After 90L: Looks like Canadian has friends

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skysummit
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#21 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:01 am

The 06z GFS is still showing development east of the Bahamas:
06z GFS @ 72 Hours

06z GFS @ 84 Hours
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#22 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:16 am

06z @ 108 Hours....moved west-southwest across Cuba and into the Caribbean.
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#23 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:18 am

06z GFS @ 126 Hours...still in the Caribbean.
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#24 Postby crownweather » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:23 am

It seems that the 06Z GFS model may be on the right road as climatologically speaking, the western Caribbean is the most likely spot for tropical cyclone development.
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#25 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:24 am

06 GFS @ 138 Hours...beginning to move northwest.
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#26 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:30 am

06z GFS @ 150 Hours...moving into the gulf under light upper level winds.
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#27 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:37 am

06z GFS @ 162 Hours
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#28 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:41 am

06z GFS @ 216 Hours...western Gulf. I'll stop here since we're talking real long term now :)
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Re: After 90L: Looks like Canadian has friends

#29 Postby nequad » Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:41 am

The Canadian has been honking strong hurricanes for just about every run for the past month or so, and so far not one has materialized.
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#30 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:20 am

12 Z NAM


Take a look at how favorable the area near the bahamas will become the next few days...

200 MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif
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Re:

#31 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:57 am

Vortex wrote:12 Z NAM


Take a look at how favorable the area near the bahamas will become the next few days...

200 MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif



FYI,
nam and cmc shouldnt be used for tropics per wxman57, no euro per derek ortt
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Re: Re:

#32 Postby x-y-no » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:01 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:12 Z NAM


Take a look at how favorable the area near the bahamas will become the next few days...

200 MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif



FYI,
nam and cmc shouldnt be used for tropics per wxman57, no euro per derek ortt



Looking at the upper air forecast of the NAM a mere 30 hours out is hardly the same as relying on it for predicting tropical storm development.
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Re: Re:

#33 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:16 am

x-y-no wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:12 Z NAM


Take a look at how favorable the area near the bahamas will become the next few days...

200 MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif



FYI,
nam and cmc shouldnt be used for tropics per wxman57, no euro per derek ortt



Looking at the upper air forecast of the NAM a mere 30 hours out is hardly the same as relying on it for predicting tropical storm development.


maybe we should start a thread about who uses what models and then include exceptions to the rules to help keep it all straight
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#34 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:49 am

12Z GFS

H+42

Continues to show development ENE of the bahamas and a very favorable upper-air pattern..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif
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#35 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:52 am

H+48

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
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#36 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:58 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

Organizing and moving West Tward FL at 60 Hr.
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#37 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:12 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

84 Hr SE Bahamas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

96hrs FL Straights..

This means this system would be moving SW for 72 hrs?
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#38 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:17 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

120 Hrs..all the way to the Yuk channel..LOL..Interesting..
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Re: Re:

#39 Postby artist » Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:20 am

jlauderdal wrote:

maybe we should start a thread about who uses what models and then include exceptions to the rules to help keep it all straight



viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467

that thread does talk about the different models and when they should be used, etc.
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#40 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 11:23 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

136 Landfall in the Yuk..Ill stop here because its gettign a little funny now..
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