NHC too quick to name storms?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I do think that those were all indeed true tropical storms.

But I can understand why someone might feel some storms
were a waste.

As a stormchaser this year has sucked.
No real action except barry...which was a puny depression.
I want a real tropical storm hitting me. After all, there's no
fun in storm chasing if you don't get to experience it.
There's nothing better than sitting on the beach during a
tropical storm (I did this during Wilma it was so awesome).
The weather is Boring unless there is something to get
my Adrenaline going.
Hate to sound insensitive but I want some real action.

The major reason I love the tropical weather is the experience
of a good wild tropical storm.

Do you all think 96L will get upgraded in the post
season analysis? and also td 10?

[jinftl]

[quote="Tampa Bay Hurricane"]The major reason I love the tropical weather is the experience
of a good wild tropical storm.quote]


Maybe that's why it seems to some folks that some systems are getting named unneccessarily....we are up to 13 named systems now, but only a small portion of the people on this forum have had any direct experience with any of these storms...you would figure that out of 13, there would have been some more to talk about here in the U.S. than whether they should have all been named.

But the science is what it is...if the professionals determined the storms met the criteria, they were named and they were storms at that time.

I also think it is a bit dangerous when posters make the statement that storms are getting named to pad funding...there may be some readers who take on that cynical view and don't react to a storm warning....they'll write it off to over-hyping and 'padding the numbers'...this is not the message we want to be sending. And then we wonder why people don't adequately prepare...we need to make certain people react!!!

Why do i have a feeling that some in the 'padding the numbers' camp would be the first to cry that they were not adequately warned when a Cat 1 comes through and they got alot more than a breezy shower.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree with the naming of the 13 storms NHC named.

i personally think though that there were 2 storms nhc should
have named- that one Hurakan posted as 96L and
also TD 10 was a tropical storm cause when it was windy
over my house it was not a depression but tropical
storm like conditions coming off the gom...

but then again I do trust the NHC more than me...

Question for Pro Mets: Do you all think that td 10 or any other
system should be upgraded to a named storm in the post
season analysis?

[jinftl]

I agree with the naming of the 13 storms NHC named.

i personally think though that there were 2 storms nhc should
have named- that one Hurakan posted as 96L and
also TD 10 was a tropical storm cause when it was windy
over my house it was not a depression but tropical
storm like conditions coming off the gom...

Question for Pro Mets: Do you all think that td 10 or any other
system should be upgraded to a named storm in the post
season analysis?

Even as a TD, you could have seen 35 mph winds with higher gusts...stormy for sure....do you have any wind measurements that show sustained tropical storm force winds?

Excerpt from TD10 advisory...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COMING ONSHORE...DID NOT STRENGTHEN...

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...IN A FEW SQUALLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Here it is:
TD 10 Produced Sustained Tropical Storm Force
winds over tampa bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2007

Temperature: 79.1 °F / 26.2 °C 83.9 °F / 28.8 °C 70.9 °F / 21.6 °C 75.2 °F / 24.0 °C
Dew Point: 64.5 °F / 18.1 °C 75.0 °F / 23.9 °C -99.9 °F / -73.3 °C 70.6 °F / 21.5 °C
Humidity: 61% 99% 69% 89%
Wind Speed: 24.0mph / 38.6km/h / 41.0mph / 66.0km/h - 14.0mph / 22.6km/h
Wind Gust: 25.0mph / 40.2km/h / 45.0mph / 72.4km/h - -
Wind: ENE - - ESE
Pressure: 30.12in / 1019.9hPa 29.81in / 1009.4hPa 29.71in / 1006.0hPa -
Precipitation: 0.14in / 3.6mm

[DanKellFla]

Maybe the source of the "padding" is the naming of sub-tropical storms as well as tropical storms?

[Cookiely]

Could it simply be that our technology is getting better and thus the naming of storms that would not have been named in the past?

[Derek Ortt]

no real action in the USA you ask?

Well... we only had a tropical storm rapidly intensifying over the center of OKLAHOMA!! Left 25 percent of the state under water. Had a hurricane cause a couple hundred million dollars worth of damage in Texas. Also had a few other tropical storms strike land.

Yeah, the USA has had no action

[Jimsot]

Maybe the 'criteria' needs to be changed, and I am looking at this from a public safety angle. These named 'storms' come through and are barely robust thunderstom events and people can become complacent and start second guessing the 'professionals'.

