Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[BigA]

According to the GFS and NOGAPS shear maps, it looks like shear over the system is going to significantly decrease within the next 24 hours. The NOGAPS shows the conditions becoming favorable(blue) within 24 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=024hr as does the GFS at 24 hours (though there is still a strong band of shear to the west) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=024hr I'm not intending to wishcast; it remains to be seen whether the shear actually decreases as forecast.

[Gustywind]

Interresting to note.... active weather down the road for... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 620 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER TROFFING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
SSW INTO THE NE CARIB THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CNVTN E OF
TROF AXIS. MODELS FORECAST ASSOCIATED UPPER VORT CENTER NEAR 24N 62W TO SINK SSE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INDUCE A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
REGION...LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE UPPER CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO CAP OFF VERTICAL MOTION. THUS ACTIVE WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS.THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINS OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTING ALONG 52/53W WHILE THE LLVL ASSORTMENT OF VORTS SEEN YESTERDAY IN VIS IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS
WWD...ALONG WITH
FRAGMENTED/SHEARED MOISTURE...AND ACTING TO ALIGN IN BANDS AND SQUALLS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CNVTN. THIS ACTIVITY WILLCONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARDS AND THEN MORE NW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING-EARLY TONIGHT.
INTERACTION WITH BROAD TURNING AT UPPER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR
INTERMITTENT SQUALLS AND TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE E HALF OF LOCAL WATERS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND MUCH OF P.R. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE CELLS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LLVL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND ENERGY OF AROUND 20 KT DEPICTED BY VARIOUS SCATTEROMETERS AND RADIOMETERS PAST 12 HOURS OR SO AS 15-20 KTS NEAR SURFACE WINDS.

ITCZ MOISTURE SPREAD FROM THE N WINDWARDS NW TO THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA WILL SHIFT NNW OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TO BRING EVEN
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ALLOWING FOR SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND HIGHER PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS.
ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON REMNANTS OF
KAREN...GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SE/E
SECTIONS OF PR AND ADJACENT WATERS WILL SEE BEST MOISTURE AND MOST
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF CVNTN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
A S TO SE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CNVTN MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AN ESE TO SE FLOW AT 16-20 KT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH WIND GUSTS 30-35KT LIKELY IN SQUALLS AND TSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN REMNANTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WHOLE KAREN
COMPLEX SHIFTS GRADUALLY NW NEXT FEW DAYS. ELY SWELL AROUND 4 FEET
GENERATED FROM KAREN A FEW DAYS AGO BEGAN TO HIT BUOY 41043
YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS. INCREASING SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY WILL CREATE SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THIS AND WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY AS LLVL TROF EXTENDING FROM KAREN REMNANTS INTO E CARIB SHIFTS NNW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...LOCAL SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
FOR ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS. LATER IN THE DAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEARBY THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...NEAR SAINT THOMAS...SAINT CROIX AND AGUADILLA.
IN BETWEEN 17-21Z TIME FRAME...I AM EXPECTING STORMS TO AFFECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED AIRPORTS
ABOVE...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SOME OCCASIONS AND THEN BOUNCING BACK TO VFR COND.
AS STORM PASSES.
What a forecast of the remnants of Karen..

Wind shear tendency...decreasing winds can be observed in vicinity of the Leewards Islands... according to this map...testifying the NHC forecast and why they are indicate more favorable winds in the next 24-48h...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Gustywind]

According to the GFS and NOGAPS shear maps, it looks like shear over the system is going to significantly decrease within the next 24 hours. The NOGAPS shows the conditions becoming favorable(blue) within 24 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=024hr as does the GFS at 24 hours (though there is still a strong band of shear to the west) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=024hr I'm not intending to wishcast; it remains to be seen whether the shear actually decreases as forecast.

Absolutely Big A the last trend seems to confirm that, tkanks for the latest models solutions , something to watch as it approaches the islands with less shear and more convection in the area with warms ssts...perhaps a strong wave in the area?!

[msbee]

We re getting a fair amount of rain here this morning. is that a part of Karen that has sheared off and is just East of us?

[Sanibel]

Weak surface spiral remnant is showing increased motion west.

[Gustywind]

Weak surface spiral remnant is showing increased motion west.

Absolutely Sanibel ... and increasing convection...convection is expanding more the south and the west of the system approaching 14,5 °N right now...seems that if this trend persists today wet weather conditions will occur in the next 24-24h...
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg
Moreover, NRL site keep it at 17, 0 N 54W 1009 hpa 30 kt 1315 UTC
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

[Gustywind]

We re getting a fair amount of rain here this morning. is that a part of Karen that has sheared off and is just East of us?

Maybe moist air in vicinity of Karen allowing for nice convection near our island with the influence of the light winds in our area...so very moist air near us influend by local effects and remanats of karen approaching...consequently .... chances for strong showers are quite in your location given the actual synopsis... Note that i've towering clouds trying to pop with moist air surrounding my area too Msbee but looking at the lastest sat pic you have experienced big showers this morning and right now
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Convection expanding s an w

[Gustywind]

Convection popping steadily ans fairly as previously mentionned on the w and s side of the system
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yup I think karen will make a surprise comeback as shear decreases.

[Chacor]

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED EAST OF LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ARE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Same here. I think the chance of a comeback is 50% at this point.

BTW, the title should be changed from TD Karen to "Remnant low (ex-Karen)" or something like that.

[Gustywind]

Conditions are very moist near the Leewards right now thunder is roaring and numerous towering clouds can be observed some CB are approaching in vicinty...

[msbee]

We re getting a fair amount of rain here this morning. is that a part of Karen that has sheared off and is just East of us?

Maybe moist air in vicinity of Karen allowing for nice convection near our island with the influence of the light winds in our area...so very moist air near us influend by local effects and remanats of karen approaching...consequently .... chances for strong showers are quite in your location given the actual synopsis... Note that i've towering clouds trying to pop with moist air surrounding my area too Msbee but looking at the lastest sat pic you have experienced big showers this morning and right now
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Convection expanding s an w

The sun is shining now but we did receive 2 inches of rain over night and early this morning.
I took this picture of our clouds earlier this morning as it was raining but also the sun was trying to break out.

[JonathanBelles]

Nice Picture!!

[Sanibel]

Karen is holding slightly better than Ingrid. The track of the surface feature is WELL south and west of where they predicted.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

what is the projected path? Into the caribbean or north of
the islands?

[Gustywind]

We re getting a fair amount of rain here this morning. is that a part of Karen that has sheared off and is just East of us?

Maybe moist air in vicinity of Karen allowing for nice convection near our island with the influence of the light winds in our area...so very moist air near us influend by local effects and remanats of karen approaching...consequently .... chances for strong showers are quite in your location given the actual synopsis... Note that i've towering clouds trying to pop with moist air surrounding my area too Msbee but looking at the lastest sat pic you have experienced big showers this morning and right now
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Convection expanding s an w

The sun is shining now but we did receive 2 inches of rain over night and early this morning.
I took this picture of our clouds earlier this morning as it was raining but also the sun was trying to break out.

Tkanks very nice pic Msbee

[cycloneye]

[BigA]

I would think that if remenants of Karen were to redevelop, it would be more likely with a circulation reforming under the convection, than with convection bursting under the remenant circulation (if there is any left). In any case, according to the notorious Wisconsin shear maps, the shear looks to be beginning to abate, but there is a long long ways to go before Karen could redevelop.

[Stephanie]

Great picture msbee!

Luis - I'm assuming that the elongated blob next to the islands is Karen. I wish that she would make her way to the Mid Atlantic. It's starting to get too dry up my way as well.