Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 13:15 UTC

[Sanibel]

We are seeing a formation rate similar to 2005, but with all the systems being blown away by shear. Interesting.

The remnant trough material was the culprit after all for this prognosed system. Just a little further north than expected in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-128

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z

Recon on tuesday afternoon,if necessary.Invest 90L will be up later today or tonight.

[wxman57]

wxman57- GFS would appear to show dramatic reversal in shear (6Z run) near possible Gulf system of Louisiana about Friday. Although the gradient is rather sharp with the shear, and the low would have to be positioned right...

Too soon to tell, perhaps, in my petroleum engineering opinion (ie, amateur weather opinion)

Shear loop

Ed, the shear map you posted is for next Friday - after whatever develops is nearly inland. Of course the shear maps show low shear dead center in the middle of a large upper low. But the surface low would form east of the upper low in the higher shear environment where there's enhanced lifting.

One other thing, I've noticed you're always quite "pro-development", to put it mildly. The title of one of your threads about the storms (remnants of Lorenzo) moving inland along the TX coast yesterday/today is quite revealing: "If only there was a surface feature East of Tamaulipas". Careful about letting your desires to experience a TC influence your opinion of what might happen.

[RL3AO]

They just keep coming. I thought that maybe the first week of October would have nothing, but I might be wrong.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

wxman57- GFS would appear to show dramatic reversal in shear (6Z run) near possible Gulf system of Louisiana about Friday. Although the gradient is rather sharp with the shear, and the low would have to be positioned right...

Too soon to tell, perhaps, in my petroleum engineering opinion (ie, amateur weather opinion)

Shear loop

Ed, the shear map you posted is for next Friday - after whatever develops is nearly inland. Of course the shear maps show low shear dead center in the middle of a large upper low. But the surface low would form east of the upper low in the higher shear environment where there's enhanced lifting.

One other thing, I've noticed you're always quite "pro-development", to put it mildly. The title of one of your threads about the storms (remnants of Lorenzo) moving inland along the TX coast yesterday/today is quite revealing: "If only there was a surface feature East of Tamaulipas". Careful about letting your desires to experience a TC influence your opinion of what might happen.

I have many times made the big mistake of letting my desire
to experience a tropical storm influence my science and bias it.
And I often end up feeling a big let down when the action
doesn't happen.

But I'll try really hard not to get carried away

[hiflyer]

One sleepless night from midnight on....lines of storms marched thru all night...the 4th line is coming thru now but is far weaker that the preceeding. Radar says 1-2 inches at the coast but 4-5 inland for Broward County down here in SE Florida...Ft Lauderdale. Not sure I see the rotation folks are seeing on visible...your mileage may vary..grin...radar does show opposing wind factors out in the Bahamas I can't see a rotation...yet????? With the winds forecasted steady 20kts and gust 30 for this afternoon for the airports down here per the NWS discussion there apparently is plenty of energy....hmmmmm

[Evil Jeremy]

This reminds me of TD10.

[Typhoon_Willie]

You may want to check out the Western Atlantic Loop. You could speed up the frames to see the rotation that is occuring near Grand Bahama better. Not sure if that low is tropical in nature or baroclinic (winter storm configuration) though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW. Tropical Storm Wind Gusts being forecasted for saint pete:
I'm sure the winds will be higher along floridas east coast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=151

Today: Isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. Northeast wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with a northeast wind between 16 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Northeast wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Isolated showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a northeast wind between 21 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 20 to 23 mph decreasing to between 11 and 14 mph. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

[jasons2k]

This looks like the last threat of the season for TX. Models show it headed west across the GOM and this weekend the first "real" front of the fall season should arrive. Combining the two could produce a big rain event. An interesting scenario shaping up...hopefully the 2007 hurricane season for TX won't go out with a bigger bang than Humberto.

