Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope they start running the tropical models on the most likely spot for development today.

Still smarting about being called a wishcaster by a pro-met, but I, as an amateur, questioned whether shear would be as hostile as he opined for the entire duration in the Gulf, and, BTW, that 6Z GFS shear at 120 showed low shear under a developing anticyclone, not low shear with the ULL. I see it happen in my office, when a field person questions a decision by one of the engineers, the engineers start making comments like "where did he get his degree, again?"


But that is why this place is so cool. Where else can pros and interested observers/amateurs discuss, and occasionally debate. Doesn't happen too often, but it is interesting to see the rare occassions when pro-mets disagree. I have seen it happen, though it is fairly rare.


Can you imagine an NFL blog where players and coaches talk before and after the game? Imagine questioning the head coach before the game on the starting lineup, or after the game why he went for it on 4th and 2 near midfield with a 3 point lead? Or questioning the QB after the game how he didn't recognize the corner blitz on a crucial play. I don't know what the NFL equivalent of -removed- is (Monday Morning QB?), but you might get called that and worse.


Like I said, this place is cool.

[punkyg]

I don't know if any one posted this, but looky!

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12

HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 29.8N 71.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.09.2007 23.0N 74.1W WEAK

00UTC 01.10.2007 23.5N 75.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 01.10.2007 24.5N 77.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2007 23.2N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2007 23.3N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2007 23.0N 85.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.10.2007 24.2N 87.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.10.2007 25.0N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.10.2007 26.0N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.10.2007 27.4N 93.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2007 28.6N 95.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.10.2007 30.0N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.10.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt
12z UKMET goes to the Central Texas coast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know if any one posted this, but looky!

The eeety-beety teensy weenie little swirl West of the storms? I'm not sure that is big enough to last.

It is a tight little swirl, though.

[jlauderdal]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12

HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 29.8N 71.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.09.2007 23.0N 74.1W WEAK

00UTC 01.10.2007 23.5N 75.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 01.10.2007 24.5N 77.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2007 23.2N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2007 23.3N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2007 23.0N 85.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.10.2007 24.2N 87.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.10.2007 25.0N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.10.2007 26.0N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.10.2007 27.4N 93.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2007 28.6N 95.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.10.2007 30.0N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.10.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt
12z UKMET goes to the Central Texas coast.

those numbers arent very impressive but as we know until we get something to actually develop models are well lets just say less than reliable and that is being generous but for all the model watchers they have something to discuss.

[perk]

Latest from Jeff Master's blog:

Bahamas tropical disturbance
A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.

This analysis is totally opposite from one posted here by another pro-met, espescially the shear forecast.

[Steve]

>>I have been telling people on a local board that there is no magic cut off date for the GOM to "close for business" and while this is not the norm for us, it can happen.

There are only generalities. Summer was kind of late arriving here in Dixie, so I think that the Western Gulf (TX/MeX) is still in the game regardless of whether or not it usually is by early October. Summer in South Central LA arrived from highs coming down from the north and northeast. I wonder how it is we get to the actual Fall season. Certainly storms such as Juan and Opal in the past have helped to usher in seasonal pattern changes, so it could come from the tropics.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Perk, a TPC Pro-met by the initials LL agrees with wxman57 and disagrees with Dr. Masters.

Relevant part of MWD

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
FRIDAY. THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF 90W.
.

[perk]

Perk, a TPC Pro-met by the initials LL agrees with wxman57 and disagrees with Dr. Masters.

Relevant part of MWD

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
FRIDAY. THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF 90W.
.

And you wonder why us amateurs get confused. How can we not when there's opposing views from the pro-mets.

[Ed Mahmoud]

In favor of believing climatology, just gotta say in seven decades (there are examples earlier, however) no hurricane has hit Texas from the East, there were 2, and they came from the South.


Now, USF beating WVU at home isn't a shocka. But Texas losing at home, even though I did think they were over-rated, Florida losing at home, Oklahoma losing to a Colorado that was pathetic last season, well, to mix metaphors between sports and science, sometimes the seemingly impossible happens.


But I still would bet money that TC season in Texas is over.

[Steve]

>>And you wonder why us amateurs get confused. How can we not when there's opposing views from the pro-mets.

That's like Frank2 defending "the other position" so people don't get scared at threads. You know the old line about leading a horse to water... Anyway, don't get confused. It's okay for scientists to have differing opinions. Eventually you'll come to the conclusion that everyone blows forecasts some of the time, and that there is no immediate right or wrong 6 days out. You just have to observe what plays out. Not to be pro-development, because I don't know, but it would seem to me that the conditions will be improving. You can already see the trough split in process out in front:

(Animate to 30 and speed up):

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Now things certainly depend on whether a surface low forms in the wake of that split or if it is part of an upper system. We wait.

Steve

[BigA]

The CMC and NOGAPS predict that shear will be
fairly favorable in the Gulf of Mexico within 3 days. The GFS is less so, but there are still some areas in the Gulf that would be favorable if the GFS came to fruition.

[Steve]

>>But I still would bet money that TC season in Texas is over.

How much cash were you looking to lay down based on seven decades? And what odds are you laying?



Steve

[El Nino]

Not a strong storm but the end of the run is showing other development between Hispanola and Cuba.

[BigA]

Not a strong storm but the end of the run is showing other development between Hispanola and Cuba.

I think that's the model's take on a resurrected Karen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>But I still would bet money that TC season in Texas is over.

How much cash were you looking to lay down based on seven decades? And what odds are you laying?



Steve

$10 dollars, straight up. You got the UK Met on your side, I have seven decades of history on mine.

I'll let you have a Louisiana landfall, like Rita, if, like Rita, somewhere in Texas sustained 1 minute winds equal or exceed 64 knots. Ditto Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

aaahhhhh.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Perk, a TPC Pro-met by the initials LL agrees with wxman57 and disagrees with Dr. Masters.

Relevant part of MWD

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
FRIDAY. THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF 90W.
.

I suspect LL is Lawrence Lahiff, PhD
(looked at TPC staff page)

[ROCK]

>>But I still would bet money that TC season in Texas is over.

How much cash were you looking to lay down based on seven decades? And what odds are you laying?



Steve

$10 dollars, straight up. You got the UK Met on your side, I have seven decades of history on mine.

I'll let you have a Louisiana landfall, like Rita, if, like Rita, somewhere in Texas sustained 1 minute winds equal or exceed 64 knots. Ditto Mexico.

Ed, I am guessing WX57 calling you a pro-developer ruffled your feathers some.... But its all good I have been called a lot worse during my 3 years here.....no big deal really.....as far as you hugging climo, I tend to believe climo is changing every year, precedence are set, trends appear. So to say TX or the GOM is closed for business really doesn't hold water until the first good front and the westliers kick in........jmo

[ROCK]

Perk, a TPC Pro-met by the initials LL agrees with wxman57 and disagrees with Dr. Masters.

Relevant part of MWD

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
FRIDAY. THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF 90W.
.

I suspect LL is Lawrence Lahiff, PhD
(looked at TPC staff page)

Yes, he is and so is Masters.....I am not willing to hang my hat on one local discussion. Are you?