I mostly post on political chat sites but stay tuned into this place because I do live in the tropics. The NHC is government, and thus political, you can believe it or not, a forecast was made, they are going to try and make it, where there is government there is always politics and money involved somewhere. The behaviour of the staff recently with their boss a prime example. All their collective PHD's aside I take everything with a grain of salt, people are people, agendas and motives abound even when the 'welfare' of the populace is involved, just an opinion.

[RL3AO]

Change the criteria to what? Only name hurricanes? Only name storms that might affect land? If it has a warm core, sustained winds of 39 mph and a closed LLC it is a tropical storm. It is just now we have the technology to catch every tropical storm, even those that last a day (see Bret in 2005).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

no real action in the USA you ask?

Well... we only had a tropical storm rapidly intensifying over the center of OKLAHOMA!! Left 25 percent of the state under water. Had a hurricane cause a couple hundred million dollars worth of damage in Texas. Also had a few other tropical storms strike land.

Yeah, the USA has had no action

Derek I meant no real action where I live...
here in Tampa Bay...not other parts of the USA
except for barry.

I wasn't referring to texas...i know they had
too much intensity with humberto.

I probably sound like a selfish insensitive person but
what can I say- I love chasing big storms...
also I always hope nobody gets hurt...

[curtadams]

The strange thing about this complaint is that the NHC has had exactly the *opposite* problem this year. Humberto, Lorenzo, and Mellissa were all left as invests or TD for some time after satellite evidence clearly showed they merited upgrades. Nobody's going to complain about Mellissa except some scientists but delaying Humberto and Lorenzo's upgrades resulted in hurricanes hitting land with extremely short notice, even shorter than the rapid intensifications forced.

The NHC should have, and stick to, objective guidelines for naming a tropical storm. Upgrading storms like the ones mentioned is entirely proper and doesn't cause any trouble. Not following objective guidelines leads to problems, as with Humberto and Lorenzo, when the subjective criteria result in excessively short warnings.

[Jimsot]

The strange thing about this complaint is that the NHC has had exactly the *opposite* problem this year. Humberto, Lorenzo, and Mellissa were all left as invests or TD for some time after satellite evidence clearly showed they merited upgrades. Nobody's going to complain about Mellissa except some scientists but delaying Humberto and Lorenzo's upgrades resulted in hurricanes hitting land with extremely short notice, even shorter than the rapid intensifications forced.

The NHC should have, and stick to, objective guidelines for naming a tropical storm. Upgrading storms like the ones mentioned is entirely proper and doesn't cause any trouble. Not following objective guidelines leads to problems, as with Humberto and Lorenzo, when the subjective criteria result in excessively short warnings.

I would readily admit that I wouldn't want to be the one making these calls, its a tough position to be in. And I do agree that some storms where named to fast and some to slow well at least in the eyes of the members of this board, I haven't personally read anything where the public at large was unhappy. It just seems to me that naming these sheared and hybrid systems with convection far from the center with the possibility of having little or no effect on the people it is supposed to affect creates confusion about what a tropical storm nearing hurricane strenght can do, people mostly go by what they have personally experienced. Objective guidelines make sense as a non met I don't know what can or should be changed.

[Category 5]

Oh please, I knew one of these threads was coming.

The Hurricane Center is not bias. If it meets the guidelines for a tropical storm, they name it, end of story. The only thing being wasted here is Storm2k's bandwidth.

I have noticed a tendency to regard anything that is not a hurricane approaching the Conus as a waste of time.

And I agree with that statement 100%

[WindRunner]

Here it is:
TD 10 Produced Sustained Tropical Storm Force
winds over tampa bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2007

Temperature: 79.1 °F / 26.2 °C 83.9 °F / 28.8 °C 70.9 °F / 21.6 °C 75.2 °F / 24.0 °C
Dew Point: 64.5 °F / 18.1 °C 75.0 °F / 23.9 °C -99.9 °F / -73.3 °C 70.6 °F / 21.5 °C
Humidity: 61% 99% 69% 89%
Wind Speed: 24.0mph / 38.6km/h / 41.0mph / 66.0km/h - 14.0mph / 22.6km/h
Wind Gust: 25.0mph / 40.2km/h / 45.0mph / 72.4km/h - -
Wind: ENE - - ESE
Pressure: 30.12in / 1019.9hPa 29.81in / 1009.4hPa 29.71in / 1006.0hPa -
Precipitation: 0.14in / 3.6mm

