Wave in East Atlantic

[Anthonyl]

A few of the computer modles seem to want to develop the complex of showers(associated with a tropical wave) over the next couple of days as it traverses the Atlantic. It would be interesting to see how this pans out as conditions are expected to improve accross the basin with a stronger high pressure ridge expected to retrograde from the US coast to the Norther Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[CrazyC83]

The shear to the north should prevent any development IMO. Cape Verde is done I think.

[Derek Ortt]

this one is coming off far enough to the south... could develop very easily

[Anthonyl]

Dereck as the go man, what do you expect given the upper air paterns forcasted over the next 7 days.

[Derek Ortt]

they should be favorable enough to at least get a TS out of this

this would be a big model bust if this does not form

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has about 48-60 hours before it runs into the super tutt. So maybe a chance for some development. As for TD 14 it will have to recurve with the shear to have any chance at a name. Derek do you agree or disagree?

[OURAGAN]

The next player is the system at 10N/18W, convection is on the increase.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TWD 8:05pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ON THE 18Z ANALYSIS ALONG 18W S OF
14N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOWER
AMPLITUDE THAT MANY OF PREVIOUS ONES THIS MONTH. THERE ARE
SEVERAL DATA SOURCES SUPPORTING THE EXISTENCE OF THIS NEW WAVE.
THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A MODEST BULGE OF MOISTENED AIR
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS SHOW
A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING DATA
FROM DAKAR SHOWS THE 600-800 MB FLOW VEERING TO THE SE AND
ACCELERATING BEHIND THE WAVE.

[Anthonyl]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/ATSA_latest.gif

Low to be introduced with our wave.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOWER IN AMPLITUDE THAN MANY OF PREVIOUS WAVES THIS MONTH. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A MODEST BULGE OF MOISTENED AIR OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 24W-26W.

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 010552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.

[Cyclone1]

It sure is late to have waves coming off of Africa. This year is really outta whack.

[Gustywind]

It sure is late to have waves coming off of Africa. This year is really outta whack.

Yeah keep watching them in case of Mother has alaways surprises in store and thus this year...