How many Atlantic systems will be named in October?

[cycloneye]

It will be a busy month,however,it will not be like September.I voted 4.The poll will be open until 4:23 PM EDT on Sunday.IN other words,dont leave the voting for later as it will close in an automatic way at that time.

[Cyclenall]

I voted for four systems as well. I'm the only one who voted so far because it says 1.

[fci]

Well, without looking at the prior two posts I also voted for 4.

[HURAKAN]

I'm thinking between 3 & 5, so I decided for 4.

[JonathanBelles]

I said 4, but 5 is also a likely outcome, but I couldn't pick 2 options. This is my reasoning: Climo says 70% of the season is over. This season is a little behind, so I said 60-65% over. .6*13=7.8, 13-7.8 is 5 rounded. .65*13=8.45 13-8.45=4.55 or 5 rounded. .7*13=9.1 13-9.1=3.9 or 4 rounded. Just thinking that there also is November left for 1 or 2 systems. That is the reason I left it at 4.

[Steve]

4 has the most votes and is also what I voted for. I'd be more comfortable with a vote for 4 storms during October rather than forming in it, but still, consider this.

If we have 4 storms in October (or even through November), that puts us at 17 named storms on the year. That is one of the busiest seasons ever.

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

I say 6/2/1

Why not? La Nina and a heat laten gulf and carribean to tap..

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to go with 5. (Including three hurricanes and one major)

The deep tropics are dead, but the W Caribbean/Gulf should produce a couple, as should the subtropical Atlantic.

[deltadog03]

2

[RL3AO]

The problem is all these good waves are developing before they get to the Caribbean. If these waves could only show some patience.

[Cryomaniac]

I'm going to go with 5. This season is far from over yet.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HOOOTTT heat content in the caribbean
so 6 storms forming around the area and over
the atlantic with at least 1 very strong major
hurricane in the caribbean that does something like
Wilma but maybe less intense than wilma probably
a category 4.

[El Nino]

4 and of them as a US landfalling hurricane, maybe a major.

[stormchazer]

I went with 4.

[Jinkers]

I went with 2

[amosmoses]

i went with 5, 100 percent wishcast

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,a reminder that this poll will close automaticly at 4:23 PM EDT on Sunday so those who haved not voted yet do so between tonight and that time.Dont leave it to the last minute.

[flwxwatcher]

I went with 3 named storms and I think one will be a major

[BigA]

I went with 4; my gut tells me that either three or four is going to be the right answer. Now to go out on a limb, I would say that I would predict one tropical storm or minimal hurricane that develops in the subtropics, (maybe near Bermuda) one Gulf TS that is kept in check by shear, a storm that comes out of the Caribbean and turns east toward Florida, a la Irene or Wilma, and a fourth storm of which I have no idea.

This is an utter guess, and not backed up by sound meteorological principles, except that with a building La Nina, I expect a farily active last part of the season, and that I seem to think something is going to form in the Northwest Caribbean. It has been untouched since Dean.

[BigA]

I did a little bit of number crunching, and here is what I discovered.
From 1995-2006, there have been, on average, 3.75 named storms, 1.67 hurricanes, and .67 major hurricanes during October, November, and December.

If one excludes 1997, 2002, and 2006 (el nino years), as well as 2005, which may be a statistical outlier, one gets 3.875 named storms, 1.875 hurricanes, and .75 major hurricanes during October, November, and December.