Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The High Winds have actually been due to The High

Wind Advisory:


Issued at: 8:26 AM EDT 9/30/07, expires at: 7:00 PM EDT 9/30/07

wind advisory remains in effect until 7 pm edt this evening
A wind advisory remains in effect until 7 pm edt this evening.
A strengthening high pressure center over new england will produce strong northeast winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
A wind advisory means that sustained winds of 25 to 39 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Boating on inland lakes and the intracoastal waters will be very dangerous.

That is one strong High Pressure ridge.
But typical in October.

[rockyman]

ABC 33/40's take on this system:

http://www.alabamawx.com

[Chacor]

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BAHAMA ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

90L soon perhaps?

[cycloneye]

RL3AO,How would you put this TWO for this area in your blue,red.yellow,orange graphic?

[cpdaman]

http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/zoo001.jpg

pic from first high tide in this northeast cycle, tides up to the "tree line" in jupiter. could be a bit more overwash/minor flooding tonite near midnite.

[RL3AO]

[Steve]

>>I have many times made the big mistake of letting my desire
to experience a tropical storm influence my science and bias it.

Here's an idea: buy a car and drive to see one. It's fairly easy to do.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

>>I have many times made the big mistake of letting my desire
to experience a tropical storm influence my science and bias it.

Here's an idea: buy a car and drive to see one. It's fairly easy to do.

lol i don't have enough money to make a drive.
I don't even have a car. use my parents sometimes.

[Derek Ortt]

trust me... you do NOT want to experience anything other than a storm.

You seem like an enthusiastic teen-ager, Tampa Bay. I was that several years ago. Your first hurricane will snap you straight faster than a drill sargeant

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

trust me... you do NOT want to experience anything other than a storm.

You seem like an enthusiastic teen-ager, Tampa Bay. I was that several years ago. Your first hurricane will snap you straight faster than a drill sargeant

I do Not want to experience anything more than a weak
tropical storm. If a hurricane comes to me I will be pretty scared
because a hurricane is much scarier than a weak TS.

I do not want damage the damage would be horrible..

My only "complaint" about barry was that it was a td instead of
the 40-50 mph TS I was hoping to capture on video...that's all...
If anything threatens that is stronger than 50 mph I would say
don't hit me...but if its less than hit me...

Now if barry had bombed to a hurricane then I would say
oh snap I'm getting out of here...

With Charley I was almost crying because if it hit tampa bay
it would have destroyed everything I have.

[cycloneye]

Ok,lets return to the theme in hand,the Bahamas,Gulf of Mexico possible development in comming days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where is the low pressure in the bahamas forming guys?
I see one rotation near miami, but the heavy
convection is 500 miles east?

[Sanibel]

We have a strong steady 20KT straight-line wind from the NE. This is a fall-type wind and not tropical. The swirl east of Miami is an upper level Low. This could still center in the Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We have a strong steady 20KT straight-line wind from the NE. This is a fall-type wind and not tropical. The swirl east of Miami is an upper level Low. This could still center in the Caribbean.

So the models are trying to bring this ULL to the surface? Just wondering

[Sanibel]

Not really sure. Karen could even reform if it was given the right conditions.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

From the infrared I posted above it appears a second
more potent low is forming furhter east
near the heaviest convection...Notice
the Semi-Circle Shape of that area of convection...

I also read on Masters blog's commentary that
Steve Lyons said a surface low would form further
east of the ULL, which is enhancing convection...
and I think that is what is happening...

[hurricanetrack]

trust me... you do NOT want to experience anything other than a storm.

You seem like an enthusiastic teen-ager, Tampa Bay. I was that several years ago. Your first hurricane will snap you straight faster than a drill sargeant

This is an interesting topic- one for another thread entirely, but I obviously disagree. Of course, it all depends on how you look at it. A hurricane that you go to that is not affecting where you live is one thing- having one roll up your city is another. I have experienced both and quite frankly can't ever get enough of the action. I do not know what it is, but hurricanes draw me from a raw power perspective that cannot be explained. I like to observe and measure them when they hit. It's not enough for me to just stand in the wind (I actually don't do that) I have to know what the power is and I use the best instruments to do so. I have a deep respect for hurricanes but am not scared of them- even Charley, which at the time did scare me, was spectacular to witness in person. But to be able to know what the wind speeds were and the air pressure was right where I was made it worth while. It's like being on another planet.

I feel like you have to know what you're dealing with and understand that it is not fun and games- it is deadly serious. We might make it look easy but it's not. There are so many things to have to watch for that can take you out (not just the hurricane- but people too) and the sleeplessness works against you as well. Anyhow, this would make for a great separate thread later down the road since so few people actually talk openly about why they wish to be a in a hurricane or tropical storm. Some people get very upset about it and think that people like me and those I work with are insane. I think that being a police officer is more dangerous than what I do- hurricanes don't shoot at me and I can see them on radar. Try that with your average social deviant. I'll pick this topic up on Talkin' Tropics later on....could be quite interesting to see what people say.

[ROCK]

wxman57- GFS would appear to show dramatic reversal in shear (6Z run) near possible Gulf system of Louisiana about Friday. Although the gradient is rather sharp with the shear, and the low would have to be positioned right...

Too soon to tell, perhaps, in my petroleum engineering opinion (ie, amateur weather opinion)

Shear loop

Ed, the shear map you posted is for next Friday - after whatever develops is nearly inland. Of course the shear maps show low shear dead center in the middle of a large upper low. But the surface low would form east of the upper low in the higher shear environment where there's enhanced lifting.

One other thing, I've noticed you're always quite "pro-development", to put it mildly. The title of one of your threads about the storms (remnants of Lorenzo) moving inland along the TX coast yesterday/today is quite revealing: "If only there was a surface feature East of Tamaulipas". Careful about letting your desires to experience a TC influence your opinion of what might happen.

Hmmm, amateurs tell me I'm too hung up on climatology when I say nothing in last seven decades has hit Texas in October coming from direction of Florida in October so nothing coming here, and the Pro Met implies I wishcast.


If I wish for anything, it is another snow event for SE Texas in 2 months.


Off to church...

I am one of those amateurs Ed....... Actually, I have always thought of you as anti- development.....

[RL3AO]

I guess I should actually follow this system. I guess Humberto showed us that if something can get in the GOM it can and most likely will strengthen. This could be a serious threat. It depends how far south it goes?