Texas winter: Any early thoughts?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

See the Lucy with the football post above.

The GFS is the football.

[Portastorm]

With La Nina in full swing, I'm going to be more skeptical than ever of Lucy (i.e. GFS scenarios of cold and ice/snow for south Texas) this winter. Based on the climatology I've seen, I'll say we get one 2-3 day period of real winter and then the rest of the time will be mild and mostly dry. I also might add that with a mild/dry winter, all of our allergies will probably be horrible!

[gboudx]

With La Nina in full swing, I'm going to be more skeptical than ever of Lucy (i.e. GFS scenarios of cold and ice/snow for south Texas) this winter. Based on the climatology I've seen, I'll say we get one 2-3 day period of real winter and then the rest of the time will be mild and mostly dry. I also might add that with a mild/dry winter, all of our allergies will probably be horrible!

Same here. I'll buy the winter weather forecast when I see it falling from the sky. And no joke on the allergies. The ragweed is terrible. I take a nasal spray and an oral tablet for allergies and combined I'm still having some problems right now. Need some rain to wash this junk out.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Winter Cancel!

[Taffy]

Winter Cancel!
Winter Cancel!

ROFLMAO That was exactly the laugh I needed this morning.

Now, if you would just cancel the tropics, maybe Florida could dry up.

[Portastorm]

Winter Cancel!

C'mon CC, you gotta wait until at least Thanksgiving to say that!

[richtrav]

Hmm, 1951 was the most devastating freeze in the history of lower South Texas, not because it was the coldest freeze ever but because it followed a long mild period which had brought the citrus and other plants out of dormancy. Still, with the way the winters have been going I'm not convinced another megafreeze like that is in the cards for this winter. Interestingly, hard freezes had also occurred at the end of January in 1948 and 1949 on similar dates

[Portastorm]

Hmm, 1951 was the most devastating freeze in the history of lower South Texas, not because it was the coldest freeze ever but because it followed a long mild period which had brought the citrus and other plants out of dormancy. Still, with the way the winters have been going I'm not convinced another megafreeze like that is in the cards for this winter. Interestingly, hard freezes had also occurred at the end of January in 1948 and 1949 on similar dates

Are you talking about the late January 1951 freeze?

Indeed that was a bad one for Texas. Here in Austin, we set a record low of 16 on January 29, 1951 ... and then the next day we set a record for lowest maximum temp at 21 degrees!

[boca]

I remember last year when Texas got ice storm after ice storm. I don't think that will happen as often as last year, maybe a cold rain. La Nina is here and its hard to predict what will happen. Look at the 2007 hurricane season and its a La Nina year.

[Portastorm]

It's interesting to note that JB in his latest column is saying that the Arctic regions will have a brutally cold winter (colder than normal for them) coming up and that the Polar jet will be strong. What does that mean for us?

Well, I think it means that while a moderate-to-strong La Nina means above normal temps and below normal precip for Texas ... if JB is right ... when we do see a moment or two of real winter, that "moment" will be rather dramatic with a screaming jet bringing icy cold air down the Plains into Texas. And those analogue years we have been talking about would support this thought.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's interesting to note that JB in his latest column is saying that the Arctic regions will have a brutally cold winter (colder than normal for them) coming up and that the Polar jet will be strong. What does that mean for us?

Well, I think it means that while a moderate-to-strong La Nina means above normal temps and below normal precip for Texas ... if JB is right ... when we do see a moment or two of real winter, that "moment" will be rather dramatic with a screaming jet bringing icy cold air down the Plains into Texas. And those analogue years we have been talking about would support this thought.

That is what I think will happen too. We have seen it many times during past La Nina events, and I believe we will see it again this year...a mild winter overall with a few good shots of brutally cold arctic air reaching down into TX on a few ocassions.

[Ptarmigan]

Here are a few memorable La Nina winters (in terms of major events in the Houston area)...

Winter of 1947-1948 (La Nina)
-From Jan. 27th until Jan. 29th (1948), Houston remained below freezing for a total of 58 hours.

Winter of 1950-1951 (La Nina)
-From Jan. 29th until Feb. 3rd (1951), Houston remained below freezing for a total of 123 hours. During this period, Houston also recieved one of it's worst ice storms in history.
-Houston hit a low of 15˚ on Feb. 2nd, 1951.

Winter of 1964-1965 (La Nina)
-Houston recieved a glaze of ice on Feb. 24th, 1965.

Winter of 1970-1971 (La Nina)
-Houston recieved a glaze of ice on Jan. 7/8, 1971.

Winter of 1988-1989 (Strong La Nina)
-From Feb. 3rd until Feb. 8th (1989), Houston remained below freezing for a total of 110 hours. During this period, a glaze of ice and a trace of snow fell across the city.



And here is a look at a few of the most recent La Nina winters..

1995-1996
-On December 9th, 1995 a strong blue norther rips through dropping temperatures from the mid 70s in the morning to the upper 30s by midnight.
-IAH hits 27˚ (hard freeze) on December 11th, 1995.
-High temperatures below 60˚ are recorded starting on December 19th and ending on December 25th. This is a 6-day stretch of chilly conditions.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 7th, 1996.
-IAH hits 19˚ (very hard freeze) on January 8/9th, 1996.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 19/20th, 1996.
-IAH records a high of 39˚ and a low of 31˚ on February 2nd, 1996. Rain and fog is also reported for a good part of the day.
-IAH records a high of 39˚ and a low of 25˚ (hard freeze) on February 3rd, 1996. IAH also records a trace of snow (0.01") during the early morning.
-IAH hits 22˚ (hard freeze) on February 4/5th, 1996.

