Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[ronjon]

From NWS Tallahassee AFD:

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WE BASED OUR EXTENDED FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF RUNS. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A GRADUAL RETURN OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO OUR AREA BY MID WEEK AS A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY SUBTROPICAL) DEVELOPS NEAR
SOUTH FL AND MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS HAD A WETTER SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF WAS DRIER. SINCE THEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS COME IN AND IT IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION NOW LOOKS MORE TROPICAL THAN ANYTHING...AND THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A LOT
LIKE WHAT HAPPENED A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH TD 10. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT OUR WIND AND SEAS FORECAST IS TOO LOW AND OUR POP FORECAST
MAY NEED TO COME UP. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT AND WE WOULD PREFER TO HOLD ANY CHANGES TO OUR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THUS WE WILL STICK WITH OUR CURRENT PLAN OF CALLING FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POPS CLIMBING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the Ridge the general pattern:

[hurricanetrack]

Looks to be another Mexico hurricane. The U.S. continues to be spared as only Humberto got past the goalie!

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

Has the GOM system and revives Karen.

[ronjon]

Ok, most models now coming on board (except GFS) with development of low pressure near the Bahamas and retrograding it westward across S FL or the straits into the GOM this week. We now have the 12Z NOGAPs, NAM, UKMET, and the 12Z Euro. The GFS had this scenario but seems to be flip flopping back and forth by taking a piece of energy NE rather than retrograding west. HPC is on board with the Euro (not much surprise there) so it looks inceasingly like we'll see some sort of subtropical or tropical development in the next few days. It could be a lot like TD 10 was about a week ago.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2007092912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007092912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[JonathanBelles]

12z EURO

Has the GOM system and revives Karen.

Karen...if it retains that name...comes back with a vengeance according to that.

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, and we know how great the Euro has been since Dean and Felix. I am in the mode of "I'll believe it when I see it". Too many false alarms this season.

[bwhorton2007]

sorry guys i see nothing in sw carriban at the moment other than everyday coastal thunderstorms.

[fci]

Well lets hope, unlike TD 10, it brings some more much needed rain to South Florida.

[bwhorton2007]

At the moment i see nothing but a wave passing under mid and upper level clouds.Needs
to be more organised even at this point to get anything going by Sunday or Monday.

[cpdaman]

both the miami and melbourne afternoon discussion turned BEARISH on development as well as wind forecasts for eastern florida.

they also backed off their swell forecasts for palm beach. they did say the nite "crew" may have to update forecasts and that it was a complicated 36 hour forecast unfolding,so......let's c.

[deltadog03]

Ya, I think the EURO's flaw is it tries to predict where heat should or will be. Thats not good when you have organizing or weak systems. Synoptically its HANDS down the best model we have. When a system is well established the EURO does VERY good.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like something is trying to get going-
look at that area of convection well
east of florida:


Also on infrared looking very impressive:


This is well east of florida so it has time to ramp up
to a sub or tropical storm before moving over
florida and into the gulf on tuesday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Um, should this thread and the Bahamas thread be merged?


I'd vote for it...

[bwhorton2007]

yeah tampa that is the blowup im watching too.Will continue to watch it to see if it stays persistant.

[cycloneye]

Um, should this thread and the Bahamas thread be merged?


I'd vote for it...

Threads haved been merged.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS continues to show a system in the western GOM in 4/5 days: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

And the 18z NAM is showing a system in the central GOM in 84 hrs moving due west: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_084l.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very windy due to the pressure gradient between
this bahamas Low and the High to the North.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSPG.html
NE 21 Saint Petersburg

Clearwater:
29 17:53 NE 16 G 25 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW038 86 72 30.03 1016.9
29 16:53 NE 16 G 26 10.00 Fair CLR 86 73 30.04 1017.1
29 15:53 NE 25 G 33

Daytona Beach:
29 17:53 NE 18 G 30 8.00 Light Rain SCT029CB SCT041 BKN070 80 70 30.12 1019.7
29 16:53 NE 21 G 28 9.00 A Few Clouds and Breezy FEW027 82 69 30.10 1019.3 0.01
29 15:53 NE 24 G 29 9.00 A Few Clouds and Breezy FEW080 81 70 30.11 1019.7 0.01
29 14:53 NE 17 G 24 8.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW031 BKN065 82 71 30.11 1019.5
29 13:53 NE 23 G 29 6.00 Mostly Cloudy with Haze and Breezy FEW028 BKN040 BKN050 79 71 86 76 30.13 1020.2 0.24 0.24

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDAB.html



Melbourne:
Wind Speed: NE 22 G 28 MPH
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=121

New Smyrna Beach, FL:
29 17:47 E 21 G 33 5.00 Fog/Mist and Breezy BKN020 82 72 30.11 NA
29 16:47 NE 25 G 33 5.00 Fog/Mist and Breezy BKN020 81 73 30.10 NA
29 12:47 NE 9 G 21 4.00 Light Rain SCT025 SCT055 77 72 30.14 NA
29 12:25 NE 24 G 30 4.00 Mostly Cloudy and Breezy BKN030 82 73 30.13 NA

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KEVB.html




Saint Augustine:
29 17:50 NE 21 G 28 7.00 Mostly Cloudy and Breezy BKN030 81 72 30.14 NA
29 16:50 E 21 G 32 7.00 Clear and Breezy SKC 82 70 30.13 NA
29 15:50 NE 22 G 32 7.00 Clear and Breezy SKC 84 72 30.13 NA
29 14:50 NE 22 G 32 7.00 Clear and Breezy SKC 84 72 30.13 NA
29 13:50 E 21 G 30 7.00 Breezy NA 84 72 30.15 NA

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSGJ.html

[bwhorton2007]

This may be our next system just starting out now.let the fun begin.....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Based on wind observations and it looks like it is trying
to go circular on the IR i posted above I expect
this to be our next invest and after that our next
subtropical or tropical system