SW Carribean

[Vortex]

This morning's visible satellite indicates very favorable conditions over the SW carribean. In fact, the GFS indicates development the next few days over the SW carribean and moving slowly north...The monsoon trough has lifted north and a tropical wave entering the central carribean will provide additional heat/energy to the region. This is the time of year we focus on this region and the player's are beginning to arrive..

[Vortex]

GFS H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS H+54

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS H+54

200MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72

200 MB

Very favorable over the NW carribean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[BigA]

The GFS Shear map looks to be kicking down shear in the NW Caribbean after about 60 hours, so anything moving north would not necessarily get shredded. It is that time of year(for the next four weeks) for those type of storms.

[Wx_Warrior]

dissipates at 84h

[Cyclone1]

Definitely an area to watch in the coming days, but the GFS has been developing a few phantoms in this area recently.

[boca]

Developing area of convection north of Panama moving slowly northward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

This will likely get caught in the circulation around the ULL WSW of Key West.

[boca]

I'm surprised no one has posted on this area. This is what the NAM is picking up on even though the model is out to lunch sometimes I'm watching it.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html

[Sanibel]

Twist - 16.5N-74W South of Haiti in deep convection.

[hial2]

This is the general area from where the CMC spawns a hurricane to cross SFl and into the GOM in about 3 days...

[frederic79]

Good eyes, Sanibel. Zoom in and it's very obvious there's a mid to low level circulation just east of Jamaica. According to the latest 24 hour shear tendency map, this feature is under very light and decreasing upper level shear. If it moves westward it will soon encounter strong shear until it reaches the southern GOM where shear abates big-time. I wonder if this is the remnants and/or LLC associated with the former TS Karen. If it holds together, could be a real player down the road.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
Whats going on in the sw carribean.
the convection down there just looks sorta funny looking
you'll see it in the link i posted above
is this what the models are developing?

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
Whats going on in the sw carribean.
the convection down there just looks sorta funny looking
you'll see it in the link i posted above
is this what the models are developing?

Now that some serious convection! Dr. Lyons from TWC more interested in this area than 90L.