Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[bwhorton2007]

When will it start?The dicussion over what if anything this deal becomes or does.

[TheShrimper]

Give it a break till something may consolodate and close off...if ever. In the interum, get out the comic books or the yo-yo for the time being. There is a steep pressure gradient, big deal...it howls on the west coast out of the NW every time a front blows through in the winter. No big deal, chill out.

[Ptarmigan]

Its been awhile since the TX Coast had tropical cyclone making landfall. The last one was Jerry 89. Lili came quite close. Who knows, with no strong front yet could still see a WGOM threat during the next few weeks.

It's really warm for this time of the year. There should be cool fronts. I wonder what September to October 16, 1989 was like. Hurricane Jerry made landfall. I remember May to August 1989 being wet from storms and Alllion and Chantal.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Give it a break till something may consolodate and close off...if ever. In the interum, get out the comic books or the yo-yo for the time being. There is a steep pressure gradient, big deal...it howls on the west coast out of the NW every time a front blows through in the winter. No big deal, chill out.

Not really worried about anything, just Excited

This is why I love this kind of weather with the howling winds.
I played outside in it and it was pure awesome.
There is nothing like the thrill of a howling wind (as long as it
does not increase to cause damage so I say less than
40 mph).
I love it when it howls it is so awesome!!! Especially if that howling is of
tropical origin that gets my adrenaline going-
I'm loving today's strong winds and I hope
it'll increase some.

[bwhorton2007]

Yeah it was in the low 90's here in northern louisiana and that's expected to continue.Not that it has anything to do with the tropics.

[cycloneye]

Pressures are high in the area near the Bahamas being from 1018 to 1014 mbs.Winds are from the Northeast in Florida and the Bahamas islands.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

does look like something is trying to organize see
that circular shape

off topic but my social life sucks right now...

[bwhorton2007]

tampa, look carefully at that area with motion in fact slow the motion down and to me
it appears that there may be a little rotation at lower levels under those clouds.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No October storm in modern history has ever come to Texas from the East. So climatology says no, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

HGX discussion on Jerry

JERRY (Cat. 1 Hurricane - October 15th landfall)
Jerry originated from a tropical wave that moved across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. There were no additional signs of organization before it developed into a tropical depression on 10/12 as it moved into the Bay of Campeche. The depression attained tropical storm strength on the 13th. After some hesitation, shearing and a temporary turn to the northeast, Jerry turned toward the north northwest on the 15th and strengthened to a hurricane. The hurricane made landfall on Galveston Island, near Jamaica Beach, in the evening on the 15th. No hurricane had ever made landfall on the upper TX coast so late in the season. Once inland, Jerry moved over eastern TX, weakened rapidly, and was absorbed by a frontal trough late on the 16th. Maximum sustained surface winds of 65 knots with gusts to 87 knots were measured at Scholes Field on Galveston Island as the eyewall passed over the airport. The observation site lost power near this time, and the observer-estimated maximum sustained winds reached 70 knots with gusts of 90 to 100 knots. An extrapolated minimum central pressure of 982 mb was reported by a NOAA aircraft and by an Air Force plane just prior to landfall. Jerry killed three people, all by drowning when their car was either driven off the Galveston seawall during a blinding rain, or was blown off by the winds.

Jerry's effects were considered minor. There was little wind damage, as the cyclone was of small size and its tropical storm force winds were restricted to a narrow band along its path. Also, Jerry weakened quite rapidly from its already minimal hurricane status after landfall; maximum winds reported at Houston's Intercontinental and Hobby airports were both less than tropical force. The highest tide, 7.0 feet, was reported at Baytown on Galveston Bay, although unofficial reports of an 8 foot tide were received from near the entrance to the Houston ship channel just west of Baytown. Rainfall was generally 2 inches or less in the Houston area, and between 2 and 5 inches eastward from Galveston Bay to the state line. There was one report as high as 6.40 inches from Silsbee. Also, Jerry spawned six tornadoes over Southeast Texas, but all six were momentary and rated as F0 in intensity as they produced little damage along their short path lengths.

Damage estimates for the hurricane were near $70 million. Damage mainly consisted of light beach erosion on portions of Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula, and some flooding. The flooding was mostly of the coastal type produced by storm surge, or of the urban street type caused by sudden isolated downpours of heavy rain.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

tampa, look carefully at that area with motion in fact slow the motion down and to me
it appears that there may be a little rotation at lower levels under those clouds.

I agree. This really needs to be an invest.

[bwhorton2007]

but it is still moving away from florida at this time like i said persistance is the key here
could be signs a low is trying to form.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No October storm in modern history has ever come to Texas from the East. So climatology says no, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

HGX discussion on Jerry

JERRY (Cat. 1 Hurricane - October 15th landfall)
Jerry originated from a tropical wave that moved across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. There were no additional signs of organization before it developed into a tropical depression on 10/12 as it moved into the Bay of Campeche. The depression attained tropical storm strength on the 13th. After some hesitation, shearing and a temporary turn to the northeast, Jerry turned toward the north northwest on the 15th and strengthened to a hurricane. The hurricane made landfall on Galveston Island, near Jamaica Beach, in the evening on the 15th. No hurricane had ever made landfall on the upper TX coast so late in the season. Once inland, Jerry moved over eastern TX, weakened rapidly, and was absorbed by a frontal trough late on the 16th. Maximum sustained surface winds of 65 knots with gusts to 87 knots were measured at Scholes Field on Galveston Island as the eyewall passed over the airport. The observation site lost power near this time, and the observer-estimated maximum sustained winds reached 70 knots with gusts of 90 to 100 knots. An extrapolated minimum central pressure of 982 mb was reported by a NOAA aircraft and by an Air Force plane just prior to landfall. Jerry killed three people, all by drowning when their car was either driven off the Galveston seawall during a blinding rain, or was blown off by the winds.