Yes, an extratropical precursor to TD10 did produce gale winds over Tampa. But, from the graphs on that page, that wind was recorded around 5pm - a full 18 hours before NHC initiated advisories as a subtropical depression. Hence it's perfectly reasonable to assume that the gale force winds from an extratropical low briefly affected Tampa Bay before becoming tropical and that the NHC was correct in their decision.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Here it is:
TD 10 Produced Sustained Tropical Storm Force
winds over tampa bay:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2007

Temperature: 79.1 °F / 26.2 °C 83.9 °F / 28.8 °C 70.9 °F / 21.6 °C 75.2 °F / 24.0 °C
Dew Point: 64.5 °F / 18.1 °C 75.0 °F / 23.9 °C -99.9 °F / -73.3 °C 70.6 °F / 21.5 °C
Humidity: 61% 99% 69% 89%
Wind Speed: 24.0mph / 38.6km/h / 41.0mph / 66.0km/h - 14.0mph / 22.6km/h
Wind Gust: 25.0mph / 40.2km/h / 45.0mph / 72.4km/h - -
Wind: ENE - - ESE
Pressure: 30.12in / 1019.9hPa 29.81in / 1009.4hPa 29.71in / 1006.0hPa -
Precipitation: 0.14in / 3.6mm

Yes, an extratropical precursor to TD10 did produce gale winds over Tampa. But, from the graphs on that page, that wind was recorded around 5pm - a full 18 hours before NHC initiated advisories as a subtropical depression. Hence it's perfectly reasonable to assume that the gale force winds from an extratropical low briefly affected Tampa Bay before becoming tropical and that the NHC was correct in their decision.

Good point...thank you...

[Alacane2]

I agree with the naming of the 13 storms NHC named.

i personally think though that there were 2 storms nhc should
have named- that one Hurakan posted as 96L and
also TD 10 was a tropical storm cause when it was windy
over my house it was not a depression but tropical
storm like conditions coming off the gom...

Question for Pro Mets: Do you all think that td 10 or any other
system should be upgraded to a named storm in the post
season analysis?

Even as a TD, you could have seen 35 mph winds with higher gusts...stormy for sure....do you have any wind measurements that show sustained tropical storm force winds?

Excerpt from TD10 advisory...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COMING ONSHORE...DID NOT STRENGTHEN...

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...IN A FEW SQUALLS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

THE BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED...WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS INCREASED...
ALBEIT MODESTLY. ADDITIONAL SATELLITE...BUOY...AND RECONNAISSANCE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A SINGLE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXISTS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS SEPARATING FROM THE UPPER-LOW.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW JUDGED TO BE
TROPICAL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.
EARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
SUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH
DROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND. IN ANY
EVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We will find out in the post season analysis whether
NHC decides to upgrade td 10...

also should note that when the tropical storm force
winds were over florida it was an extratropical Gale
storm as someone pointed out earlier...

[Steve]

>>I believe that the NHC has been too quick to name some of the storms this year. Could they be naming some storms that shouldn't be named just to pad the numbers? I feel that Andrea, Chantel, Erin, Ingrid, and Jerry should not have been named. Those names were just wasted. What do you think?

Putting it nicely, I think the premise is suspect. I also don't believe that you should have started the thread without basing it on specificially why each of those storms should not have been classified rather than speculating there was a numbers padding game going on. I also think that the administration should bring back the thread rating feature to where if enough posters down-rate a thread, it would autodelete or something. Nothing personal, btw, just find this thread probably more wasted than the names and certainly more wasted than I am right now.

Steve

[Tstormwatcher]

Here is your analysis Steve.
Andrea - never became tropical so why name it?
Chantal - became a minimal storm On July 31, later that day it became extratropical, again why name it?
Ingred - became a minimal storm sept. 14 downgraded on the 15th, died on the 17th.
Jerry - became tropical sept 24, weakend a few hours later, strenghtened hours later then was gone by the end of the day.

Thats four examples, I take back Erin because it was so close to land, as to why I feel these storms should not have been named.
I feel that if far enough from land that a storm should hold on to its tropical storm characteristics for at least 36 hours before being given a name.