WPAC: Typhoon KROSA

[CrazyC83]

One of two new WPAC invests. Looks pretty good at this point.

[WindRunner]

This really isn't near Okinawa . . . more like east of the Philippines . . .

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looking pretty tasty at the moment. The models are developing this one aggressively, including ECMWF which slams it into Taiwan in about 144hrs. Definitely one to keep a close eye on.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Now classed as FAIR by JTWC. This seems to be consolodating quite nicely. Latest UK Met run takes this slap bang into central Taiwan as an "INTENSE" system.

[*]EDIT[*]

JMA are now issuing warnings for this system, expected to be a 40kts TS withing 24hrs:

WTPQ21 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 17.2N 130.4E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 18.2N 129.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Here's the prognostic reasoning:

WTPQ31 RJTD 010600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 17.2N 130.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST .
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

ECM really going like the clappers for this one and take this into southern Taiwan, similar to supertyphoon Bilis back in 2000.

[Typhoon Hunter]

TCFA now issued by JTWC. Here's what they have to say:

WTPN21 PGTW 010830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8N 130.3E TO 18.6N 128.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 010600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 130.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
130.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS CONVECTION
CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC ON A 010436Z AMSU MICROWAVE
PASS. A 010214Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A TIGHT LLCC WITH WINDS NEAR
35 KTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION, AND WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AT THE CENTER OF THE DIST-
URBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW 200 MB RIDGE AXIS
IS BEGINNING TO EXTEND OVER THE LLCC, LOWERING VALUES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE DISTURBANCE ALSO HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 020830Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

PAGASA have named it Ineng.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone ALERT: Tropical Depression "INENG"
Issued at 12:00 NN, Monday, 01 October 2007 The low pressure area East of Northern Luzon has developed into a tropical depression and was named "INENG".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 AM) 730 kms East of Northern Luzon
Coordinates: 17.2°N, 130.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: almost stationary
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tuesday morning:
725 kms East of Northern Luzon
Wednesday morning:
720 kms East of Northern Luzon
Thursday morning:
715 kms East of Northern Luzon


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


This disturbance is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

However, it will continue to enhance the Southwest monsoon and bring rains over the country particularly the western sections.

Residents in low lying-areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. tonight.

[Chacor]

And as of 06Z, PAGASA upgraded it:

WTPH20 RPMM 010600
T T T GALE WARNING 02
AT 0600 01OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS
ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT
THREE
NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO REMAIN
ALMOST
STATIONARY ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO
KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE
NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER
SECONDS NEAR CENTER
ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS
RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 ONE SEVEN POINT
ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 030600 ONE SIX POINT
NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 040600 ONE SEVEN
POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS
WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT
TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA=

[alan1961]

http://199.9.2.143/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi? ... &SIZE=full

yes looking good this one.(ineng 91W)

[Chacor]

17W.NONAME on NRL.

Trying to emulate Lekima in the deep convection department:

[Chacor]

TD 17W.

[CrazyC83]

Forecasting big things out of Krosa-to-be it seems!

[CrazyC83]

It's no longer Invest 91W, but rather TD 17W.

[Chacor]

It's no longer Invest 91W, but rather TD 17W.

You're the thread starter, you can change the topic.

[CrazyC83]

Now upgraded to a tropical storm by the JTWC (35 kt).

[Coredesat]

Best-looking TS (well, officially a TD) I've ever seen.

[Cyclenall]

It looks like a typhoon right now.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like a typhoon right now.

At least a solid TS. The JMA should upgrade it at the next advisory.

[Coredesat]

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0715 KROSA (0715) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 17.1N 130.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 17.7N 130.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 19.4N 128.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 21.4N 127.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[CrazyC83]

Now Krosa as expected. I wonder what the JTWC will bring it to...

[Chacor]