Jerry's effects were considered minor. There was little wind damage, as the cyclone was of small size and its tropical storm force winds were restricted to a narrow band along its path. Also, Jerry weakened quite rapidly from its already minimal hurricane status after landfall; maximum winds reported at Houston's Intercontinental and Hobby airports were both less than tropical force. The highest tide, 7.0 feet, was reported at Baytown on Galveston Bay, although unofficial reports of an 8 foot tide were received from near the entrance to the Houston ship channel just west of Baytown. Rainfall was generally 2 inches or less in the Houston area, and between 2 and 5 inches eastward from Galveston Bay to the state line. There was one report as high as 6.40 inches from Silsbee. Also, Jerry spawned six tornadoes over Southeast Texas, but all six were momentary and rated as F0 in intensity as they produced little damage along their short path lengths.

Damage estimates for the hurricane were near $70 million. Damage mainly consisted of light beach erosion on portions of Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula, and some flooding. The flooding was mostly of the coastal type produced by storm surge, or of the urban street type caused by sudden isolated downpours of heavy rain.

That statement is actually incorrect. Though very rare, there have actually been 3 storms (since 1885) to have originated to our E/SE and make it all the way to TX during October...


October 1938 storm: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif - - It traveled from just off the west coast of FL all the way to TX during mid October.

October 1912 Hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif - - Peaked at Cat. 2 intensity before making landfall on the south/central TX coast.

1886 TX/LA border Hurricane: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif - - landfall similar to Rita's location.


...and we also cannot forget the most recent "close call". Lili in 2002 definitely got way too close for comfort ( http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )

[Vortex]

Should have Invest later tonight...

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is a hybrid type low developing on schedule centered just east of West End Bahamas. Winds are blowing out of the NE here in ECFL 25-30 MPH as I type..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Bolebuns]

Those all started waaaay south of this system.

[Vortex]

18z NAM appears to have a nice handle on ongoing developments...

[perk]

No October storm in modern history has ever come to Texas from the East. So climatology says no, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

HGX discussion on Jerry

JERRY (Cat. 1 Hurricane - October 15th landfall)
Jerry originated from a tropical wave that moved across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. There were no additional signs of organization before it developed into a tropical depression on 10/12 as it moved into the Bay of Campeche. The depression attained tropical storm strength on the 13th. After some hesitation, shearing and a temporary turn to the northeast, Jerry turned toward the north northwest on the 15th and strengthened to a hurricane. The hurricane made landfall on Galveston Island, near Jamaica Beach, in the evening on the 15th. No hurricane had ever made landfall on the upper TX coast so late in the season. Once inland, Jerry moved over eastern TX, weakened rapidly, and was absorbed by a frontal trough late on the 16th. Maximum sustained surface winds of 65 knots with gusts to 87 knots were measured at Scholes Field on Galveston Island as the eyewall passed over the airport. The observation site lost power near this time, and the observer-estimated maximum sustained winds reached 70 knots with gusts of 90 to 100 knots. An extrapolated minimum central pressure of 982 mb was reported by a NOAA aircraft and by an Air Force plane just prior to landfall. Jerry killed three people, all by drowning when their car was either driven off the Galveston seawall during a blinding rain, or was blown off by the winds.

Jerry's effects were considered minor. There was little wind damage, as the cyclone was of small size and its tropical storm force winds were restricted to a narrow band along its path. Also, Jerry weakened quite rapidly from its already minimal hurricane status after landfall; maximum winds reported at Houston's Intercontinental and Hobby airports were both less than tropical force. The highest tide, 7.0 feet, was reported at Baytown on Galveston Bay, although unofficial reports of an 8 foot tide were received from near the entrance to the Houston ship channel just west of Baytown. Rainfall was generally 2 inches or less in the Houston area, and between 2 and 5 inches eastward from Galveston Bay to the state line. There was one report as high as 6.40 inches from Silsbee. Also, Jerry spawned six tornadoes over Southeast Texas, but all six were momentary and rated as F0 in intensity as they produced little damage along their short path lengths.

Damage estimates for the hurricane were near $70 million. Damage mainly consisted of light beach erosion on portions of Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula, and some flooding. The flooding was mostly of the coastal type produced by storm surge, or of the urban street type caused by sudden isolated downpours of heavy rain.

Ed no disrespect intended, but you are way to caught up on this climotology thing. I agree that an October storm is more unlikely than likely to occur in the western GOM, but can't you remotely entertain the fact that the atmosphere just may allow one storm to get through without a trough deflecting it.Remember murphy's law (anything that can go wrong will go wrong).

[mvtrucking]

18z NAM appears to have a nice handle on ongoing developments...

Do you have a link Vortex? Thanks in advance.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM loop


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[hurricanetrack]

Why no mention of this future system in the TWO.