WPAC: Tropical Depression LEKIMA

[Chacor]

No, because JTWC is unofficial. Example, Rumbia last year was named before JTWC declared TD, and NRL kept it as INVEST.

[Chacor]

Here we go: 0714

274
WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0714 LEKIMA (0714) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 15.2N 116.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 450NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 15.8N 115.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 020000UTC 17.5N 114.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 030000UTC 19.2N 112.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[CrazyC83]

The WPAC has had a much slower year than last year...La Nina to blame?

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2007 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 15:26:45 N Lon : 115:58:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1003.0mb/ 25.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.6 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -0.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.22^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Chacor]

PAGASA has stopped avisories.

JMA up to 40 kt.

572
WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0714 LEKIMA (0714)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 14.9N 115.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 450NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 16.6N 114.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 020600UTC 18.6N 113.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030600UTC 20.2N 110.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[P.K.]

[Chacor]

JTWC vastly different, more southerly:

[CrazyC83]

Interesting difference of opinion. I would say the JMA is probably closer to what should happen.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 997.6mb/ 34.0kt

[Chacor]

Nearly an STS now.

594
WTPQ20 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0714 LEKIMA (0714)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 14.7N 113.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 450NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 17.3N 111.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 021800UTC 18.8N 109.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 031800UTC 20.0N 106.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[WindRunner]

I hope that's just an error in the radius of 30kt winds . . . otherwise that's some huge monsoonal depression we got going . . .

[P.K.]

The current 30kt radii is listed at 850km just as it was this morning.

Edit - The latest CMA bulletin also has a large wind radii although only at 400km for 30kt winds.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 301800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS LEKIMA 0715 (0714) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC
00HR 14.7N 113.3E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS 400KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 16.3N 111.0E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 109.3E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 19.5N 107.4E 980HPA 30M/S=

Hong Kong are slightly below that at 333km.

** WTSS20 VHHH 301945 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA (0714) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE
ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

The map Chacor posted above is only about half of even what Hong Kong are saying but is in agreement with the latest bulletin from Taiwan.

Tropical Storm LEKIMA (0714)
Typhoon Status
1800UTC 30 September 2007
Center Location 14.7N 113.3E
Movement WEST 13km/hr
Minimum Pressure 990hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 23m/s
Gust 30m/s
Radius of 15m/s 150km
Radius of 25m/s -km

[P.K.]

Just upgraded.

WTPQ20 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0714 LEKIMA (0714) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 14.7N 112.9E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 16.9N 111.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 021800UTC 18.8N 109.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 031800UTC 20.0N 106.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[CrazyC83]

Not quite forecasting a typhoon, but that seems quite possible.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it might be a typhoon...

[Chacor]

Forecast now shows typhoon.

213
WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0714 LEKIMA (0714) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 14.8N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 450NM
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 16.6N 110.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 030000UTC 18.4N 108.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 040000UTC 19.7N 105.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

Whoa.

[Chacor]

Continued, VERY, deep convection.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is almost, if not, a typhoon now.