Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

In terms of named storms:
Atlantic: 13
West Pacific: 13
East Pacific: 10

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

29/2345 UTC 15.7N 29.7W T2.5/2.5 MELISSA -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0112 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA (AL142007) 20070930 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070930 0000 070930 1200 071001 0000 071001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 29.7W 17.0N 31.9W 18.7N 34.0W 20.3N 35.8W
BAMD 15.6N 29.7W 16.4N 30.5W 17.3N 31.4W 18.4N 32.2W
BAMM 15.6N 29.7W 16.5N 31.3W 17.4N 32.8W 18.4N 34.3W
LBAR 15.6N 29.7W 16.8N 30.7W 18.4N 31.8W 20.2N 32.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071002 0000 071003 0000 071004 0000 071005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 37.2W 24.6N 38.1W 25.7N 35.2W 25.2N 32.1W
BAMD 19.6N 32.5W 22.1N 30.3W 22.7N 21.6W 26.6N 14.0W
BAMM 19.3N 35.7W 21.5N 37.8W 23.8N 35.6W 24.5N 28.4W
LBAR 22.3N 32.5W 26.5N 29.2W 29.1N 21.3W 31.7N 13.3W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 29.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 28.1W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 27.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM


40KT RMAXWD

Intensity is now 40kts.

[cycloneye]

418
WTNT44 KNHC 300231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR MELISSA FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
INCREASING A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE NUDGED
UPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST... AND THEN
IS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES OVER
30 KT OF DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY SHEAR. MELISSA IS A SMALL TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND SINCE SMALL STORMS ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO DISSIPATE FASTER THAN
SHOWN BELOW.

THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
295/8...BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CENTER
BEING OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF MELISSA SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A
SMALL ACCELERATION. IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A BIT...IT MAY
BRIEFLY MOVE A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...BUT THAT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT
OVER COOLER WATERS MORE QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF
THE UMKET/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 15.8N 30.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 31.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 17.4N 33.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 35.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 38.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 22.0N 42.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very intense convection...this has a chance of reaching
60 mph before weakening...and there is an outside
shot of it reaching hurricane status if it can maintain
that intense convection before shear begans impacting
it.

[CrazyC83]

Small storms are highly prone to dramatic intensity changes...so it may intensify rapidly and it may dissipate in a hurry. Once in the shear, it should die a lot faster than Karen did.

[HURAKAN]

Melissa.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 300826
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS GETTING THE BEST OF MELISSA AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION RECENTLY BECAME EXPOSED. NEW CONVECTION HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BEING SHUNTED EASTWARD. BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. WITH THE
SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN A
DAY OR SO...MELISSA COULD STRUGGLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...IF NOT
SOONER.

MELISSA HAS PICKED UP FORWARD SPEED WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
NOW 295/11. THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG
MELISSA CAN MAINTAIN APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEPTH. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW MELISSA REMAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONE WITH A
SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE WEAKER AND SHALLOWER HWRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CYCLONE
SHOW AN ALMOST INSTANT TURN WESTWARD. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES MELISSA WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT IS SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.5N 31.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 17.2N 33.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 18.3N 35.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.3N 37.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 20.5N 39.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.0N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

406
WHXX01 KWBC 301259
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA (AL142007) 20070930 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070930 1200 071001 0000 071001 1200 071002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 32.0W 17.2N 34.8W 18.7N 37.2W 19.8N 39.0W
BAMD 15.9N 32.0W 16.8N 33.7W 17.9N 35.2W 19.1N 36.6W
BAMM 15.9N 32.0W 16.8N 34.2W 17.8N 36.2W 18.6N 37.9W
LBAR 15.9N 32.0W 16.9N 33.5W 18.2N 34.9W 19.8N 35.9W
SHIP 30KTS 26KTS 24KTS 24KTS
DSHP 30KTS 26KTS 24KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071002 1200 071003 1200 071004 1200 071005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 40.8W 23.0N 42.0W 24.2N 41.7W 25.9N 40.7W
BAMD 20.3N 37.7W 24.3N 34.9W 27.0N 15.6W 30.8N 4.1W
BAMM 19.5N 39.5W 21.8N 40.9W 24.4N 38.4W 26.7N 30.3W
LBAR 21.2N 36.5W 24.9N 34.0W 29.0N 25.7W 31.6N 16.8W
SHIP 22KTS 22KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 22KTS 22KTS 23KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 29.9W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 28.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Downgraded to TD.

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 301442
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON MELISSA. AFTER MOST OF
THE CONVECTION DISSIPATED ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY
BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SMALL PULSATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT
HAVE EACH LASTED ABOUT 3 HOURS. AN 0818 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT WHATEVER CENTER REMAINS IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...REQUIRING A RELOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 25 KT
AND MELISSA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. SINCE MELISSA IS BECOMING A
SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE RELOCATION...AND IS CLOSER
TO THE HWRF AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE AS
WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS MELISSA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BECOME
LESS DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT GENERATE ENOUGH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.1N 32.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 16.7N 34.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 36.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.8N 38.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.2N 40.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be rapidly falling apart. I'd say this will meet its demise today - and unlike Karen, it has virtually no chance of coming back.

[cycloneye]

665
WTNT34 KNHC 302039
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2007

...MELISSA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
665 MILES...1070 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MELISSA IS DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.3 N...34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MELISSA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

The Last advisory.

586
WTNT44 KNHC 302046
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

AS WAS THE CASE WITH INGRID...AND KAREN...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED
ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN.

MELISSA HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE FEW VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION TODAY...EACH OF WHICH HAS LASTED ONLY A FEW HOURS.
SINCE MELISSA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...IT NO LONGER CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE REMNANT LOW...IF IT SURVIVES FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.3N 34.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.7N 35.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1800Z 17.7N 38.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Awww, that sucks Melissa that you couldn't get going - HAHA!!!

See ya in 2013, and don't let the crash on you!

[Brent]

Bye Melissa.

We'll barely remember you(like most of the storms this year).

[AnnularCane]

No fair, she doesn't deserve two kicks!

Sorry Melissa. You were just born in a bad spot. Maybe next time.

[Cyclone1]

I go away for one weekend and miss an entire tropical storm? Oh, well. Looked like a dud anyway.