EPAC: Tropical Depression JULIETTE

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282217
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclenall]

I'm shocked this isn't offically TD14-E already, I thought it should have been at 5:00 pm and it's near 11:00 pm and still nothing!

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290437
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI


They said the same thing 6 hours ago? I'm floored by this. The very deep convection has lasted for a long time (36 hours plus?).

[Chacor]

And of course, no one noticed this became 14E.

WTPZ44 KNHC 290913
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

AFTER GRADUALLY GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING MORE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 30 TO 35
KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE LOWER END OF
THIS RANGE SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL PULSATING A BIT. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INCREASING SHEAR
THEREAFTER WILL PROBABLY PUT A CAP ON INTENSIFICATION...AS WILL
COOLER SSTS BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT ABOUT 285/14 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE
RIDGE AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS IN
TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LESSEN AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PULLS OUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 15.1N 111.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 15.6N 112.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 16.6N 113.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 17.8N 114.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 114.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2007 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 15:30:59 N Lon : 112:06:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.0 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -60.2C Cloud Region Temp : -57.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in WHITE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291433
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

CONVECTIVE BANDING IS IMPROVING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND T-NUMBERS
ARE NOW 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES
AND I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES TO DETERMINE IF
THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DEEMED A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN
IS STEERING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD TURN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE DEPRESSION
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING
TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AS THE
SHALLOWER CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
ONLY THE UKMET IS COUNTER TO THIS SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DISCOUNTS THIS MODEL AND MAKES A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING THE
DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS TO INTENSITY BEFORE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STABLE. AMAZINGLY...THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE
SYSTEM TO ABOUT 40 KT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...AND THE HWRF MODEL
WEAKENS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. THERE IS NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT LEAST A
LITTLE IN THE AVAILABLE WINDOW...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR SO...AND FUTURE
FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CALL FOR QUICKER DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.3N 111.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.9N 113.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 18.9N 115.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 19.7N 115.8W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

$$
NNNN


310
WHXX01 KMIA 291846
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE (EP142007) 20070929 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070929 1800 070930 0600 070930 1800 071001 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 111.8W 17.8N 112.9W 19.5N 114.5W 21.2N 115.9W
BAMD 16.1N 111.8W 17.9N 113.6W 20.6N 115.4W 24.0N 116.9W
BAMM 16.1N 111.8W 17.9N 113.4W 19.9N 115.3W 22.3N 117.1W
LBAR 16.1N 111.8W 17.8N 113.4W 20.3N 115.1W 23.3N 116.6W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 46KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071001 1800 071002 1800 071003 1800 071004 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.6N 117.1W 24.0N 118.8W 25.5N 119.7W 26.6N 118.1W
BAMD 27.7N 117.3W 32.1N 110.7W 32.0N 104.0W 32.6N 98.7W
BAMM 24.5N 118.5W 27.6N 119.6W 30.5N 119.4W 35.0N 112.5W
LBAR 26.2N 117.1W 30.1N 113.9W 32.5N 109.8W 34.1N 103.6W
SHIP 43KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 43KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 111.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 109.9W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 107.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 30NM


Hello Juliette.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, this should be Tropical Storm Juliette. The EPAC has sure been quiet this year...nothing seems to be developing unlike in the Atlantic where we are getting a lot of weak storms...

[HURAKAN]

14E.JULIETTE

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 292031
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE EDGE OF A SOLID CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR TWO
CYCLES NOW...AND WITH A CLEARER KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE.

SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AS WELL AS
CONFIRMATION FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
THEREFORE...JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER ABOUT 36-48
HOURS...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A
WESTWARD TURN WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS.

JULIETTE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH
SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIETTE OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS
THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS WITHIN THE PAST
WEEK. ONCE THESE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 THEN DISSIPATE BY
DAY 5. IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE
COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 16.5N 112.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 17.7N 113.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 19.4N 114.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 115.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.7N 117.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 21.7N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE
COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
____________________________________

Another of Avila's famous moments!!!

[chadtm80]

[JonathanBelles]

Chad: Font color for the stats has to be changed, cant see it very well.

[HURAKAN]

Chad: Font color for the stats has to be changed, cant see it very well.

And it's very small.

[Cyclenall]

IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE
COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
____________________________________

Another of Avila's famous moments!!!

That is another moment. When your bored, amazing things can come out (AKA Kyle).

[RL3AO]

Another great Avila comment.

[HurricaneRobert]

This Juliette is no match for past Juliettes.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 300231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIETTE IS AT
LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT. THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WHICH IS ALLOWING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NONE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

JULIETTE HAS JUMPED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS
THE 6 HR MOTION FROM 18Z-00Z WAS 355/4. SINCE THEN...THE STORM
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 335/7. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
STEER JULIETTE IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR AS
LONG AS THE CYCLONE RETAINS VERTICAL DEPTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A
WESTWARD TURN AND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...BUT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TURN AS JULIETTE
WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO
PERSIST OR INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE JULIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 36-48
HR...AND PROBABLY SPEED THE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45
KT...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR. MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AN EARLIER DISSIPATION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE
JULIETTE WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.2N 112.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 113.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.3N 114.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 22.0N 115.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 04/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt