Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[marcane_1973]

Looks like we might have something to get all worked up about afterall. Still more than a week away but this is getting interesting to say the least.

As far as saying the NHC has no idea where it is going, well, that is too general a statement in my opinion. I think we all have SOME idea of where it is going, but not NO idea.

If Karen survives the shear and does not go fishing looks like this will be a Carolina storm if it stays close to that bend down the middle at the end of the 11 pm forecast track. Maybe finally you guys can get some decent excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end 2 cane.(hopefully no stronger) You guys got to be going nuts with no decent storms in 2006 or 2007 to intercept.

[Category 5]

If Karen survives the shear and does not go fishing looks like this will be a Carolina storm if it stays close to that bend down the middle at the end of the 11 pm forecast track. Maybe finally you guys can get some decent excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end 2 cane.(hopefully no stronger) You guys got to be going nuts with no decent storms in 2006 or 2007 to intercept.

Excitement?
Going nuts because of no decent storms?

You've got to be kidding.

Excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end cat 2? What was that last cat 2 in the Carolinas? Oh thats right, went by the name of Isabel. I'm sure those who went through it down there wouldn't refer to it as exciting.

[HurricaneRobert]

Looks like we might have something to get all worked up about afterall. Still more than a week away but this is getting interesting to say the least.

As far as saying the NHC has no idea where it is going, well, that is too general a statement in my opinion. I think we all have SOME idea of where it is going, but not NO idea.

If Karen survives the shear and does not go fishing looks like this will be a Carolina storm if it stays close to that bend down the middle at the end of the 11 pm forecast track. Maybe finally you guys can get some decent excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end 2 cane.(hopefully no stronger) You guys got to be going nuts with no decent storms in 2006 or 2007 to intercept.

I don't think she will be Cat 1 or 2 if she's aiming at the conus. That's not going to be fun for anyone.

[JTD]

If Karen survives the shear and does not go fishing looks like this will be a Carolina storm if it stays close to that bend down the middle at the end of the 11 pm forecast track. Maybe finally you guys can get some decent excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end 2 cane.(hopefully no stronger) You guys got to be going nuts with no decent storms in 2006 or 2007 to intercept.

Excitement?
Going nuts because of no decent storms?

You've got to be kidding.

Excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end cat 2? What was that last cat 2 in the Carolinas? Oh thats right, went by the name of Isabel. I'm sure those who went through it down there wouldn't refer to it as exciting.

Category5,

Hurricanetrack is a stormchaser and has an organization dedicated to such.

[hurricanetrack]

Excitement is not meant to mean that people do not care about what happens to the lives of people when hurricanes affect them. A hurricane is exciting by its very nature. I think that too many people get bent out of shape when they see the word "excitement" used in conjunction with a hurricane threat.

Believe me, if this comes at the U.S., a lot of people are going to be excited about it but that does not mean they will be glad of its arrival.

Most hurricane 'chasers' have a deep respect for these beasts- I know I do. It is quite a fine line between wanting to study them when they hit and not wanting lives ruined or even ended.

[Category 5]

If Karen survives the shear and does not go fishing looks like this will be a Carolina storm if it stays close to that bend down the middle at the end of the 11 pm forecast track. Maybe finally you guys can get some decent excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end 2 cane.(hopefully no stronger) You guys got to be going nuts with no decent storms in 2006 or 2007 to intercept.

Excitement?
Going nuts because of no decent storms?

You've got to be kidding.

Excitement for a change with a Cat 1 or low end cat 2? What was that last cat 2 in the Carolinas? Oh thats right, went by the name of Isabel. I'm sure those who went through it down there wouldn't refer to it as exciting.

Category5,

Hurricanetrack is a stormchaser and has an organization dedicated to such.

I know, I have his DVD's and frequently visit the website.

That post was directed at Marcane_1973

[JonathanBelles]

Karen looks like a Piranha to me:

[americanrebel]

Just wondering what is the record for most post on one system? the way it looks this one good end up in the thousands if not closer 10000. We are still possibly 2 weeks away from the end of this system.

[americanrebel]

Yeah but the main circulation is south of the Pirahna.

[Typhoon_Willie]

He he it looks like Karen has a Mohawk hairstyle! Or a Beavis style hair cut!

[Recurve]

For those interested in trivia, the 11 p.m. position is 25 nm from where Andrew was (14.5N, 49.8W) on Aug. 18, 1992, when it had T 3.0/3.0 (if I'm reading that part of the fixes right). Of course, Andrew was FLYing along...

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE AUG 18 1992

...ANDREW CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES
..1275 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...AND
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 49.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

PASCH


[BigA]

This is a bit off topic, but the Andrew post makes me ask: How do you find advisory archives for pre 1995 systems? Much thanks. It looks like if Karen can exist in 48 hours, it should strengthen at some point. The main differences between it and Ingrid are size and the fact that none of the models dissapate Karen, as many did with Ingrid.

[fci]

Just wondering what is the record for most post on one system? the way it looks this one good end up in the thousands if not closer 10000. We are still possibly 2 weeks away from the end of this system.

I do not know what the record is for posts on a system but I think it is well past where we are now.

IF Karen survives for 2 more weeks, we will probably get close to a record but the chances that this system is alive for another 2 weeks is HIGHLY unlikely.

I certainly hope not as that would have meant that she survived the fight with shear (pretty unlikely), intensified and surely moved
v e r y s l o w l y.......
Unfortunately it would probably mean she hit, or at least threatened; somebody.

No, I think we will have written this off within 7 days from now if not sooner.

Just my opinion and based on NOTHING but my gut feeling and experience (which have a pretty good history........)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As soon as this gets past that shear where shear
goes to 0-10 knots near the bahamas- I expect rapid
intensification.

