Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL is now out, and it is not showing a turn to the west this time.

[cycloneye]

If this erratic motion continues,then the threat to any land (Including Bermuda) will be reduced bigtime.

[JonathanBelles]

If this erratic motion continues,then the threat to any land (Including Bermuda) will be reduced bigtime.

And shear goes up the further north it goes.

[Vortex]

6Z GFS takes it into DR and then SW into the NW carribean...Very large spread this morning...*If* it survives a very favorable environment is waiting in about 3 days as some of the Globals develop an anti-cyclone right over soon to be TD Karen

[Vortex]

QS..

Not nearly as tight..May be degeneratng into an open wave for now..

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[Evil Jeremy]

lets see if this continues for the next few hours. The next few model runs will be very interesting!

[Category 5]

This thing is getting torn up.

And call me crazy but it looks like it's moving NNE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[cycloneye]

This thing is getting torn up.

And call me crazy but it looks like it's moving NNE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Did you see my post above.You are not the only one.

[Vortex]

Looks like she's trying to run for cover

[cycloneye]

Looks like a TD maybe less than that.

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[Evil Jeremy]

RIP Karen

[cycloneye]

28/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.0W T1.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean


Confirmed erratic movement and Rip.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see the NE movement as well.

I didn't think it would go fishing so soon.

[Blown Away]

That NE jump is wild! Karen is not looking good, however there is a recent convection burst on the E side. The shear freight train is coming in from the W.

[wxman57]

I see the NE movement as well.

I didn't think it would go fishing so soon.

You guys aren't nuts. I'm measuring a movement toward 12.5 degrees at 15 kts over the past 2 hours. The low-level swirl is definitely tracking N-NNE. Doesn't look like a TS now, just a depression.

[curtadams]

The NE move should end any substantial chance of a mainland strike. Some poster wrote during Ingrid that no storm that moved NW in the Central Atlantic had ever hit the US. Given that, what's the chance that a NE moving storm would?

[cycloneye]

830
WHXX01 KWBC 281238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070928 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070928 1200 070929 0000 070929 1200 070930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 49.0W 15.7N 51.7W 16.6N 54.4W 17.2N 56.2W
BAMD 14.6N 49.0W 16.1N 49.9W 17.4N 50.3W 18.7N 50.4W
BAMM 14.6N 49.0W 15.5N 50.9W 16.2N 52.4W 16.9N 53.5W
LBAR 14.6N 49.0W 15.8N 50.3W 16.9N 51.7W 17.8N 52.9W
SHIP 35KTS 28KTS 24KTS 22KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 24KTS 22KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070930 1200 071001 1200 071002 1200 071003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 57.9W 19.7N 60.2W 21.5N 62.8W 22.8N 65.7W
BAMD 20.2N 50.7W 22.8N 52.0W 24.1N 54.0W 22.8N 56.9W
BAMM 17.6N 54.7W 19.0N 56.9W 19.8N 59.1W 19.5N 62.0W
LBAR 18.7N 54.0W 20.7N 55.3W 22.3N 56.8W 22.0N 58.8W
SHIP 18KTS 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS
DSHP 18KTS 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 48.8W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 46.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
35 kts and that is very generous.Close to open wave.

[wxman57]

The NE move should end any substantial chance of a mainland strike. Some poster wrote during Ingrid that no storm that moved NW in the Central Atlantic had ever hit the US. Given that, what's the chance that a NE moving storm would?

I was thinking the same. Perhaps the shear is so strong even the LLC is being steered to the NNE-NE with the convection. Good riddance to Karen.

[DelrayMorris]

The NE move should end any substantial chance of a mainland strike. Some poster wrote during Ingrid that no storm that moved NW in the Central Atlantic had ever hit the US. Given that, what's the chance that a NE moving storm would?

Um.. well... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... e2004.html

Not saying that is what would happen, but it's NOT unprecedented.