Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[caneman]

Am I allowed to say told you so to a MET
Couple buoys now reporting 40 Mph winds and 45 mph gusts! Why no STDS or invest? Outlook also said ULL was dissipating.

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is why they (The NHC) use several models for their forecasts. And the cmc has shown some interesting results he he, at other times it has been closer to being correct.

[ronjon]

Caneman, I would classify it as extratropical since there is no convection around the center, is cold core, and was spawned by the UL divergence. However, it is low pressure and could slowly make the transition to tropical over the GOM in 2-3 days. Looks like it will likely cross S FL over the next 24 hrs.

[Cyclone1]

Am I allowed to say told you so to a MET
Couple buoys now reporting 40 Mph winds and 45 mph gusts! Why no STDS or invest? Outlook also said ULL was dissipating.

I'd say an invest should be tagged today.

[HURAKAN]

C 1800 25.01 -80.38 126 217 30 37 41

Station MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL
25.01 N 80.38 W (25°00'36" N 80°22'48" W)
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1

WOW!!!

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z NOGAPs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2007093012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Derek Ortt]

that's yesterday's NOGAPS

[MiamiensisWx]

Winds are lower at the surrounding offshore stations per recent obs off SE FL and the Keys. The higher winds at Molasses Reef are associated with TSRA (convection and thunderstorms) moving through the area, so those obs are unrepresentative of surrounding conditions. Look at the recent frames on the Miami radar loop - ignore the "radar not available" message at the end. Here's the alternative Key West radar - it is finally operational!

[ronjon]

Correct Derek on the NOGAPs - gotta check that date stamp. Pressure is falling rapidly at Settlement Point, Fowey Rocks and Lake Worth stations. Pressure is down some 5-6 mbs over the last 24 hrs.

[JonathanBelles]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-020100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
241 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHEAST
TO THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN SOME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DRAW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL HELP TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE PRESENT
TIME THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION
INCREASING WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS...VISITORS...AND MARINERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES AND OR WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

$$

JCM

[Windsurfer_NYC]

09L.INVEST on NRL... http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

Go to Active storms forum for discussions on newly invest 90L.