WPAC: Typhoon KROSA

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to 45kts now and expected to be a typhoon within 48hrs. Will be interesting to see how close this is forecast to pass Taiwan once it gets moving.

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0715 KROSA (0715)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 16.8N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 18.1N 129.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 040600UTC 20.3N 128.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 050600UTC 22.2N 126.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

JTWC have upgraded to Typhoon 17W (surprising, given JMA are at 45 kt), and are forecasting 115 kt at 120 hours.

[CrazyC83]

JTWC have upgraded to Typhoon 17W (surprising, given JMA are at 45 kt), and are forecasting 115 kt at 120 hours.

That suggests they see different things with this system, since 45 kt (10-min) usually only translates into about 55 kt (1-min).

[HURAKAN]

Impressive:



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[CrazyC83]

Looks like a rapidly-intensifying typhoon to me. It should be upgraded significantly by the JMA at their next update...too bad they don't have Hurricane Hunters (or Typhoon Hunters) out there...

[Chacor]

Is that an eye? O_o

[HURAKAN]

Very wide, but yes, that's an eye.

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[HURAKAN]

Opened to the SE.



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[Chacor]

Somehow held at 45 knots at the update bulletin. We'll see at the next full advisory.

640
WTPQ21 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0715 KROSA (0715)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 16.9N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 18.3N 129.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 041200UTC 20.3N 127.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 051200UTC 22.3N 126.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

T3.5 from JMA at 18z, so probably an STS.

[Chacor]

392
WTPQ21 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0715 KROSA (0715) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 16.9N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 18.8N 129.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 041800UTC 21.3N 127.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 051800UTC 23.3N 126.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Derek Ortt]

it looks more like a TC that is missing a core

[HurricaneRobert]

It looks kind of subtropical.

[CrazyC83]

02/2030 UTC 16.8N 130.7E T4.5/4.5 KROSA -- West Pacific Ocean

[whereverwx]

For a moment it looked subtropical, but it's starting to get its act together.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a solid Cat 2-3 typhoon at least...

[CrazyC83]

03/0130 UTC 17.1N 130.0E T4.5/4.5 KROSA -- West Pacific Ocean

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to 55kts now and expected to be a typhoon soon.

WTPQ21 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0715 KROSA (0715)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 17.0N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 19.4N 128.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 050000UTC 21.7N 126.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 060000UTC 23.7N 125.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[wxmann_91]

It's looking very loose. Suspect it has gulped big tons of dry air. Not really a normal eye, I would say, but an eye nonetheless. Suspect this is around Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 strength.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say 65-70 mph right now...But the eye should tighten up over the next 24 hours as it moistens the Atmopshere inside of it. I expect this could go to cat3-4 strength, with in the next 36 hours.