Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM
LORENZO...LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

Models run here!

[HURAKAN]

That's 99L. Looks like it developed into a TS overnight by the Cape Verde Islands. Oops! Here's the first visible:

[HURAKAN]

06Z


Hmmm...stationary.

[Thunder44]

This invest looks extremely impressive. Take a look at QS, surface center is little enlongated to the SW but just about closed:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1018 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070928 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070928 0600 070928 1800 070929 0600 070929 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 25.5W 15.0N 27.4W 16.1N 29.4W 17.4N 31.5W
BAMD 14.0N 25.5W 14.7N 26.3W 15.6N 27.0W 16.9N 27.8W
BAMM 14.0N 25.5W 14.8N 26.7W 15.6N 27.9W 16.6N 29.3W
LBAR 14.0N 25.5W 14.2N 26.2W 15.4N 27.0W 17.1N 28.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070930 0600 071001 0600 071002 0600 071003 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 33.5W 20.6N 37.7W 22.2N 41.5W 23.3N 44.8W
BAMD 18.7N 28.4W 23.0N 25.9W 24.8N 10.2W 30.7N .3E
BAMM 17.7N 30.9W 20.1N 33.9W 22.1N 36.6W 23.3N 38.2W
LBAR 19.7N 28.6W 26.1N 25.5W 28.3N 13.9W 32.1N 4.0W
SHIP 28KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 25.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 24.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 23.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
SHIP intensity model does not go to Tropical Storm.

[wxman57]

I think NHC may be underestimating 99L's intensity a bit. Preliminary visible satellite imagery makes it look VERY much like TS Melissa! But it's pure, 100% fish. No doubt about it.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 20W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SURGE. A 1011 MB LOW HAS SEPARATED FROM THE WAVE AND IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 23W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ON THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

[cycloneye]

Quickscat is a few hours old (7:28 UTC), but you can see the circulation of this system how defined it is.

[TheEuropean]

Hm, a canary system? They don't need another Delta or so...

[HURAKAN]

Looks really good. Could be already a TD, maybe a weak TS.

[HURAKAN]

[Weatherfreak000]

This should be Melissa, probably if it hold it's organization during the day today it should continue to strengthen into a Hurricane.


So much for ACE Problems.

[wxman57]

Here's a color shot of the "wave":

[JonathanBelles]

Will this systemn break the record of most TS's in one month?

[HURAKAN]

Will this systemn break the record of most TS's in one month?

The record is 8 in 2002.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_no ... med_storms

[PhillyWX]

This looks impressive out of the gate. For some reason I can't see them upgrading this for a couple of days. It seems, right or wrong, the NHC has been quite conservative this year in upgrading anything.