Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It seems that there is some heated
debate as to the intensity and track, with some saying that
it will die others saying it may survive and then some say
the track is going to go north others say west.

Going to be interesting to see how this turns out.

[CrazyC83]

It seems that there is some heated
debate as to the intensity and track, with some saying that
it will die others saying it may survive and then some say
the track is going to go north others say west.

Going to be interesting to see how this turns out.

Either way, the trough that early models were calling on to make an early recurve is currently over the central Atlantic, and Karen certainly won't reach it in time, whether as a wave, remnant low, depression, storm or hurricane.

[Blown Away]

Same shear killed Ingrid, 97L, and now Karen.

[Blown Away]

Not sure how the NHC gets WNW, looks almost due N.

[hurricanetrack]

Discussion:

visible imagery suggests that the weakening circulation of Karen has
moved erratically this morning...but now appears to be returning to
a previous west-northwestward motion. An earlier 0910z Quikscat
overpass indicated that there was a small area of believable
flagged 40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. But since
then...that convective area containing the coldest tops has
diminished considerably. Based on the Quikscat interpretation and
current satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt...the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt...and this could be generous.


Persistently strong southwesterly shear is expected to affect Karen
during the next 72 hours or so. Thereafter...the intensity guidance
agrees in bringing unfavorable upper-level northwesterly winds over
the system. The official forecast indicates weakening to a
depression in 12 hours...following the SHIPS and lgem.
Afterward...because of the potential of intermittent bursts of deep
convection near the center...the forecast shows little change in
strength. However...Karen could become a remnant low in 36
hours...as indicated by both aforementioned intensity models. In
previous runs...despite the obvious unfavorable upper level
wind environment...some dynamical models suggested significant
strengthening. However...in the latest runs...the GFS weakens Karen
and this is a more realistic scenario. ECMWF and GFDL insist on
strengthening. We shall see in the next run if these models come to
an agreement with the GFS.


Initial motion is estimated at 295/8. A low- to mid level
tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north of Karen should
maintain a west-northwestward motion during the next 2 days.
Afterward...a developing weakness in the ridge northwest of the
cyclone should temporarily induce a more northwestward motion.
Around the 96 hour period...all of the dynamical models are
indicating that the trough will fill and move northeast allowing a
mid- level high to build southeast of Bermuda. This change in the
steering pattern should cause Karen to turn more to the west...if
the cyclone survives for that long of a period. The official track
forecast is close to the previous package and is based on a blend of
the model consensus...and hedges toward the shallow mean layer
BAM....since the Karen is forecast to weaken.

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 28/1500z 15.1n 49.2w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 15.5n 50.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 16.6n 52.0w 30 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 17.6n 53.3w 30 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 18.5n 54.6w 30 kt
72hr VT 01/1200z 20.0n 56.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 02/1200z 21.5n 58.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 03/1200z 22.0n 60.0w 30 kt


$$
forecaster Roberts

I am just curious, when folks post the discussions, etc. and they are not in all caps, like they are originally written, does that mean that someone has taken the time to actually re-type this whole thing to appear as it does above?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whatever is left of karen- some rain,
will probably be pushed by the ridge into florida.

[Derek Ortt]

some good news for the Karen fans... the working best track file does have Karen as a hurricane for 12 hours

[JtSmarts]

In response to Hurricanetrack I think those advisories come from weather underground.

[JtSmarts]

some good news for the Karen fans... the working best track file does have Karen as a hurricane for 12 hours

That would put us at 12 (13-soon)/ 5/2

[DelrayMorris]

some good news for the Karen fans... the working best track file does have Karen as a hurricane for 12 hours

What does that mean, Derek? (the working best track file)

I don't see how Karen can be a hurricane in 12 hours. She seems to be impressively holding on to BARELY TS status right now. Does the 'working best track file" actually have any accuracy?

[WmE]

The NHC admitted that Karen was briefly a hurricane.

[NetZeroZeus]

some good news for the Karen fans... the working best track file does have Karen as a hurricane for 12 hours

What does that mean, Derek? (the working best track file)

I don't see how Karen can be a hurricane in 12 hours. She seems to be impressively holding on to BARELY TS status right now. Does the 'working best track file" actually have any accuracy?

He means it was classified as a hurricane FOR 12 hours either yesterday or the day before, not sure.

[RattleMan]

some good news for the Karen fans... the working best track file does have Karen as a hurricane for 12 hours

What does that mean, Derek? (the working best track file)

I don't see how Karen can be a hurricane in 12 hours. She seems to be impressively holding on to BARELY TS status right now. Does the 'working best track file" actually have any accuracy?

No, that's not it...

"the working best track file does have Karen as a hurricane for 12 hours"

That means, at one point, for 12 hours, it was a hurricane.

[Brent]

This is just like Ingrid. It won't survive through the 5 days...

[Derek Ortt]

Karen is moving due north. I cannot understand how one could derive a WNW track out of due north

[fci]

Take a look at the latest satellite picture.
We need wxman to post the "It's dead Jim picture".

[Lifesgud2]

Good Night Karen...Sweet dreams

[chadtm80]

Load this loop.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html and click Trop Fcst Pts

Karen totaly mocking NHC Track.

[wxman57]

Not sure how the NHC gets WNW, looks almost due N.

I'm still measuring due north at about 12 kts. Their 15Z initial position is off by 20 miles at least. But I think the basic track is good, just probably adjust it 100 miles east for the first 3 days before the westward bend.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the latest satellite picture.
We need wxman to post the "It's dead Jim picture".

Just the opposite. The northerly motion means relative shear is down. Convection is returning to very near the center. Could hang in there and actually BE a TS by this afternoon.