[fci]

This is a bit off topic, but the Andrew post makes me ask: How do you find advisory archives for pre 1995 systems? Much thanks. It looks like if Karen can exist in 48 hours, it should strengthen at some point. The main differences between it and Ingrid are size and the fact that none of the models dissapate Karen, as many did with Ingrid.

Try this link to NHC archives:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

The pre-1995 storms will be in directories by year and then by storm.
For instance in 1965 the information on Betsy is fascinating. You get to the advisories by clicking on the "betsy" folder and then within that directory the "public" folder. The advisories are actually scanned documents in "gif" format.
Betsy is a GREAT read!

Hope I have been of help to you!

[marcane_1973]

Excitement is not meant to mean that people do not care about what happens to the lives of people when hurricanes affect them. A hurricane is exciting by its very nature. I think that too many people get bent out of shape when they see the word "excitement" used in conjunction with a hurricane threat.

Believe me, if this comes at the U.S., a lot of people are going to be excited about it but that does not mean they will be glad of its arrival.

Most hurricane 'chasers' have a deep respect for these beasts- I know I do. It is quite a fine line between wanting to study them when they hit and not wanting lives ruined or even ended.

I have respect for the storms as well as the safety for those are in the path like Mark has stated above. I do not care to see lives ruined. Maybe I should of worded it differently. I was just trying to say it would be nice for the HIRT team to get a chance at studying a storm that has the potential to become better organized than what they have had to intercept since 2006. I can imagine all the guys at hurricanetrack.com that go on these missions and risk their lives to show us up close and personal with these monsters have been pretty bored here lately especially intercepting storms being a big part of their lives. How do you think your windtower will hold up if you get a mission here soon? I read on your blog you had some slight problems. Hope everything works out and is all good.

[eaglegirl]

Excitement is not meant to mean that people do not care about what happens to the lives of people when hurricanes affect them. A hurricane is exciting by its very nature. I think that too many people get bent out of shape when they see the word "excitement" used in conjunction with a hurricane threat.

Believe me, if this comes at the U.S., a lot of people are going to be excited about it but that does not mean they will be glad of its arrival.

Most hurricane 'chasers' have a deep respect for these beasts- I know I do. It is quite a fine line between wanting to study them when they hit and not wanting lives ruined or even ended.

Oh, geez... I hope I don't get in trouble for going off topic... but, I can't help myself from commenting here.

I would never encourage anyone to be a storm chaser... or expose themselves to a hurricane if it could be avoided.

However, I have been quietly following Mark's activities (behind the scenes) for several years now.

I've stayed up many a night, into the wee hours of the morning, watching his "live" travels. For better or worse, a few of those nights occured when everyone was battling sleep deprivation and exhaustion from so many back to back storms.

Personally, I've been grateful for Mark's continued dedication. He has unknowingly provided many with much "need to know" information for the response that came after the storms.

While I empathize and understand Mark's apparent (to me) frustration after being so useful, I hope Karen goes away. If she does head toward the US, you can be sure I will be praying for hurricanetrack's safety.

[BigA]

This is a bit off topic, but the Andrew post makes me ask: How do you find advisory archives for pre 1995 systems? Much thanks. It looks like if Karen can exist in 48 hours, it should strengthen at some point. The main differences between it and Ingrid are size and the fact that none of the models dissapate Karen, as many did with Ingrid.

Try this link to NHC archives:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

The pre-1995 storms will be in directories by year and then by storm.
For instance in 1965 the information on Betsy is fascinating. You get to the advisories by clicking on the "betsy" folder and then within that directory the "public" folder. The advisories are actually scanned documents in "gif" format.
Betsy is a GREAT read!

Hope I have been of help to you!

Much thanks; I greatly appreciate this, and now I have another way to pass my time!

[Cyclenall]

This is a bit off topic, but the Andrew post makes me ask: How do you find advisory archives for pre 1995 systems? Much thanks. It looks like if Karen can exist in 48 hours, it should strengthen at some point. The main differences between it and Ingrid are size and the fact that none of the models dissapate Karen, as many did with Ingrid.

Try this link to NHC archives:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

The pre-1995 storms will be in directories by year and then by storm.
For instance in 1965 the information on Betsy is fascinating. You get to the advisories by clicking on the "betsy" folder and then within that directory the "public" folder. The advisories are actually scanned documents in "gif" format.
Betsy is a GREAT read!

Hope I have been of help to you!

I saw this before, but I wonder when the NHC put all that content up for the public? I remember that wasn't there 1.5 years ago at least. It's awesome and I could spend a long time just looking at that.

[WindRunner]

This is a bit off topic, but the Andrew post makes me ask: How do you find advisory archives for pre 1995 systems? Much thanks. It looks like if Karen can exist in 48 hours, it should strengthen at some point. The main differences between it and Ingrid are size and the fact that none of the models dissapate Karen, as many did with Ingrid.

Try this link to NHC archives:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

The pre-1995 storms will be in directories by year and then by storm.
For instance in 1965 the information on Betsy is fascinating. You get to the advisories by clicking on the "betsy" folder and then within that directory the "public" folder. The advisories are actually scanned documents in "gif" format.
Betsy is a GREAT read!

Hope I have been of help to you!

I saw this before, but I wonder when the NHC put all that content up for the public? I remember that wasn't there 1.5 years ago at least. It's awesome and I could spend a long time just looking at that.

I'm pretty sure it has been . . . it might not have been quite so easily accessible, but their storm wallets and archived recon data back to 1989, along with other weird little sets of data, have been available via their public FTP server for quite some time. I think they may have just brought some of it out to the public end of the site when they moved their servers from "nhc.noaa.gov" to "tpc.ncep.noaa.gov" over the winter.