Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

Well. September 2007 beat out September 2005.

September 2005: 5 named storms plus Lee from August.
September 2007: 7 named storms plus Felix from August.

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts on Melissa:
viewtopic.php?p=1646953#p1646953

[sargeabernathy]

Aug! Just realized my mistake! Yes, Pablo has been used. As has Sebastien, and Tanya. Rebekah, Van, and Wendy have never been used before.

[gilbert88]

I must say I expected the "Melissa" storm to be a pretty nasty one. I don't know, the name just sounds... much meaner than Michelle or Marilyn.

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe we'll go through the list this season with a bunch of weak tropical or subtropical storms.

[JonathanBelles]

Exit right, but which stop?

[HURAKAN]

Actually Sandy, there is still Rebekah, which although not exactly brand-new, was a replacement name for Roxanne.

In any event, wow, after Dean and Felix, the deep tropics have been dead in terms of activity! Ingrid, Karen (although I do think she briefly may have been a hurricane), and now Melissa.

I expect Melissa to be a depression later today or tonight, and dissipate tomorrow. The only threat is some flooding in the Cape Verde Islands.

-Andrew92

Same here. A lot of sighs of relief despite the activity - since we were fortunate Humberto and Lorenzo didn't have the time to develop as they had a clear shot at becoming major.

Anyway, the deep tropical Atlantic is probably dead for the season. However, a west Caribbean/Gulf storm could easily become a major problem. The subtropical Atlantic could also produce something significant down the road as well (even if likely a fish)...

My October prediction is 4/2/1.

I meant replacements from the 2001 season.

[HURAKAN]

29/1745 UTC 15.2N 29.0W T2.5/2.5 MELISSA -- Atlantic Ocean







Looking better.

[storms in NC]

The 20 before the 55 is out to sea. I have always gone by that and 99% of the time I am right. So I see this one out to sea.

[punkyg]

How fast is melissa movin? it looks like it barely moved since yesterday.

[cycloneye]

221
WTNT44 KNHC 292031
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

AFTER BEING EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS...NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REGENERATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
PRIMARILY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AS WELL AS THOSE
PROVIDED BY UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STILL A 35-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER MELISSA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE COULD
KEEP ITS STORM STATUS FOR THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND
A COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF
NOT EARLIER.

MELISSA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. IN THE LAST
RUN...MODELS KEEP MELISSA A LITTLE LONGER...AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.6N 29.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 16.3N 30.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 33.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 35.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.0N 37.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.5N 41.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.0N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 26.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

A burst of convection to the east of the center.

Float 2: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

with that latest burst of convection hurakan has shown
I think that melissa will strengthen some probably
to a strong tropical storm prior to encountering
unfavorable conditions.

[Cyclenall]

It looks like a radar hook echo that produces tornadoes on land .

[Cryomaniac]

Maybe we'll go through the list this season with a bunch of weak tropical or subtropical storms.

Thats my thinking as well, I predicted 19 named at the start of the season, but I think it could be as high as 23.

[RL3AO]

While unlikely, the growing La Nina could let us approach the Greek alphabet. I don't think we will get there. Maybe 18 storms?

[punkyg]

ooh looky

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

convective burst may bump this up in strength of that I am
fairly certain in the short term.

[AnnularCane]

How cute! Finally, she gets a floater! Looking good right now.

[HURAKAN]