Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[bwhorton2007]

like i said earlier

[caneman]

Boy the negativiy on the board when there isn't a storm to track. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN AN ACTIVE SEASON -despite what some may say. FYI-NAM isn't the only one looking at this possibility. IF I weren't so tired I'd post the links but would be better if it were done by the naysayers themselves. Folks, step away from the computer once in awhile and gather a breath, go for a walk....... OR just get a good nights sleep like I'm gonna. Save up for when there is one to track.

[hurricanetrack]

From Todays afternoon AFD from the NO Weather Office:

DRIER CONDTIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH
EASTERLY WINDS MAY YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BILOXI MARSH
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO
BE FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE DEEPENS AND SURGES NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. THE NAM SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THE NAM
IS WANTON OF SUCH BEHAVIOR. WILL WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BUT
NOW IS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.

Wow- it's come to watching the NAM for tropical storm formation. You know it's a strange season when that happens.

Can anyone find an NHC advisory that referenced the NAM or former ETA or what ever the heck it has been called over the years?

I just don't remember ever seeing anything like this:

Hurricane Jack is forecast by all of the global models, including the NAM, to turn west under a developing deep layer ridge.

Or....

The forecast track is in best agreement with the NAM.

Let me know if I missed that some time in the past....

There you have it. I knew someone would be able to shed some light on the subject.

[flwxwatcher]

It would be my guess that any development would be at first hybrid or non-tropical much like the situation we had with TD10 and the NAM did well with that system and I am sure it was because it didn't start off as a pure tropical system . The NAM is poor IMHO in true tropical development situations.. Seeing the 200mb from the NAM makes me think even more that this would be some type of hybrid system ,though I guess if a tropical system stayed directly underneath an upper low where the shear would be light it could develop.. I would like to hear some Pro Mets thoughts on this . Anyways.. should be an interesting week ahead

[bwhorton2007]

Oh boy hopefully not another TD 10 situation i would rather nothing happen than go through that mess again.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 30 hours


50kt of upper winds

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 72 hours

00z GFS 200mb at 84 hours

00z GFS 200mb at 120 hours

00z GFS 200mb at 132 hours

Too much strong upper winds for a system that may try to develop in the GOM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow if that shear verifies...wow then shear has
really ruled the season....

But I'll be hopeful that I can get some
tropical storm force wind action as it crosses florida.
I Really want a homegrown storm to chase and get on video.

[Derek Ortt]

THIS HAS NOT BEEN A SHEAR DOMINATED SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am really thankful that I did not post on a forum in 1997, a season that actually was shear dominated. If it's bad now, it really would have been unbearable that year when 100KT of shear ruled the Carib

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

THIS HAS NOT BEEN A SHEAR DOMINATED SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am really thankful that I did not post on a forum in 1997, a season that actually was shear dominated. If it's bad now, it really would have been unbearable that year when 100KT of shear ruled the Carib

allright that was an exaggeration, but I just hope the shear lets up for
this system...I want to chase at least one good tropical storm
before the season is out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

convection now further south:

[cpdaman]

zanax anyone

the lightning right now is very persistant in palm beach, FL as are winds IMO gusting over 30 at the coast probably more. before the rain the winds were strong but not this much.

it is very squally here, and the radar will attest to that.

lots of convection flaring in SE bahamas circa 22 74

[AJC3]

It would be my guess that any development would be at first hybrid or non-tropical much like the situation we had with TD10 and the NAM did well with that system and I am sure it was because it didn't start off as a pure tropical system . The NAM is poor IMHO in true tropical development situations.. Seeing the 200mb from the NAM makes me think even more that this would be some type of hybrid system ,though I guess if a tropical system stayed directly underneath an upper low where the shear would be light it could develop.. I would like to hear some Pro Mets thoughts on this . Anyways.. should be an interesting week ahead

Can't see anything to argue with your analogy to TD 10. Clearly what the guidance is indicating strong baroclinic forcing is going to be what causes pressures to fall, an inverted trough to form, etc, etc. Even if nothing much comes of this, us peeps on the FL east coast are in for a couple more days of blustery conditions, high seas and surf, beach erosion, and showery, almost "squally" type weather.

[Ptarmigan]

THIS HAS NOT BEEN A SHEAR DOMINATED SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am really thankful that I did not post on a forum in 1997, a season that actually was shear dominated. If it's bad now, it really would have been unbearable that year when 100KT of shear ruled the Carib

All that shear came from El Nino that time. I remember 1997 had an early start also. 1983 also was shear dominated as well because you guess it El Nino.

[attallaman]

My local TV MET mentioned last night something about a L developing near the Bahamas which would possibly track across or to the S of FL before finally making it's way into the GOM. He said this will need to be watched. When will we get a better handle on this? In the next 2 to 3 days?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heaviest rains over southeast florida
right now...

[cycloneye]

5:30 AM TWO

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BAHAMA ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

[Toadstool]

Tons of rain all last night here in Ft. Lauderdale. Here's what AccuWeather is saying...

Finally, a front is becoming stationary between the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda, which is causing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure is beginning to take shape in the area between Bermuda and the Bahamas, which is likely to become more organized over the next 24-36 hours. There is a good chance that the low becomes tropical in nature in time. Meanwhile, upper-level high pressure over the Southeast will build eastward toward Bermuda, which will most likely cause the low to drift to the west. Most of the computer models show that the low will be in a position to threaten Florida early next week, and then may track into the Gulf of Mexico after that. There is also some chance that the low tracks a little farther north and ends up off the Southeast Coast. As a result, residents and those with interests along the Gulf Coast, the Southeast Coast and particularly the Florida Peninsula should keep close watch on developments in this area.

link: http://tinyurl.com/2oxvkp

[caneman]

06Z UKMET showing some low pressure off the West tip of Cuba

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

00z NOGAPS Animation

The 00z NOGAPS has something in the Gulf of Mexico but it doesnt start in the Bahamas.