Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it keeps moving northward it will be a fish. Also as it moves northward the convection is retiring....Kind of like moving with the shear a little. But if it moves to far north, and turns west theres even stronger shear. So it better be careful.

[canetracker]

And actually the BAMD did predict the turn. It sees the deep layer steering flow would direct a storm northward because of increasing shear. Karen was deeply stacked apparently and responded.

The BAMD has it moving North to at least 20N then moving more NNW. Considering current movement, the BAMD prediction does seem the most likely scenario for now.
It will be interesting to see how this progresses.

[HURAKAN]

If life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. If life gives you windshear, you move north and blossom!!!





GO KAREN!!!

[bucman1]

as quickly as things changed this morning-do the pro mets still feel that karen if she survives will be moving(bending)back west and when do you anticipate that to happen.

GO USF BULLS

[Derek Ortt]

global models are now in much better agreement that this will completely dissipate.

As for the blow up... it's not any different than the one yesterday... it should be gone in a few hours and the system will likely be in even worse shape than it was this morning

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL, mod NCEP, and UKMET now dissipate the system

[bucman1]

Derek,

You figure, how quickly things change-almost time to look at the carribean for any appreciable developement.

[HURAKAN]

I agree. Still, Karen is not easily giving up!

[Derek Ortt]

yep... with the la nina, he Caribbean should be quite ripe for a monster.

Since 1996, every single la nina has produced at least a cat 2 in October or November in the NW Carib (and the cat 2 was 1996... every la nina year since then has produced at least a cat 4)

[DESTRUCTION5]

yep... with the la nina, he Caribbean should be quite ripe for a monster.

Since 1996, every single la nina has produced at east a cat 2 in October or November in the NW Carib

That is quite a stat...

[wxman57]

global models are now in much better agreement that this will completely dissipate.

As for the blow up... it's not any different than the one yesterday... it should be gone in a few hours and the system will likely be in even worse shape than it was this morning

That's what I'm thinking (hoping) - only temporary. Looking forward to a rare day off by Sunday.

6-hr motion now toward 352 deg. at 14.3 kts. (moved 86 nm)

[bucman1]

How soon do the the cold fronts start tracking any carribean deveopement to the north and northeast- towards the west coast of Florida?

[chris_fit]

GFDL, mod NCEP, and UKMET now dissipate the system

Question... is it possible that the models are not being initialized correctly, since Karen is moving NORTH? What I'm asking if if they are initialized Karen heading WNW, but it's really moving north, wouldn't the models simply "lose" the core hence dissipate it?

[Lifesgud2]

How soon do the the cold fronts start tracking any carribean deveopement to the north and northeast- towards the west coast of Florida?

Middle of October

[Lifesgud2]

GFDL, mod NCEP, and UKMET now dissipate the system

Question... is it possible that the models are not being initialized correctly, since Karen is moving NORTH? What I'm asking if if they are initialized Karen heading WNW, but it's really moving north, wouldn't the models simply "lose" the core hence dissipate it?

Ahhh..No. They are factoring the N movement and thus completely dissapating it. Shear is too much for this system. Time to watch the carribean.

[chris_fit]

How soon do the the cold fronts start tracking any carribean deveopement to the north and northeast- towards the west coast of Florida?

1. There is no certain time. Remember Charley in August???? That was due to a big front in the middle of summer!
2. It is impossible to know that development will be heading to the west coast of Florida, we need development first.
3. Each situation is completely different effected by synoptic setups covering enormously large areas.
4. Do you live on the west coast of Florida?

[bucman1]

Yes, I live on the west coast, my thinking was does La nina change when the usual cold fronts will emerge such as October?

[jhamps10]

take a good look at the visable loop. I am seeing something of a turn back to the west here it's one of the following two things:

it's either opening up into a wave, which makes it appear that it's turning west, although unlikely as we see that big convection blow up,

or it really is turning back more to the WNW, it's a VERY sharp movement on the satellite, so I'm leaning towards the 2nd option for now.

[HURAKAN]

388
WHXX01 KWBC 281825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 0600 070929 1800 070930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 49.4W 17.2N 51.9W 18.7N 54.1W 20.0N 55.7W
BAMD 16.0N 49.4W 17.5N 49.9W 19.1N 50.3W 20.7N 50.6W
BAMM 16.0N 49.4W 17.2N 50.8W 18.5N 52.0W 19.8N 52.8W
LBAR 16.0N 49.4W 17.1N 49.7W 18.3N 50.4W 19.3N 51.0W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070930 1800 071001 1800 071002 1800 071003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 57.1W 24.0N 60.0W 26.8N 62.8W 30.9N 63.5W
BAMD 22.3N 51.3W 24.9N 53.1W 26.3N 55.5W 26.6N 58.9W
BAMM 21.2N 53.7W 23.8N 55.8W 26.1N 58.4W 28.5N 60.7W
LBAR 20.5N 51.7W 22.2N 52.5W 22.6N 53.8W 22.2N 55.8W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 41KTS
DSHP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 49.4W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 49.4W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 47.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

Still 35 knts but now the movement is 345 deg.

[wxman57]

take a good look at the visable loop. I am seeing something of a turn back to the west here it's one of the following two things:

it's either opening up into a wave, which makes it appear that it's turning west, although unlikely as we see that big convection blow up,

or it really is turning back more to the WNW, it's a VERY sharp movement on the satellite, so I'm leaning towards the 2nd option for now.

I see what you're observing. Looks like the center may have blown apart, giving the appearance of a NW motion. It had a very tight center about 15nm across a few hours ago. Now the center appears to be 40nm across and open to the SW.

12Z GFS appears lost, as it has the center at 15N/52W at 21Z. Just about 200 miles off. I'm adjusting my track even more right and out to sea (if it survives another 12 hours). Satellite indicates a pocket of strong SW shear just ahead of the center now. This could be the end.