Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[rockyman]

as far as you hugging climo, I tend to believe climo is changing every year, precedence are set, trends appear. So to say TX or the GOM is closed for business really doesn't hold water until the first good front and the westliers kick in........jmo

Great point, ROCK...I think with climo, we need to ask ourselves "What NORMALLY happens at this time of year that makes a specific event more or less likely to occur"...then ask ourselves "Has this event happened THIS YEAR?" If the answer to the second question is "no," then climo is pretty much worthless (hurricanes have no "idea" what time of year it is)

[JonathanBelles]

as far as you hugging climo, I tend to believe climo is changing every year, precedence are set, trends appear. So to say TX or the GOM is closed for business really doesn't hold water until the first good front and the westliers kick in........jmo

Great point, ROCK...I think with climo, we need to ask ourselves "What NORMALLY happens at this time of year that makes a specific event more or less likely to occur"...then ask ourselves "Has this event happened THIS YEAR?" If the answer to the second question is "no," then climo is pretty much worthless (hurricanes have no "idea" what time of year it is)

That normal is becoming less normal. I dont look at climo on the small picture too much, but I do look at it on the big picture.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, we won't know until we know.


BTW and OT, 35 mph sustained winds at KC area NASCAR race. Radar shows approaching front will cause rain delay, but the front is moving quickly.

[cycloneye]

[Steve]

>>$10 dollars, straight up. You got the UK Met on your side, I have seven decades of history on mine. I'll let you have a Louisiana landfall, like Rita, if, like Rita, somewhere in Texas sustained 1 minute winds equal or exceed 64 knots. Ditto Mexico.

hahaha No dice. I'm not betting against history straight up. If you would have given me 70-1 ( ) or probably even 4-1, I would have taken that bet.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Teeny swirl moving to WSW per visible loop.

[perk]

>>But I still would bet money that TC season in Texas is over.

How much cash were you looking to lay down based on seven decades? And what odds are you laying?



Steve

$10 dollars, straight up. You got the UK Met on your side, I have seven decades of history on mine.

I'll let you have a Louisiana landfall, like Rita, if, like Rita, somewhere in Texas sustained 1 minute winds equal or exceed 64 knots. Ditto Mexico.

Ed, I am guessing WX57 calling you a pro-developer ruffled your feathers some.... But its all good I have been called a lot worse during my 3 years here.....no big deal really.....as far as you hugging climo, I tend to believe climo is changing every year, precedence are set, trends appear. So to say TX or the GOM is closed for business really doesn't hold water until the first good front and the westliers kick in........jmo

And Ed i started my climo post with no disrespect intended, and i meant that.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

Nogaps also tracks to Central Texas Coast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Semi-OT, but thread for this has been locked. I like Joe Bastardi, and I pay for his services. But why is he upset NHC named Melissa? Now that they've downgraded, he is piling on them again. It looked good on the satellite, and it seems whether or not they'll ever effect the the US, as the WMO RSMC, if its a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, NHC needs to name it.

Back on topic, Bastardi seems to think something will hit Florida, named or not, with strong winds, and get into the Gulf, but he hasn't gone into the level of specificity he usually does. I guess because he'd rather complain about NHC tracking fish storms.

[CourierPR]

Do I detect a center developing near 25 north and 70 west?

[Steve]

>>But why is he upset NHC named Melissa? Now that they've downgraded, he is piling on them again. It looked good on the satellite, and it seems whether or not they'll ever effect the the US, as the WMO RSMC, if its a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, NHC needs to name it.

Accuwhiners.

As for the NOGAPS, one thing several models are showing is low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska which is a change from where we have been for a while (in the means of course).

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

And Ed i started my climo post with no disrespect intended, and i meant that.

No problem, for the last 10 days or so, when people start claiming Texas is at risk, I have mentioned climo. Probably at least once a day.

I just got cheesed based on a single thread that someone would claim I am always pro-development, and always -removed- a storm to my city.


If I did wishcast, it would be snow, but rarely do models even give a hint of that for my house. So it is hard to wishcast even if I wanted to. Not as much fun, is ice, and I do always perk up when I see thicknesses greater than 540 dm well North of HOU, with 850 mb freezing line much closer to the house. I did get to go into the office 2 hours late this past winter because of icing.


