unlikely

[cycloneye]

[americanrebel]

Derek I hope you are right, but you are the only one that I really hear saying it will dissipate completely. Most other experts say it will weaken to a TD then intensifies.

[cpdaman]

ok if you live in the S.E united states you are hoping this thing will go POOF-POOF by sunday morning.

otherwise we may have a problemo, Jim cantore on Tropical update says this needs to be watched very closely as models suggest it would bend back west.

climo suggests very few storms have gone this route in history , which leads me to believe shear will be the winner

i just question 5 day shear forecasts, and also because karen is 5 x larger than andrew's circulation.

[Derek Ortt]

I did NOT forecast dissipation (see the latest forecast I released), even though I wanted to.

The models also have a history of removing the shear far too early

They also re-intensified Ingrid... they missed the SAL surge. Not saying that will happen here, but the models almost certainly are reintensifying Karen too quickly.

An alternative outcome is Karen dissipating then reforming

[americanrebel]

So anotherwords pulling an Andrew.

Sorry I misunderstood