[chadtm80]

The High Winds have actually been due to The High

Wind Advisory:


Issued at: 8:26 AM EDT 9/30/07, expires at: 7:00 PM EDT 9/30/07

wind advisory remains in effect until 7 pm edt this evening
A wind advisory remains in effect until 7 pm edt this evening.
A strengthening high pressure center over new england will produce strong northeast winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
A wind advisory means that sustained winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boating on inland lakes and the intracoastal waters will be very dangerous.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a portion of the latest NWS discussion from the Miami NWs office...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.UPDATE...STRONG NE FLOW CONTINUES AND ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO SE FLORIDA. BUT THE GFS40 SHOWS A STEADILY DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE DAY IN THE MEAN RH`S SO THE TREND TO DROP THE
POPS TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 4000 FEET AND
THEY ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE KXMR SOUNDING. WILL NOT ADD
ANY ADVISORIES WITH RESPECT TO WIND ATTM. WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z
RUNS TO SEE ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FCSTD LOW THAT WILL CROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE STRAITS MONDAY NIGHT.

[wxman57]

This reminds me of TD10.

Yes, very much so. And what did we learn from that experience?

[fox13weather]

WOW. Tropical Storm Wind Gusts being forecasted for saint pete:
I'm sure the winds will be higher along floridas east coast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=151

Today: Isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. Northeast wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with a northeast wind between 16 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Northeast wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Isolated showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a northeast wind between 21 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 20 to 23 mph decreasing to between 11 and 14 mph. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Nothing unusual here. It is often windy in October when there is a huge high over New England and general low pressure east and southeast of us. (pressure gradient) It does not mean that a tropical system is heading our way.

[TampaFl]

Nice close up sat/radar loop off Southeast Florida Coast courtesy of Collage of DuPage:


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radmaster.pl?Carribbean


(Just click visible satallite animatiom upper right hand corner).

[Portastorm]

This reminds me of TD10.

Yes, very much so. And what did we learn from that experience?

Some of us learned that we spent a ridiculous amount of time following multiple vortices on satellite loops!

And some of us also learned that we would have been better off listening to the pro mets on this board instead of following the whims of certain unnamed computer models!

[Stratosphere747]

This reminds me of TD10.

Yes, very much so. And what did we learn from that experience?

That nobody has any patience....

Oh.. And the silly Texas vs. E of Beaumont was fun.

[Ed Mahmoud]

wxman57- GFS would appear to show dramatic reversal in shear (6Z run) near possible Gulf system of Louisiana about Friday. Although the gradient is rather sharp with the shear, and the low would have to be positioned right...

Too soon to tell, perhaps, in my petroleum engineering opinion (ie, amateur weather opinion)

Shear loop

Ed, the shear map you posted is for next Friday - after whatever develops is nearly inland. Of course the shear maps show low shear dead center in the middle of a large upper low. But the surface low would form east of the upper low in the higher shear environment where there's enhanced lifting.

One other thing, I've noticed you're always quite "pro-development", to put it mildly. The title of one of your threads about the storms (remnants of Lorenzo) moving inland along the TX coast yesterday/today is quite revealing: "If only there was a surface feature East of Tamaulipas". Careful about letting your desires to experience a TC influence your opinion of what might happen.

Hmmm, amateurs tell me I'm too hung up on climatology when I say nothing in last seven decades has hit Texas in October coming from direction of Florida in October so nothing coming here, and the Pro Met implies I wishcast.


If I wish for anything, it is another snow event for SE Texas in 2 months.


Off to church...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW. Tropical Storm Wind Gusts being forecasted for saint pete:
I'm sure the winds will be higher along floridas east coast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=151

Today: Isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. Northeast wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with a northeast wind between 16 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Isolated showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Northeast wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Isolated showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with a northeast wind between 21 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Scattered showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. East northeast wind 20 to 23 mph decreasing to between 11 and 14 mph. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Nothing unusual here. It is often windy in October when there is a huge high over New England and general low pressure east and southeast of us. (pressure gradient) It does not mean that a tropical system is heading our way.

Oh ok...thank you!