Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[cycloneye]

[ftolmsteen]

Definitely some deep convection in that suspect area. A slight hint of turning on the north side.

Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Visible loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[punkyg]

so where did this area come from?
oh and if it were to develop where would it go.

[MiamiensisWx]

Some thoughts about the SW Caribbean disturbance:

UL divergence is quite strong to the N. The base of a TUTT axis (100-500 mbar) extends across much of the Atlantic above 15N, as seen in the CIMSS UL wind vectors. The shear actually enhanced convection in the SW Caribbean, but there is very little low-level convergence. It only "looks good" on IR imagery, but it doesn't tell the whole story about the poor low-level dynamics. There is no LLC because of these problems. I expect convection to die off overnight, IMO. FWIW, the 12Z Euro leaves unfavorable northerly flow in place across the Caribbean by ~72 hours. It doesn't show any Caribbean development in the low levels at ~850 mbar, too. Note that conditions could easily become more favorable down the road, and I agree with the prospects of one late season TC (quite possibly a hurricane) in the Caribbean during October because of several factors. Any abatement of the global semihemispheric (tropospheric 150 mbar) westerly flow (which has been unfavorable in recent weeks) could easily turn the tide in another direction, especially with an emerging La Nina (i.e. conducive parameters for late season development in 2007's "sweet spot" called the Caribbean). In a nutshell, something could quickly form; I don't believe it will be this particular system.

[americanrebel]

Looks like the Caribbean is already getting pretty active. Nice looking wave by Belize.

[cpdaman]

N. florida looking at a prolonged Nor'easter next week per NOAA jacksonville discussion tonite

jeff morrow (sp?) from TWC said we need to watch the tail end of a front on sunday because some models predict a low pressure trying to get going which may drift westward.

hmm. either way the pressure gradient will be tight and surf up

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on climatology, Euro is on crack, as the only two hurricanes in October in seven decades to effect Texas came from the South, not all the way across the Gulf from Florida (which would be unusual even in August), but it is a fun picture to look at...

[ronjon]

06Z NAM going full tilt with tropical cyclone development in the Bahamas. Yes, I know the NAM overdoes everything. Takes the cyclone west across FL to the eastern GOM in 84 hrs.

[Portastorm]

FWIW, the 6z GFS joins the UKMET and the Euro in developing the low center and gradually sliding it west into the western GOM by 144 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_144l.gif

[flwxwatcher]

06Z NAM going full tilt with tropical cyclone development in the Bahamas. Yes, I know the NAM overdoes everything. Takes the cyclone west across FL to the eastern GOM in 84 hrs.

IMHO the NAM in this situation has some merit. The NAM does poorly in pure Tropical developments but this set-up in ways is close to TD 10 to where this starts out as not purely Tropical and is a hybrid or subtropical at the start of development. the NAM did fine with TD 10. Looks to be an interesting week ahead

[cpdaman]

dr lyons did 950 trop update and didn't really have much to say regarding the area in the bahamas, except to say it will block anything like karen from heading toward the u.s. he did seem to indicate whatever forms will be stationary over the bahamas

i would guesstimate that with the high pressure ridge building down from the northeast that any kind of low pressure in the bahamas may tighten the gradient enough to get very low end (40-45) tropical storm winds near the coast from palm beaches north.

[fci]

dr lyons did 950 trop update and didn't really have much to say regarding the area in the bahamas, except to say it will block anything like karen from heading toward the u.s. he did seem to indicate whatever forms will be stationary over the bahamas

i would guesstimate that with the high pressure ridge building down from the northeast that any kind of low pressure in the bahamas may tighten the gradient enough to get very low end (40-45) tropical storm winds near the coast from palm beaches north.

The pressure gradient will certinaly increase the winds here.
NWS MIA AFD:
"Winds will increase further across the area...and it is possible that we may need a
Wind Advisory for the Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon and/or
night. GFS/NAM/ECMWF all show winds at or above 30 knots just a thousand
feet off the surface then. "

Not unusual for October in SE FL. when we start getting the gradient between fronts that want to come down and their highs and troughs below. Then we get stiff NE winds and rapidly moving showers from time to time.

[Vortex]

NAM 12Z
If this verifies significant beach erosion, coastal flooding, gales and very heavy rainfall for FL

48+

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Vortex]

h+54

TS Winds/Gales approaching central/south florida
with approach of Low..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Vortex]

H+60

Over S.Fl. This has the potential to get very interesting for Gulf coast residents after passing Florida Monday night...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Vortex]

H+60

Passing Florida..GOM next

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72

Stronger heading towards central gulf...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Vortex]

Most models now trending with low pressure in the SE Gulf next week...

[Vortex]

Much stronger..Per NAM at H+78 nearing Hurricane strength in Gulf

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

Per 12 Z NAM..Low pressure to develop across the central Bahamas beginning tonight...Low moves west across S.Fl on Monday night then entering the GOM. Low continues to strengthen as it heads towards the central GOM middle of next week...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml