After 90L: Looks like Canadian has friends

[JTD]

I'd watch this one very very closely. Storms forming just east of the Bahamas have been very powerful historically.

[skysummit]

The 12z GFS is still developing the area east of the Bahamas. It begins developing the low in 36 hours, but show cyclonic in as little as 24 hours. Once closed, it brings it west-southwest toward the Keys and then across Cuba into the Caribbean under a 500mb high. Once in the Caribbean, conditions look to improve as a 200mb anticyclone builds over head and follows it west-northwest through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern gulf where it stalls for a day or so before it begins drifting west again.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

Todays 12z Canadian model run does not show the same scenario as yesterday,when it had a strong hurricane making landfall in Miami,but has a system forming near the Bahamas and moving WSW towards Western Cuba,Northern Yucatan and Southern Gulf.

[BigA]

I dont have trouble buying that a low may well form near the eastern Bahamas, but a track to the westsouthwest seems really unlikely this time of year. I guess it all depends on the strength of the high.

[jlauderdal]

12z CMC

Todays 12z Canadian model run does not show the same scenario as yesterday,when it had a strong hurricane making landfall in Miami,but has a system forming near the Bahamas and moving WSW towards Western Cuba,Northern Yucatan and Southern Gulf.

That SW movement for that long of a time doesn't seem realistic.

[stormchazer]

12z CMC

Todays 12z Canadian model run does not show the same scenario as yesterday,when it had a strong hurricane making landfall in Miami,but has a system forming near the Bahamas and moving WSW towards Western Cuba,Northern Yucatan and Southern Gulf.

That SW movement for that long of a time doesn't seem realistic.

I was wondering about the same thing as the High is not paticularly strong that far south. I wonder what that run was latching on to?

[Derek Ortt]

it is realistic... a strong ridge to the north will do that each and every time

I would not be surprised to see a strong TS or a hurricane forming from this area in fact. The chances of anything stronger depend how much, if any, time it spends over Cuba

[stormchazer]

I guess Derek answered that. It just did not seem that the model was depicting the boundry of the High being such to casue that kind of movement for that amount of time.

Guess thats why Derek spent all that time in school.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The ridge
may be aligned to drive it SW if it builds
to the northwest of it.

[cycloneye]

So,after many laughs to CMC,it well be the best model for this system as it has shown this for many runs.

[x-y-no]

So,after many laughs to CMC,it well be the best model for this system as it has shown this for many runs.

Yeah, but the problem is it spins up so many phantom storms that it's not at all useful for judging the chance of something forming.

As they say, even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.

[hurricanetrack]

This is how a lot of our 2005 bad girls formed: near the Bahamas and west to WSW they went. This one looks like it has a shot and I mean, come on, look at all that energy being bundled out near the Bahamas- just piling in there- a heap of dead invests, a TD or two and perhaps a corpse of Ingrid and Karen to boot.

[x-y-no]

A WSW into Cuba track looks quite plausible to me too. The globals seem to be pretty good at getting the strength of the mid-level ridging this year.

But I'd give about equal chance for it to shoot through the straights without hitting land. (and only small chance for SFL to be hit directly, although we may well get some weather from its passing)

[DESTRUCTION5]

A WSW into Cuba track looks quite plausible to me too. The globals seem to be pretty good at getting the strength of the mid-level ridging this year.

But I'd give about equal chance for it to shoot through the straights without hitting land. (and only small chance for SFL to be hit directly, although we may well get some weather from its passing)

I think this will all depend how far N it forms in the Bahamas..

[Stormcenter]

This is how a lot of our 2005 bad girls formed: near the Bahamas and west to WSW they went. This one looks like it has a shot and I mean, come on, look at all that energy being bundled out near the Bahamas- just piling in there- a heap of dead invests, a TD or two and perhaps a corpse of Ingrid and Karen to boot.

Well the good thing is that it's October 2nd and not August 26th so that in itself
makes me feel a lot better. As someone else posted the Canadian does not have
a good track record.

[jlauderdal]

it is realistic... a strong ridge to the north will do that each and every time

I would not be surprised to see a strong TS or a hurricane forming from this area in fact. The chances of anything stronger depend how much, if any, time it spends over Cuba

SW movement seems realistic but not for the duration of time the modeling depicts this time of the year.

[Dean4Storms]

Remember this is some of the first forecasts with a system that has yet to form. Dependant on where it forms and how deep it gets along with the ever changing possibilities of the strength and positioning of the ridge this track is more than likely going to change multiple times.

[deltadog03]

it is realistic... a strong ridge to the north will do that each and every time

I would not be surprised to see a strong TS or a hurricane forming from this area in fact. The chances of anything stronger depend how much, if any, time it spends over Cuba

SW movement seems realistic but not for the duration of time the modeling depicts this time of the year.

You HAVE to remember that the day to day weather dosn't give a HOOT about climatology says. Climo says we shouldn't have had that HOT of a summer in the SE. Fact is a ridge CAN and I am sure HAS driven a storm all the west to texas or mexico even in october. I see your point, but we can't just say well climo says no or this time of year says no...we have to look at the weather to determine that.

[jlauderdal]

it is realistic... a strong ridge to the north will do that each and every time

I would not be surprised to see a strong TS or a hurricane forming from this area in fact. The chances of anything stronger depend how much, if any, time it spends over Cuba

SW movement seems realistic but not for the duration of time the modeling depicts this time of the year.

You HAVE to remember that the day to day weather dosn't give a HOOT about climatology says. Climo says we shouldn't have had that HOT of a summer in the SE. Fact is a ridge CAN and I am sure HAS driven a storm all the west to texas or mexico even in october. I see your point, but we can't just say well climo says no or this time of year says no...we have to look at the weather to determine that.

IF a system does develop, lets REVIEW all of this in about a WEEK and see if the system actually makes it as far WEST as the model run in question today. I'm basing my original post as much on early long range runs having large ERRORS as much as I am on CLIMATOLOGY.