Texas winter: Any early thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

A brief update: I just added the winter of 95/96 to my original post at the top. I had forgotten to include it initially, but it is there now. That winter is memorable b/c it is the last time IAH officially hit the teens (and it was during a La Nina event).

[PhillyWX]

I don't think we'll see a 95-96 repeat...the nina appears to be stronger. 74-75, 98-99 seem to be better fits I think for Nina...possibly 98-99 being a bit warmer than I think it will be.

[jasons2k]

I have a few thoughts.

The first "real" front will hit in November.

EWG will come on here and post every run of the GFS showing a historic snow for Houston Metro.

Portstorm and I will be hammering the NWS offices accross the state and wish the old timers at NWS Brownsville were still around to talk about long term pattern recognition without the computer models.

And Air Force Met will come on here a slap all of us down to reality.

So be it another typical winter coming up on Storm 2K.

You forgot about me standing in my front yard with a blow torch!!!!

This is a good thread. I hope it's mild.

[Portastorm]

You may get your blow torch Jason if Phillywx is right about this coming winter being similar to 98-99. Take a look at how warm that winter was for Texas:

[img][/img]

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

You may get your blow torch Jason if Phillywx is right about this coming winter being similar to 98-99. Take a look at how warm that winter was for Texas:

[img][/img]

That would be a nationwide "winter cancel."

Yuck!

[Extremeweatherguy]

'98-'99, though generally warm, was not quite a winter cancel. Here is the breakdown by month at IAH to prove it:

December - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/iah ... dec98d.htm

January - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/iah ... jan99d.htm

February - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/iah ... feb99d.htm

# of days with lows below 40˚: 28
# of freezes: 8
# of hard freezes: 2
# of days with highs below 50˚: 8
# of days with highs below 40˚: 2

[Portastorm]

Again, what piques my interest is that even in the strong La Nina winters ... there appears to be at least one, significant Arctic outbreak that impacts south Texas. Of course, outside of those few days, the winters look quite warm and drier than average.

In Dec 98, the Arctic event in Austin dropped temps the evening of Dec. 22nd some 50 degrees. The next two days followed with light icing and temps at or below freezing. We also had our usual multi-car pileup downtown on I-35 during that event.

[double D]

I just want it to be cold on Thanksgiving and Christmas time, otherwise I like it kind of mild.

Anyone want to bet on snow for Easter this year?

[Portastorm]

I just want it to be cold on Thanksgiving and Christmas time, otherwise I like it kind of mild.

Anyone want to bet on snow for Easter this year?

Hey double D, I see that sig of yours has changed locations from Fredericksburg to Austin. Have we lost one of our great Hill Country winter weather reporters?

[Portastorm]

Another La Nina winter that is being referenced by some is 1950-51.

Let's take a look. Dec. 1950 was cooler than you might expect:



Jan. 1951 starts looking a little warmer:



And Feb 1951 looks like a cross between Dec. 1950/Jan. 1951:




... So, the end result is a more "average" looking winter for us in the southern Plains as compared to the 1998-99 result. This is going to be interesting!

[double D]

Hey Portastorm, yeah we did make the move about two months ago. Just more opportunities in Austin, and I figured we are just an hour away to visit Fredericksburg when we felt like it. We are loving it here in Austin so far!

Is anybody else getting excited for our first real cold front next weekend. The GFS has been pretty consistent on bringing it through Texas. It seems like we are overdue on a good cold front.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another La Nina winter that is being referenced by some is 1950-51.

Let's take a look. Dec. 1950 was cooler than you might expect:



Jan. 1951 starts looking a little warmer:



And Feb 1951 looks like a cross between Dec. 1950/Jan. 1951:




... So, the end result is a more "average" looking winter for us in the southern Plains as compared to the 1998-99 result. This is going to be interesting!

yeah, JB referenced this one today (as well as '98-'99) in his morning post. One big thing about the 1950/1951 winter in Texas was the "mega-freeze" during late January and early February. Houston stayed below freezing for over 120 hours during that event and a major ice storm also crippled the region...it was one of the worst winter-weather events in SE Texas history.

Here is some info. from the Houston NWS...

1951 ICE STORM - JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2, 1951

-THE TEMPERATURE IN HOUSTON DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ON JANUARY 29 AND DID NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FEBRUARY 2. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS 123 HOUR PERIOD WAS 28.0 DEGREES

-1.42 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL DURING THIS COLD SPELL PRODUCING ONE OF THE WORST ICE STORMS IN CITY HISTORY RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK LOSSES

-COLLEGE STATION REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AND GALVESTON REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/hol ... undred.htm

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/2007_2008 ... er_outlook

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! That is kind of a weird prediction from the Farmer's Almanac. That would be almost the complete opposite of what a La Nina winter should look like.

[JonathanBelles]

wow! That is kind of a weird prediction from the Farmer's Almanac. That would be almost the complete opposite of what a La Nina winter should look like.

I'm happy with it, stop complaining! lol

[Opal storm]

I like that map too, our past 2 seasons have been on the mild side. Like to see another 04 type winter.

wow! That is kind of a weird prediction from the Farmer's Almanac. That would be almost the complete opposite of what a La Nina winter should look like.

Mother nature is also weird, she doesn't go by climo or records she does whatever she wants.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just getting ready for ya, Portastorm.

Might have a significant front next week if you believe Accuweather numbers

[gboudx]

Jeff Lindner(pro met in Houston) is also discussing this front for the weekend. I'm onboard with it too. Temps should really cool down Sunday into next week. And if you believe the accuwx temps, DFW will have highs in the upper-60's 14th and 15th. How awesome would that be?

[HarlequinBoy]

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/2007_2008 ... er_outlook

Well that's um, interesting..

[double D]

Wow! what a change from the San antonio/Austin NWS, yesterday they were calling for a strong cold front with highs in the upper 70's to low 80's for Sunday and Monday. Now they are just saying a "wind shift with a weak front" with highs in the upper 80's and lows in the upper 60's. That's a pretty drastic change from yesterday.

I haven't looked at the models in a couple of days, so I'm assuming that they had a change of tune about cool weather. What's new?