Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

H+150

ex-karen over central bahamas..Hard to discern but it's there...The pattern this week would favor a mostly west motion..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[BigA]

Hows the wind shear over ex karen.

There is still shear, but its slowly waning. (at least according to the Wisconsin maps) The really bad shear looks like it has split in half, and ex Karen is in an area of about 20kt shear. Most of the models seem to predict that shear will continue to lessen as ex-Karen moves NW, and the TWO mentions this possibility.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

[canegrl04]

Wow! It appears that Karen will come back from the dead this week. Stayed tuned,folks

[emeraldislencguy]

It does look better tonight that ina long time--what are some opinions that it may come back from the dead??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

the nhc discussion did say that while conditions are not
favorable now that they are expected to become more
favorable and perhaps be conducive to tropical
storm formation...as for path it is hard to tell
whether it is going to go in the caribbean or north of the
caribbean sea--- but it looks like
heavy rain and gusty winds will occur on all the islands
including puerto rico on its current motion.

[BigA]

The next two days may be critical for any potential for redevelopment. Ex-Karen has maintained impressive persistant convection, and the slow decrease in shear (which has already begun today, with the shear falling from about 30 to 20kts) may allow redevelopment.

[Gustywind]

Convection seems always persistents and better by hour steadily ...looking for wet weather conditions for the next 24h 48h ....
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

[BigA]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_00.gif Shear from earlier today

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_24.gif 24 hr shear forecast

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif 48 hrs

Note the rapidly dying shear near where ex-Karen is

Also note that shear maps can be notoriously unpredictable.

[Gustywind]

Latest 10 pm http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/s ... Tagant.jpg
There's a sort a wall of convection moving always west with convection further south expanding at Barbados latittude... something to wacth in terms of showers and thunderstorm activity for the islands... like Puerto Rico mentionned in their last forecasts
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010111
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2007

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THAT PRODUCED ACTIVE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER
THRU MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF LOCAL AREA COMBINED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF KAREN WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL INSTABILITY AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST ARE NEAR SATURATION DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE TO BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF URBAN FLOODING AND AT TIMES FLASH FLOODING. LATEST SOUNDING LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND VARY UNSTABLE. GFS SHOWS WET PATTERN PERSISTING THRU TUESDAY WITH LESS MOISTURE WEDNESDAY THRU
REMAINDER OF WEEK. HOWEVER...WE MUST KEEP IN MIND OCTOBER IS ONE
OF THE RAINIEST MONTHS LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR TIST AND
TISX WHERE TEMPO CEILINGS AND VIS MAY LOWER DUE TO NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF
KAREN AND MEAN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE E
CARIBBEAN START TO HOOK UP UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING E OF THE
AREA TO CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TISX/TIST
STARTING AS EARLY AS 15Z LASTING ALL DAY.

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD
WEAKEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Vortex]

Amazing what a reduction in shear will do..Karen back by Tuesday??


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Sanibel]

The convection is holding longer with Karen than Ingrid. It is also staying in one spot meaning it isn't as much a shear feature as was Ingrid's. I'm not seeing any serious signs of better conditions, but this one is hanging tougher.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM at 84+

We'll see..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[BigA]

Amazing what a reduction in shear will do..Karen back by Tuesday??


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

The link doesnt work, but I agree with the plausibility statement, especially if shear decreases as forecast.

[Sanibel]

Remnant surface swirl is moving along pretty fast now west. Very weak if not neutralized.

[BigA]

Remnant surface swirl is moving along pretty fast now west. Very weak if not neutralized.

I would imagine that anything that would redevelop would redevelop off the pulsing convection, gaining a new circulation, rather than the remenant circulation gaining convection.

Just my thoughts.

[AnnularCane]

I hope they put her back on the floater, at least. It's hard to keep track of her without a good closeup visible satellite.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is there a closed area of low pressure?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Puerto Rico satellite is a good closeup right now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html