Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Steve]

00z GFS doesn't really do much anymore with the 00z run. Some end-of run (currently up to about 8 days) possible action coming up from the south to the Carolinas, but not much. NAM breaks the nose of the tilted trough off from the SW Atlantic and splits a piece back or cuts it off in 4 days. Neither model is showing much in the way of development:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
^^^
NAM at 200mb

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There certainly is farily deep convection flaring up in the eastern Bahamas. Worth watching for persistance.

This is exactly what I expected watching this tropical wave moving into
an area of 0-5 knot shear. This is one of the only areas in the basin with
this low shear, and with other parameters favorable, development is pretty
likely IMO. The convection should continue to flare up
and expand over the next 24-36 hours and a pressure
gradient will began creating strong winds along this feature
as it moves west towards the FL coast and eventually
the gulf of mexico. Convection has certainly fired up tonight over
this area.

Convection increasing in Aerial Coverage:


Infrared- Intense:


Pockets of high intensity:

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks like the GFS 0z backed off any GOM development

[Wx_Warrior]

New 0z GFS had nothing...guess it gave up the phantom on that run!

[flwxwatcher]

Excerpt from HPC discussion this morning

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
906 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 02 2007 - 12Z FRI OCT 05 2007

W ATLC CYCLOGENESIS CONTS TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS MAINLY AS A
RETROGRADING FRONTAL WAVE AND TROF. THERE REMAINS FAIR TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS GENERATION BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS NATURE
AND POSITION. HPC PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS THE ECMWF/00Z GFS/CANADIAN
SOLUTION DAYS 3-5 MON/WED TAKING THIS TO FLORIDA WITH ITS INVERTED
TROF NWD ALONG THE SERN SEABOARD. CANADIAN/NAM AND ITS DGEX
EXTENSION STILL INSIST THAT THIS IS SHALLOW SYMMETRIC WARM CORE. A
HYBRID LOW POTENTIAL IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WITH ITS NWD
INVERTED TROF MAY BRING SOME MUCH NEED RAIN TO THE SERN AND MID
ATLC SEABOARD.

PAC NW RAINS WILL BEGIN SUN NIGHT AND CONT THRU THE PERIOD WITH
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING SOME 7-8 INCH AMOUNTS COMING INTO
B.C./VANCOUVER IS AND NWRN WA.
ROSENSTEIN
a

They are not to bullish on this being a big deal tropical wise and I would have to agree at the moment.

[Sanibel]

There's sort of a tail-end trough/wave remnant in the mid-Caribbean/islands right now. But it's too dry to really pose a threat. I think that is what the models were cooking into a Low. It could still enhance into to a deeper maxima and form - but it doesn't look like it for now. Or was it something further down the line that isn't visible yet?

[Steve]

>>Or was it something further down the line that isn't visible yet?

That's what I think the models are doing by splitting off a piece of the trough off the east coast and then either crossing Florida or sweeping down South then Southwest. Take a look at last night's 00z UKMET run and then run the 850 Theta-E which shows pretty nicely what it has out there. Only the MM5 (45km) really create anything tropical from the south, as many of the globals were bringing the rotation down from the north at the trough split or cut off. The European shows it pretty well also, but it kind of loops through S FL and then comes up the west side which is a little different (keeps the Low the entire time).

Also, several of the models are predicting a strong SW kick to Karen down the road toward Hispanola and Puerto Rico. Some of them have it fairly strong at that time too.

Steve

[eaglegirl]

FLUS42 KTBW 280912
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-281400-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
512 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 3 TO 5
MILES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BELOW 1 MILE. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING
DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOME DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS..OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS WILL RISE TO SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS SATURDAY AND THEN APPROACH OR REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET MAINLY ON OFFSHORE WATERS. MARINERS
SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST WHEN MAKING PLANS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

RKR

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Somehow despite the absence of shear this bahamas system
is not flaring up too much, but there are some thunderstorms in the
area. Will keep an eye on it.

[cpdaman]

not so sure about absence of shear (those maps blow btw)

S. Fl surfers wax up those boards and wave enthusist's get ready because the large high building in over the weekend will combine with a trough of lower pressures (not so much tropical) to produce a long stiff NE fetch that is prompting

coastal water advisory's and forecasts of moderate to LARGE swells focusing on palm beach.

maybe we can get some offshore winds by late tuesday. (sorry i love this stuff)

surf should build rapidly late on sunday. i do not think tropical development will come of this, maybe a weak hybrid/sub tropical something mid week? bring on the cold fronts

waves could reach 8 feet maybe more (andrea brought 12 foot surf this year)

[BigA]

Decent flare up in the southwestern Caribbean. Looks like it might just be a transitory feature, moving toward the eastern Pacific. Any other thoughts?

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather:

[ronjon]

12Z Euro has broad low pressure in the western caribbean and FL the next several days. It has a weak low meander along the ther FL west coast into the eastern GOM.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007092812!!/

[frederic79]

Lots of speculation on something forming in the northern Caribbean/southeast GOM sometime next week. Here's what we do know. From a sampling of nine different buoys located in the central and eastern Gulf, the average water temperature is 84.5 degrees. The high temperature of 86.4 is in the area of the loop current. That's an awful lot of heat for this late in the year. Again, only a couple of fronts so far and, unlike in the Bay of Campeche, there has been nothing significant in the area to cause upwelling of deeper, cooler water. TD 10 was too weak to make an impact. Could be interesting days ahead.

[Nimbus]

The flow from the ULL to the west is causing the flareup. Once the convection persists under the anticyclone perhaps a center will form.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy convection flaring up, but have to wait for persistence.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Indeed some more flare up in this bahamas area of lower
shear.

[CrazyC83]

The western Caribbean and the Gulf are definitely open for business...even though the Atlantic south of 22°N seems closed to development now...

[frederic79]

The southwest Caribbean disturbance showing areas of very deep convection and areas to be stationary or slowly drifting NNW.

[ronjon]

18Z GFS run now jumping on the Euro bandwagon with weak low pressure siding thru the FL straits and another one coming up from the NW caribbean.