Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[fci]

Not supported climatologically.
We'll see.
I'll take more rain though; if it happens.

Seems like these systems bring plenty of promise of nice rainfall and then.....something happens.... and we somehow miss out.

[flwxwatcher]

Looking at the projected 500 MB charts from the NAM at around 84 Hours it looks like the flow weakens as its in a Col between the ridges west and east. If this verifies it would get interesting indeed. Lets see were and if Low pressure develops does develop in the Bahamas and then we should get a better handle on this potential system.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nam did pretty good with the last E of FL Low in bringing it up into NE FL..

[Vortex]

This is a classic October set-up for TC(possible Hybrid initially) formation in the Bahamas...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on climatology, Euro is on crack, as the only two hurricanes in October in seven decades to effect Texas came from the South, not all the way across the Gulf from Florida (which would be unusual even in August), but it is a fun picture to look at...

I would have agreed, but the GFS, NAM, and NOGAPS are also showing something in the GOM headed westward too..so they can't all be on crack, can they? IMO, Just because something hasn't happened in recent times, doesn't mean it can't happen. With the changing weather world we live in...anything is possible. For now I see no need to worry, but if a system does form and the high pressure to the north is in place like the models show, then a western or central GOM threat cannot be ruled out..despite the time of year.

[KatDaddy]

Its been awhile since the TX Coast had tropical cyclone making landfall. The last one was Jerry 89. Lili came quite close. Who knows, with no strong front yet could still see a WGOM threat during the next few weeks.

[cpdaman]

for florida the worst i see (now) would be a coastal flooding threat along with obvious dangerous conditions for boating and swimmers

the gulf despite climatology would have more potential, although i think that would take time because anything in the bahamas, will probably be a hybrid low and the transition would take a couple days (once) it gets into gulf of mexico. i do not see any troughs in the gulf thru next friday (cept a weak one forecast to dissipate over texas mid week) so who knows. i would think central gulf would have better chance.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think an area of low pressure will form in the bahamas,
cross south florida and move westward in the gulf towards
texas. Why? there is no strong trough to break down the massive ridge.

In any case, tropical storm conditions are forecasted
for the waters around florida with "frequent" gale gusts:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw

So a tropical storm will likely intensify in the gulf of
mexico to a hurricane. Also note the absence of shear across
the bahamas.

Texas and Louisiana need to watch this closely, and
over the next 2-3 days florida will get walloped with a pressure
gradient that produces tropical storm conditions.

[Derek Ortt]

6Z model NCEP had NOTHING even resembling a tropical cyclone... NOTHING in the GOM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

6Z model NCEP had NOTHING even resembling a tropical cyclone... NOTHING in the GOM

Derek what do you think will happen with this bahamas tropical wave?
You are much more knowledgeable than I about the tropics.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some Imagery: There does seem to be an
increase in convection:

[Extremeweatherguy]

6Z model NCEP had NOTHING even resembling a tropical cyclone... NOTHING in the GOM

why are you looking at the 6z? The 12z runs are out now, and they do show an area of low pressure.

[Derek Ortt]

when I looked, the 12Z run was not out

[JonathanBelles]

From the HPC: (day 6)



also appears in day 5.

[Steve]

Really looks like another West Gulf threat to me. Some of the earlier models had it as an East Gulf threat, but it would appear that anything coming up is going to be deflected. No doubt that if it is a Texas or Mexico threat, it will be another storm that is getting its act together at landfall. That's been a theme this year that can not be ignored. I've got it about 50% Western Gulf, 35% East Gulf Threat, 10% East Coast threat and 5% North Gulf threat.

Key is most of the models have been understimating the CONUS high pressure and the rebuild back from the SW Atlantic.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

It would certainly feel weird to get hit with an October storm here...but it has happened before, so there is always the possibility it can happen again. This one will be very interesting to watch in the coming days. Let's just hope that, if it forms, it doesn't ever become too powerful.

[HURAKAN]

From Accuweather:

[Honeyko]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

Hmm....

[Derek Ortt]

there is also no TC in the 12Z either

[CrazyC83]

Are those what is left of 97L and/or 98L?