October 5-6 - Severe weather outbreak? - Midwest/Plains

[CrazyC83]

This was the October 2 topic, but it has been changed to continue discussion.

[RL3AO]

Interesting. I will have to keep my eye on this over the next few days.

[Beam]

Hmm, 30% on Day 3 is pretty unusual. It's over my area too. This should be interesting.

[RL3AO]

Wow. It looks like we might have the first true severe weather outbreak since May.

[CrazyC83]

Wow. It looks like we might have the first true severe weather outbreak since May.

That seems quite possible. Not exactly a common place for a fall outbreak, but it could get interesting. A MDT on Day 2 is very possible.

[RL3AO]

Perfect timing for the new warning system.

[simplykristi]

Looks like today we could have severe weather. A Severe T-storm Watch has been posted for eastern Kansas and western Missouri until 8:00 PM CDT.

Kristi

[MississippiHurricane]

MY AFD discussion metioned something about a STRONG cold front next weekend.......im guessing this could be it?? Just goes to show.........its that time of year again!!

[RL3AO]

It looks like it will be a line of storms over the plains with minimal number of supercells.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it will be a line of storms over the plains with minimal number of supercells.

Looking that way too now and the threat has shifted farther south.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we are getting something?

2145 1 W MEMPHIS SCOTLAND MO 4046 9219 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CONFIRMED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. BUILDINGS DAMAGED, POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (DVN)
2200 SHELBINA SHELBY MO 3969 9204 SHERIFF DEPT REPORTED TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE JUST SOUTH OF SHELBINA. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LSX)
2205 MONROE CITY MONROE IL 3825 9027 CONFIRMED TORNADO AND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MONROE CITY. TIME APPROZIMATELY 505 - 510 PM. (LSX)
2205 MONROE CITY MONROE MO 3965 9173 CONFIRMED TORNADO AND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MONROE CITY. TIME APPROZIMATELY 505 - 510 PM. (LSX)
2223 4 NE GRANVILLE MONROE MO 3960 9204 *** 1 INJ *** NEAR HWY 15 AND RT CC...BARN DESTROYED..LARGE TREES DOWN...1 REPORTED INJURY. (LSX)
2223 7 W HANNIBAL MARION MO 3971 9152 TORNADO ON THE GROUND 7 WEST OF HANNIBAL. (LSX)

[CrazyC83]

Now up to 8 tornado reports. This sure came out of nowhere - it looked like a bust, and boom!

[RL3AO]

Just issued.

[CrazyC83]

Instant upgrade:

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JEFFERSON CITY
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 700...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED WITHIN THE LARGER BAND
OF CONVECTION ACROSS E/NE MO THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE MO INTO W CENTRAL IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON

[RL3AO]

Look at the lack of hail and wind reports.

[CrazyC83]

Look at the lack of hail and wind reports.

That suggests we have an event of low-topped supercells, which baffle even the best of forecasters.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022316Z - 030015Z

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN IA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

A STRONG SLY 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH A 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
ATTENDING AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN LARGE
0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ACROSS ERN IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN
IA NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WITHIN THE
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ARE RESULTING IN A CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND IF STORMS DO NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE
EWD INTO A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..DIAL.. 10/02/2007


ATTN...WFO...DVN...

40969080 40879218 42419193 42229032

[CrazyC83]

Maybe a MDT at 0100Z? Although by then it might be waning...

[RL3AO]

They might need a watch in Eastern Iowa.

EDIT: SPC agrees.

[HurricaneBill]

Up to 10 tornado reports now, including 2 injuries.

Was there just a tornado warning in Arizona? I was looking at the NWS page and it had a red tornado warning dot in central north Arizona. Coconino County, I think.