1998-1999
-IAH records a high of 36˚ on December 23rd, 1998.
-IAH records a high of 39˚ on December 24th, 1998.
-IAH hits 27˚ (hard freeze) on December 26th, 1998.
-IAH hits 25˚(hard freeze) on January 5th, 1999.

2000-2001
-IAH records a high of 39˚ on December 12th, 2000.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on December 30th, 2000.
-IAH records a high of 36˚and a low of 32˚ (with precip.) on January 1st, 2001.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 3rd, 2001.
-IAH hits 26˚ (hard freeze) on January 20th, 2001.


So, while overall the winter may be warm and dry, it is certainly not uncommon to get a few strong arctic blasts into Texas during a La Nina Winter. In fact, on occassion, you will even get a record-breaking, memorable event...such as in Jan/Feb 1951 and Feb 1989. Will this year feature another one of these memorable events? Time will tell...

Interesting data, EWG. Where did you get the data, especially before 1989 and excluding 1951? I believe that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) plays a role in giving Texas freezing winters in La Nina winters. Here are the indices at the time of the freeze listed by EWG

Here's NAO Indices at the time of the freeze.
January 1948
0.6

January-February 1951
1.0 1.4 = 1.2

February 1965
-3.7

January 1971
-1.2

February 1989
3.2

December 1995
-3.8

January 1996
-1.8

February 1996
0.9

December 1998
1.6

January 1999
1.3

December 2000
-2.2

January 2001
-0.1

NAO Indices

It is split down the middle when it comes to NAO influence in La Nina winters.


Now, let's look at the PDO role in this. This time it is PDO indices. Same as above.

January 1948
-0.11

January-February 1951
-1.54 -1.06 = -1.3

February 1965
-1.16

January 1971
-1.90

February 1989
-1.02

December 1995
0.16

January 1996
0.59

February 1996
0.75

December 1998
-0.44

January 1999
-0.32

December 2000
0.52

January 2001
0.60

PDO Indices

A more negative PDO is more likely to give Texas cold winters in La Nina years. 7 of the 12 were negative PDOs.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I found the information using these sources...

http://www.wxresearch.com/freezhtm.htm

http://216.38.80.20/hgx/climate.htm

http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/cdoselect ... egionabbv=

http://www.almanac.com/weatherhistory/r ... &year=2007

[Portastorm]

Ptarmigan, you've presented some very interesting pieces of data for consideration. Of course, predicting winter is much more than knowing there's a La Nina or El Nino. We have the SOI, the PDO, the NAO ... and a bunch of other acronyms which escape me right now!

As far as the PDO ... that's really fascinating about how a negative PDO tends to mean a colder winter for Texas. Will keep a close eye on those indices from here on out.

Thanks again for the great info!

[Ptarmigan]

Ptarmigan, you've presented some very interesting pieces of data for consideration. Of course, predicting winter is much more than knowing there's a La Nina or El Nino. We have the SOI, the PDO, the NAO ... and a bunch of other acronyms which escape me right now!

As far as the PDO ... that's really fascinating about how a negative PDO tends to mean a colder winter for Texas. Will keep a close eye on those indices from here on out.

Thanks again for the great info!

Your welcome Portastorm. I used to live in Austin as a college student. Great place!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ptarmigan, you've presented some very interesting pieces of data for consideration. Of course, predicting winter is much more than knowing there's a La Nina or El Nino. We have the SOI, the PDO, the NAO ... and a bunch of other acronyms which escape me right now!

As far as the PDO ... that's really fascinating about how a negative PDO tends to mean a colder winter for Texas. Will keep a close eye on those indices from here on out.

Thanks again for the great info!

Anything is possible. The Indians might win the WS this year too.

[Portastorm]

Ptarmigan, you've presented some very interesting pieces of data for consideration. Of course, predicting winter is much more than knowing there's a La Nina or El Nino. We have the SOI, the PDO, the NAO ... and a bunch of other acronyms which escape me right now!

As far as the PDO ... that's really fascinating about how a negative PDO tends to mean a colder winter for Texas. Will keep a close eye on those indices from here on out.

Thanks again for the great info!

Anything is possible. The Indians might win the WS this year too.

Hey buddy ... I've been waiting for your post!

I won't go so far as to say my Tribe will win it all. The Red Sox are yet another giant we must slay. But hey, we slayed one already so who knows!

[cheezyWXguy]

what I think were gonna have this winter is basically normal temperature, but the wet weather will return as the southern jet gets more active and the fronts get stronger. However, im just gonna guess that we have a brief shot at cold/winter weather, with a better stronger shot in late january/early to mid february, since over the past 3-4 years, its been fairly common to have something along those lines

[Portastorm]

Ok, I know it's a 384-hour GFS run which should be taken with a grain of salt ... but hey Texas folks, check this out and where the 0-degree 850mb line is! Whoo-hoo!

[img][/img]

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ptarmigan, you've presented some very interesting pieces of data for consideration. Of course, predicting winter is much more than knowing there's a La Nina or El Nino. We have the SOI, the PDO, the NAO ... and a bunch of other acronyms which escape me right now!

As far as the PDO ... that's really fascinating about how a negative PDO tends to mean a colder winter for Texas. Will keep a close eye on those indices from here on out.

Thanks again for the great info!

Anything is possible. The Indians might win the WS this year too.

Hey buddy ... I've been waiting for your post!


Hey, your Tribe is tied 1-1 with the evil empire of the Northeast! Maybe their is hope for you and a cold Texas winter.
I won't go so far as to say my Tribe will win it all. The Red Sox are yet another giant we must slay. But hey, we slayed one already so who knows!