After 90L: Looks like Canadian has friends

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, for those who don't know- the Canadian model shows some honking system forming near where Rita did in a few days. Now, and I don't know if this is the first time it's seen it, the 00Z GFS shows a nice low in the same area at the same time:

GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=108hr

And this time around, there is not a bunch of upper level low nonsense to completely defuse the process before it gets started. Note too that the NAM shows this to some degree as does the world-famous JMA from Japan.

I might be late on seeing all of this but watching these wanna-be systems takes its toll....anyhow, this might be something of real significance. Time will.....

[hurricanetrack]

Wow- at 156 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

That is interesting to say the least.

And, ooooooooooh! Look at 200mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

Now we might have something to really get concerned about. Still a ways off but for once the CMC might have cracked the code. Let's see where this ends up with mr. GFS.

[hurricanetrack]

By the way- guess what would be directly underneath supposed low in the GOM?

You guessed it- Loop Current.

[BigA]

Looks interesting. I wonder if the models interpret the giant mass of convection stretching for 600 miles north of Hispanola, and associated with a frontal boundary (I think) as coalessing and organizing into a tropical system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say looking at the way things have been, there is only a very very slightly chance of this happening. The Gfs has blown it alot at development after 48 hours this year...I don't think this will be more then a tropical storm...But who knows, just have to wait.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, this time around, there is nothing but anti-cyclonic flow all around this system. It shows up (the supposed low) at the surface, 850mb and 500mb very nicely. For a week out now, looking at the 168 hr map, this is not bad and not too far fetched.

Considering too that it aligns almost spot on to the CMC and JMA models, why not? You all knew we could not go to the well this many times without something big happening. Now that is very pre-mature for me to say that this will be big- but with a pattern change like this in the upper levels, this might be the first serious threat since Humberto.

[BigA]

Does anyone have a link to the JMA models? I'd be very interested in seeing them.

Much Thanks.

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW the 200mb maps show an anti-cyclone, rather large too, covering the Gulf region, not perfect, but much better than we have seen, through 228 hours.

This will be quite interesting to see especially if the other models, Euro, etc. latch on and run with it. Nothing to be too alarmed about just yet- but this is not some 10 day wild idea that the GFS has. It starts this low out fairly early in the cycle and it fits the pattern. Look at that mess well east of 90L. Do you think all that energy will just go away? Also, somewhere in this mess might be the heat and energy from Karen and a whole bunch of other "ghosts" from the '07 season. It is October...so I had to put that in there....

[Stormcenter]

Isn't there suppose to be a very strong front coming down south into the GOM by next Sunday. If that is the case then I don't see this making it that far west into the GOM. If this
were to pan out (unlikely but who knows.) then it would be more of FL. panhandle eastward event. IMO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

FWIW the 200mb maps show an anti-cyclone, rather large too, covering the Gulf region, not perfect, but much better than we have seen, through 228 hours.

This will be quite interesting to see especially if the other models, Euro, etc. latch on and run with it. Nothing to be too alarmed about just yet- but this is not some 10 day wild idea that the GFS has. It starts this low out fairly early in the cycle and it fits the pattern. Look at that mess well east of 90L. Do you think all that energy will just go away? Also, somewhere in this mess might be the heat and energy from Karen and a whole bunch of other "ghosts" from the '07 season. It is October...so I had to put that in there....

Remember that the models are very very very bad in forecasting Anticyclone formation. So its very possible in the 7-10 days from now intill then, that the tutt will back into that area with 20-30 knot shear. Only a small or moderate sized ULL; only to be seen in the last 24-36 hours before this time could destroy it all. What I'm saying is look at the trend but its way to early to get excited about any real system. If all models get into agreement, maybe at 72-96 hours things can be tooken more seriously. Intill then its a wait and see.

[hurricanetrack]

I agree with you there. Looks to far west at this time of year- but there is always that one...

Reminds me of a quote from Max Mayfield one time on MSNBC. The guy with the bow-tie was grilling Max about some hurricane weakening as it hit the Gulf Coast- maybe Katrina, maybe Ivan in 2004. In any case, he asked Max, "Why do all of the hurricanes that hit the United States weaken just before landfall"?

Max answered with this:

"They all do except for the ones that don't".

[Vortex]

The pattern would take any system east of the bahamas and send it west or even wsw the next 7 days..Something will come out of the area E of the bahamas. The question is TD, TS, or Hurricane. The pattern supports at minimum a strong TS in the Bahamas in 3 days...

[robert_88]

I agree with you there. Looks to far west at this time of year- but there is always that one...

Reminds me of a quote from Max Mayfield one time on MSNBC. The guy with the bow-tie was grilling Max about some hurricane weakening as it hit the Gulf Coast- maybe Katrina, maybe Ivan in 2004. In any case, he asked Max, "Why do all of the hurricanes that hit the United States weaken just before landfall"?

Max answered with this:

"They all do except for the ones that don't".

True!!! A very smart and wise comment from one of the best.

