Not too much out there...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The good thing about that bahamas system
is it will keep temperatures cooler and bring us
a nice breeze

[Steve]

>>P.S. Florida is seeing it's first cool front this weekend - and heavy snows in the mountain west, so...

Yeah, so it means that there will be ridging probably stronger than any models indicate. This isn't the first cold front for Florida, it's about the 5th. And it's the same pattern. But the models have been hinting at overall seasonal changes on the CONUS. The UKMET the other night was just putting a tiny high in the SE with a very deep trough in the west. That's not going to fly any better than this thread will until such time as the season is over.

Current numbers: 13/4/2 = lots going on all season. No ifs. No ands. No buts.

Steve

[psyclone]

As a long time reader and infrequent poster it has become regrettably simple to ferret out perma tropical bulls and bears. They are as predictable as they are tiring. And kudos to you Steve for your consistently outstanding observations and analysis. As for the rest of the season, who knows how it will go. What we do know is that October has spawned some whoppers in the past and from a personal standpoint i have a higher probability of being impacted in October than any other month so i am keeping my eyes peeled until fruit flies descend on my jack-o-lantern.

[Steve]

Thanks bro. I read all Frank2's stuff. He's a good poster too. We just have a disagreement on this thread.
------------------------------------
A lot of posters continue to downplay 2007 which is kind of silly IMO. No one should be surprised to see another 3 or 4 named storms (making it 16 or 17). That also means that there is an outside chance at 9 or 10 landfalls. That's insane in any season.

I just try to call things like I see them with no agenda.

Steve

[TheShrimper]

I will echo the the last posters claim. Good job once again Steve. TheShrimper.

[Frank2]

Sorry if I ruffled some feelings, but, I sometimes just feel it's necessary to put the season into perspective, especially since so many people visit this site who are not weather enthusiasts, and, probably or unknowingly do get upset, after reading some of the posts that state this or that model "are saying" that a system is going to make landfall at one large metropolitan area or another - only for this dire prediction to change completely, a day or two later.

A good example of this was Gabrielle - in a way, it gave me some comfort to know that even one of the long-time meteorologists at TWC (not a regular OCM) commented (on their blog page) at the intensity and number of dire posts over what might become of Gabrielle, to the point that it even upset him...

With all due respect, the regulars here need to understand that perhaps their predictions need to be put in perspective in some way, in order to avoid worrying the average citizen who does visit this site in order "to find out about the hurricane", only to discover many dire predicitons about a potential system, or the season in general...

That's why, as someone who has a bit of past practical experience in this field, I try to post about current systems, to give "the other point of view" when it comes to a system's potential. I sincerely believe that this needs to be emphasized to help the public understand that reality, and, the fact that, while some feel it'll be a busy late season, at this point, the environment is not very favorable at all...

What we also need to remember is how today's world operates, when it comes to any topic that is being discussed on the Internet - if this were 30 years ago, this same topic would only be open to a small group of weather enthusiasts talking about the weather among themselves, whether by a written letter or on the telephone, but, in today's world, millions of people (including those in media or government) can sit at their computer and read exactly what this small group is saying, minute by minute, on web sites such as this...

In the end, there's so much stress in the world today, it's worth the effort to not add to the load - even when it comes to talking about the weather on a web site that is open to the general public...

[Frank2]

Per my comment of late last week:

It's interesting that the professional folks continue to say that "we now entering (or are in) a La Nina pattern", but, it sure doesn't look like it - if anything, it seems like we are still in an El Nino pattern (even though the Pacific ocean temps do not indicate this)...

Wow - talk about a timely news story - hopefully this will deflate some of the comments made about me last week:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... b01_layout

[Sanibel]

Frank2 - If this 91L dark horse forms, gets strong, and heads west, we have some crow to admit to...

[Frank2]

I don't like crow (too tough) - so far it doesn't look like much on satellite...

[Sanibel]

On further analysis, this looks like more shear-bait. Keeps the 2007 disruption pattern theory alive for now.

[americanrebel]

Got to cook the Crow in a Stew, it is nice and tender then. LOL. Who knows what 91L will do or ex-Melissa (or are they the same thing?) out there in the Atlantic.

[Frank2]

There's currently a large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern Caribbean northeastward into southwest Atlantic, but, this still appears to be more related to a trough, than anything else (by the way, the weak low in the Gulf seems to have diminished this morning)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

['CaneFreak]

There's currently a large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern Caribbean northeastward into southwest Atlantic, but, this still appears to be more related to a trough, than anything else (by the way, the weak low in the Gulf seems to have diminished this morning)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Could we spin up two or three systems with one trough? I recall we did that back in 2005 with Ophelia, Nate, and Maria I believe it was.....

[Frank2]

Jeff Masters seems to think we might - we'll see...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Frank you worry me..you are like the oppisite of the boy who cried wolf..No dev,No Dev, No dev..Bam!

Cat 3 from the rear!

I am simply waiting for it to bite you in the rear and we won't see you for a year kinda like in 05 when Katrina went Cat 5...

[Frank2]

Per one or two others on this board, I also have a policy that I won't post when it's obvious that it's a serious situation (as in Dean or Felix), since there's no need for speculation at that point...

At this point, I'm just saying that one of the meteorologists here seems to think that perhaps something might form from the current invest within this trough, so, we'll see - no cry wolf issues here...

My own opinion is that since we are in the last 30% of the season (statistically), the chance is less - Katrina (per what you mentioned) was in the heart of the season, however...

Let's hope that doesn't happen again...

Please remember the admin rules when it comes to inappropriate comments, incidentially - I don't appreciate what you said...

[Sanibel]

The three systems out there in this latest flurry of development have all weakened to the point of ridiculousness. 91L especially puzzles me because, if we are more like September 4th than October 4th, the ITCZ should have supported that system instead of drying it out. This, more than anything, makes the negative pattern phenomenon more than apparent. So it backs Frank's assertion more than anything. I have never seen such a high rate of systems forming accompanied by a negative atmospheric that wipes them all out. And, yes, the fact that it is October does have something to do with this as Frank said.

This is a very interesting season in the opposite sense of crying wolf as someone noted. It's like crying bust and being right.

[Frank2]

Thanks, Sanibel - of course, there could be two or three major hurricanes this month, but, as of now...

Incidentially, Steve Lyons mentioned something very interesting the other evening - of the four hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic basin this season, all (including Dean and Felix) were very small systems...

Some might say no when it comes to Dean and Felix, but, the core winds were only in a very small area - his mentioning this fact made many wonder, I'm sure...

[Category 5]

Per one or two others on this board, I also have a policy that I won't post when it's obvious that it's a serious situation (as in Dean or Felix), since there's no need for speculation at that point...

At this point, I'm just saying that one of the meteorologists here seems to think that perhaps something might form from the current invest within this trough, so, we'll see - no cry wolf issues here...

My own opinion is that since we are in the last 30% of the season (statistically), the chance is less - Katrina (per what you mentioned) was in the heart of the season, however...

Let's hope that doesn't happen again...

Please remember the admin rules when it comes to inappropriate comments, incidentially - I don't appreciate what you said...

Mitch, Lenny, Michelle, Wilma.

[Frank2]

Yes, that's why I said it makes the chance less - not impossible, just less...