INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[jasons2k]

I think we need a few more days before we can definitively know what will become of 90L. This is not a cut n' dry setup. I think calls either way are premature at this point. It's too early to know exactly what we'll be looking at by Wed-Thur, if anything.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007

TWO BIG ISSUES IN THE FORECAST LOOM (UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS). FIRST
IS POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL/HYBRID DEVELOPMENT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF AS THE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA WEAKENS AND FRACTURES
ALLOWING TROUGHINESS TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A SURFACE
REFLECTION SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST SHOULD DEVELOP AS IT MOVES
WEST...BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF LOOKS MORE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. THE FACTOR THAT MAY INHIBIT EXCESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF ABUNDANT CARIBBEAN MOISTURE.
BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND
POSSIBLY TURNING NORTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS. THIS IS OF COURSE
DEPENDANT ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND THE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES BUT FOR THE
TIME BEING WILL KEEP IT GENERAL WITH INCREASING POPS/CLOUDS/WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE WRN ATLC...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 66W.
THE UPPER PATTERN IS VERY DIFFLUENT OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN THE
UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM
HISPANIOLA TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE SUPPORTING SFC PATTERN CONSISTS
OF A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N70W
AND CONTINUING SW TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
25N79W. THIS LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES W TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A VERY STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT PERSIST OVER THE WRN ATLC
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH SEAS AT THE OUTER CANAVERAL BUOY 41010
RUNNING IN THE 15 FT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE
DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WRN ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RELAX AND VEER THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS THE LOW NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS MOVES INTO THE GULF.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Extremeweatherguy]

ull has developed just west of sw florida over gulf of mexico looking at satillite you can see your system not tropical. might even be some rotation over western cuba.

It didn't just "develop" right now. The ULL has been there since the beginning.

[bwhorton2007]

look at water vapor over western cuba something is going on there.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL hits SE Louisiana

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a complete look at many of the latest models...

18z NAM = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... phase1.png

18z UKMET = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... phase1.png

12z NOGAPS = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... phase1.png

12z CMC = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... phase1.png

18z GFS = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

18z GFDL = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z mm5fsu45a = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

18z BAMs = https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

General model consensus still looks to be toward TX or LA. The BAMs and LBAR are the outliers right now showing a hit to FL, MS or AL. It will really all depend on where this starts to get it's act together though. We should know much more by Wednesday (when something will probably be trying to organize).

[wobblehead]

No systems thus far have passed over the GOMEX loop current. I'm curious as to what impact, if any, the loop will have on 90L if the two meet.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

All I have to do is just go to the store and get a bunch of supplies and all this tropical, non-tropical and sub-tropical stuff will just go away from us. That what has happened the last 3 times I went to the store.

Oops forgot about Humberto. Didn't work that time...

[Emmett_Brown]

Still nothing organized on radar. The lowering pressures E of FL have no well defined center yet.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Here in St Augustine, blustery squall moving through. Feels really tropical. Low topped rapidly moving storms with torrential downpours.

Wouldnt be suprised to see a low take shape over the Bahamas tomorrow. Any low that we see tonight near E coast FL is just a small low within the overall gyre that is swallowing the entire W Atlantic, IMO.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

look at water vapor over western cuba something is going on there.

Thats an upper level low. Have a peek on water vapor via SSD NOAA, but turn on "HDW-High". That shows high level winds.

[BigA]

As bad as the CMC is, I wonder if it develops a low right near Florida and then the second storm from the stuff way to the east of Florida in the western Atlantic. Although I discount the solution the CMC gives as highly improbable, it may be on to something in the idea that maybe something will form more to the east, not near Florida.

Just my thoughts.

[southerngale]

All I have to do is just go to the store and get a bunch of supplies and all this tropical, non-tropical and sub-tropical stuff will just go away from us. That what has happened the last 3 times I went to the store.

Since Humberto? Or did you not go to the store for the one that actually hit us?


It would be so rare for something to come this far west, this late in the season, I'm not the least bit worried about it. Besides, it doesn't look like it will amount to much. And yes, I know, things can change, and I'll be watching, because well.... it's what I do. lol


*Edit - Well, I hit the quote button before you edited your post, then got up to do something real quick. So disregard the Humberto question.

[TampaFl]

2100Z Surface Anaylsis Map Courtesty of the HPC (HydroMeteorlogical Prediction Center):

[ronjon]

EWG, I noticed most of the globals are developing the low near Cuba while the BAMs are initialized near Andros Island. GFS develops it near the Keys. You're right, depends on where the actual LLC establishes itself for utlimate track in the GOM.

[bwhorton2007]

dolebot ive been trying to tell people the reason for the winds is a pressure gradiant nothing at all tropical. As for fast moving clouds probably scud which is common during rainy weather.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

All I have to do is just go to the store and get a bunch of supplies and all this tropical, non-tropical and sub-tropical stuff will just go away from us. That what has happened the last 3 times I went to the store.

Since Humberto? Or did you not go to the store for the one that actually hit us?


It would be so rare for something to come this far west, this late in the season, I'm not the least bit worried about it. Besides, it doesn't look like it will amount to much. And yes, I know, things can change, and I'll be watching, because well.... it's what I do. lol



*Edit - Well, I hit the quote button before you edited your post, then got up to do something real quick. So disregard the Humberto question.

No, I had supplies for Humberto, but from a normal shopping trip I had made the Sunday before.

I am watching, too, southerngale. Since Humberto and of course, Rita, I don't stop watching until Greg says so

[bwhorton2007]

to me this whole mess is a reaction to the ull nothing else.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the radar from Miami there's a LOT of shear. It's very apparent on radar. Doesn't look like anything until the ULL can move away. Maybe on Wednesday we'll have something....

[hurricanetrack]

What's up with the GFDL? It had it and dropped it but you can still see some low pressure going on in to LA while the fine mesh area stops updating. Wonder why?