[Stormcenter]

The pattern would take any system east of the bahamas and send it west or even wsw the next 7 days..Something will come out of the area E of the bahamas. The question is TD, TS, or Hurricane. The pattern supports at minimum a strong TS in the Bahamas in 3 days...

I'm not buying into that at all with this coming up early next week.

From the NWS Mobile, AL discussion

THE NEXT SYSTEM WE WILL WATCH IS A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO ESSENTIALLY PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The pattern would take any system east of the bahamas and send it west or even wsw the next 7 days..Something will come out of the area E of the bahamas. The question is TD, TS, or Hurricane. The pattern supports at minimum a strong TS in the Bahamas in 3 days...

I'm not buying into that at all with this coming up early next week.

From the NWS Mobile, AL discussion

THE NEXT SYSTEM WE WILL WATCH IS A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO ESSENTIALLY PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

It would not at all suprize me at all if a frontal system moved all this out into the Atlantic. I would watch a weak tropical storm form at 24/75 some time early night week...Mostly from the energy off in that area...I don't expect it to be to favorable.

We will see if the set up the models are showing is fact. As of yet we need to follow the trend.

[hurricanetrack]

I love this. As predictable as the tides comes a set of folks who cannot see this thread for what it is- just a notion that something may develop. Of course it might not. We all know that. I might not live through the night, but chances are very good that I will. But people don't send me emails telling me all the reasons why I might not wake up in the morning.

I am keenly aware of how fragile this hurricane season has been in terms of getting something off the ground near the U.S. Instead of me trying to mount a defense against these "no way, no how" posts from others, I will just say this: time will tell.

[robert_88]

I enjoy watching you guys at Hurricanetrack Live and I hope you are able to research and intercept a storm that is more organized than what Gabrielle was. Awesome site!!!| It has been very boring since 2006 pretty much for the HIRT team. Humberto strengthened too quick and didn't give you enough time or you guys could of had a shot with that one.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, I will play along for just a little bit. What's an hour less of sleep anyhow? This is what I do- the hurricane thing- so why not...

Here is the 00Z GFS 500mb map at 126 hours. That would be Sunday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

No cold front plowing SE towards the Deep South. Instead, a nice 588 ridge firmly established over the Deep South.

How about 144 hours?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

Nope, still no cold front or major buckling of the ridge planted in the East. Good energy though coming in to the frame from the upper midwest.

Now, let's see 168 hours out, a full week from tonight:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Still no cold front coming south. The ridge erodes some but is still quite dominate over the eastern part of the country.

That's where I will stop. More than a week out is too much for even me to bear. So, while I am not sure where this cold front is that was mentioned in the AFD, I am sure as to what tonight's GFS maps show and that is a continuation of the extended summer that we have had east of the Rockies.

Is there a chance that tonight's run is way off base? Sure. But we all know that and realize these things can change. It's the weather- it always changes. But for now, the 00z run of the GFS says ridge in the east for at least the next week. Let's take a look at what tomorrow night's GFS says at about this same time. Gives us something to do while awaiting the next move of 90L and other players out in the great Atlantic Ocean.

[hurricanetrack]

I enjoy watching you guys at Hurricanetrack Live and I hope you are able to research and intercept a storm that is more organized than what Gabrielle was. Awesome site!!!| It has been very boring since 2006 pretty much for the HIRT team. Humberto strengthened too quick and didn't give you enough time or you guys could of had a shot with that one.

We all appreciate that. As most know, I work with Mike Watkins and Jesse Bass and have an intern named Todd from New Bern, NC. We all want to get out and do what we do best and so it is frustrating to see another in-active landfall season of significant storms along the U.S. coast. It's not because we are not making any money- there is little to no money in this, only enough to fund the work. We do it because of the science and the fact that too many reporters are out there with absolutely no idea of what they are talking about. When is the last time The Weather Channel had a 10-meter wind tower with them to report what is really going on in a hurricane? And so forth...we enjoy our work but realize that when we go to work in the field, that means someone could be in danger of losing it all. We take that part very seriously and that is why we donate so much time to education and preparedness. 90% of our time is spent in the non-hurricane days just talking to people and providing resources to them (such as storm2k) where they can learn. The more you know, the better you can be prepared.

Anyhow, we are eager to put our technology to work. We have quite a system now and when there is a hurricane landfall again, we will be able to provide excellent on-site data, live video and other info as it happens. But again, the down side is that we kind of need a hurricane in order to do all of that...but at least I don't cause hurricanes.

As far as Humberto- that one got past me. There was no way to know and get to Texas in time. That makes it even tougher since so far, that is the only hurricane to hit the U.S. since Wilma. But I can assure you, all of you, that when the next one does hit, my team will do our best to provide high-end data from state-of-the-art equipment. Nothing is more important than data on the ground when a hurricane makes landfall (in terms of the science) and the void of good ground data is staggering. We do our best and others are at it too- U of FL, Clemson, Texas Tech, others. We are just part of the puzzle during hurricane landfalls. But with no hurricanes hitting to speak of, it is kind of boring....and that's just being honest.

[Meso]

Here's the 00z CMC at 138 Hours