But I don't like cold weather. Odd, isn't it.


Hey, with UK Met and NOGAPS on his side, maybe Steve will reconsider even odds?

[BigA]

[quote="Steve
As for the NOGAPS, one thing several models are showing is low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska which is a change from where we have been for a while (in the means of course).

Steve[/quote]

Does this have to do with the arrival of fall and a portent to the beginning of the westerlies that would steer NW caribbean or Gulf storms toward Florida and away from Texas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Semi-OT, but thread for this has been locked. I like Joe Bastardi, and I pay for his services. But why is he upset NHC named Melissa? Now that they've downgraded, he is piling on them again. It looked good on the satellite, and it seems whether or not they'll ever effect the the US, as the WMO RSMC, if its a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, NHC needs to name it.

Back on topic, Bastardi seems to think something will hit Florida, named or not, with strong winds, and get into the Gulf, but he hasn't gone into the level of specificity he usually does. I guess because he'd rather complain about NHC tracking fish storms.

I don't think he expects this storm to be named before reaching FL...and thus the reason he said "it would be a miracle [for this system to] be named before Wednesday". He obviously is thinking that the real action will come later on once it is in the GOM. You're right though about him not going into much detail. I am guessing that may be it is because it is the weekend? Hopefully his videos and posts tomorrow will give us much more insight.

[Pearl River]

Semi-OT, but thread for this has been locked. I like Joe Bastardi, and I pay for his services. But why is he upset NHC named Melissa? Now that they've downgraded, he is piling on them again. It looked good on the satellite, and it seems whether or not they'll ever effect the the US, as the WMO RSMC, if its a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin, NHC needs to name it.

Back on topic, Bastardi seems to think something will hit Florida, named or not, with strong winds, and get into the Gulf, but he hasn't gone into the level of specificity he usually does. I guess because he'd rather complain about NHC tracking fish storms.

What he is saying, is that the NHC is quick to name a storm over the open Atlantic with only satellite to look at, but wait for recon to go into a system in the GOM/BOC or close in, when there is also surface data to confirm a system needs to be upgraded.

[chadtm80]

Maybe he is just upset that the NHC beat him to naming something

[bwhorton2007]

there is a good rotation in southern bahamas kind of elongated right now needs to tighten up to strengthen.
Invest needed for this swirl in my opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What he is saying, is that the NHC is quick to name a storm over the open Atlantic with only satellite to look at, but wait for recon to go into a system in the GOM/BOC or close in, when there is also surface data to confirm a system needs to be upgraded.

Well, one can argue NHC was a little slow upgrading what became Humberto. But the fact remains, aircraft can't fly missions that far out, and they can fly missions in closer, and, all else being equal, unless there was a good chance of a threat of TS winds on land anywhere within 36 hours, if an aircraft can confirm a TC before its upgraded to a TC, unless the satellite or surface observation are so conclusively overwhelmingly proof of a TC, waiting 6 hours for an aircraft to arrive doesn't seem so bad to me.

I suppose, just to be safe, if I ran things, an AC that could be cancelled in the morning might be tasked to fly a mission in the afternoon off Florida, but between buoys, radar, satellite, and obs from the Bahamas, I'd think they'd be able to spot a quicker than expected development.

And I have seen 'resource permitting' missions on just a few hours notice when things got going faster than expected.


Off to Wal-Mart opthamologist.

[ROCK]

there is a good rotation in southern bahamas kind of elongated right now needs to tighten up to strengthen.
Invest needed for this swirl in my opinion.

still that low level swirl seen moving southwest......if it persists overnight I think an INVEST tag will be warranted......

[Steve]

>>Does this have to do with the arrival of fall and a portent to the beginning of the westerlies that would steer NW caribbean or Gulf storms toward Florida and away from Texas?

Could be, but it would still be a week or so out. And it doesn't preclude an indian summer in middle October, so a pattern isn't necessarily going to lock in or anything. Long Range GFS does drop a pretty deep, sweeping trough through the country but then builds ridging back into the SE US. One would assume things would be a bit cooler by the 16th, but it also shows a tropical system off the SE Coast from the SE.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve